The Bundeswehr Reawakens

As Trump’s America shuns European entanglements, Germany rearms to stand up to the Russian bear.

Europe’s long holiday from history is over. With Donald Trump making noises about washing his hands off NATO, the transatlantic security architecture that protected the continent for nearly 80 years has begun to fracture since the beginning of the mercurial US President’s second innings. Into this breach Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor, has declared that his country will build “Europe’s strongest conventional army.”

Germany’s decision to rearm carries uncomfortable historical baggage. But history is no longer a reason for paralysis. Rather, it is a reminder of what happens when Europe fails to deter aggression. From Ukraine to the Baltics, the continent faces a grinding war, fraying alliances and the possible return of raw power politics. In that context, Berlin’s shift cannot be interpreted as bellicosity as in the 1930s.

For decades, Germany benefited from the ‘Pax Americana.’ The United States paid for Europe’s security, and Germany, with its skilled workforce and export machine, reaped the peace dividend. Defence budgets shrank. Conscription ended in 2011. The Bundeswehr hollowed out. Military readiness became an afterthought.

The result has been a wealthy, influential Germany that preferred diplomacy to deterrence and whose foreign policy posture was defined more by energy deals with Vladimir Putin’s Russia than by strategic responsibility.

That era is now dead with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump’s disdain for NATO has shattered the illusion that America will always show up. This has left Germany to do what many of its neighbours have long demanded: take responsibility for European defence, and pay for it.

Berlin currently spends about $68 billion annually on defence (roughly 2 percent of its GDP), finally meeting NATO’s minimum threshold. Now it aims to go further, investing hundreds of billions in modernising the Bundeswehr with more air defences, tanks, ships, drones and a domestic arms industry capable of supporting Europe’s strategic autonomy.

Europe’s 20th century was defined by German militarism. Yet today’s Germany is embedded in multilateral institutions, governed by constitutional checks and fundamentally committed to democratic norms. It is not tanks but timidity that has defined Berlin’s posture in recent decades.

Moreover, the balance of power has shifted. The United Kingdom, long a military heavyweight, has shrunk its forces. France, though willing, cannot sustain continental deterrence alone. The United States, distracted by China and riven by internal division, is no longer the dependable hegemon of the past. Europe must build its own shield and Germany is the only country with the industrial base, fiscal headroom and political heft to anchor it.

Markets have responded with enthusiasm. Rheinmetall, Germany’s biggest arms manufacturer, has seen its shares soar. Investors see the continent’s security challenges as structural, not cyclical. A long-term rearmament is inevitable.

Merz, often seen as a grey technocrat, has surprised many by grasping the scale of this historical inflection. His recent encounter with President Trump on the eve of the D-Day anniversary where he reminded the American leader that June 6th marked not defeat but liberation was a deft moment of statesmanship. “We know what we owe you,” he told Trump, while arguing that America must not abandon Ukraine. That blend of realism and resolve is precisely what Europe needs.

The Bundeswehr of tomorrow will not resemble the Wehrmacht of the past. It will serve under NATO command, with allies’ consent and democratic oversight. Nor will it be built for conquest. It is not Germany’s will to power that motivates this buildup, but Europe’s will to survive.

Strategic independence is no longer a slogan today. If America’s commitment to the alliance is now conditional, then Europe must learn to defend itself. Germany’s pivot, however belated, is the beginning of that reckoning.

For too long, Europe has asked what Germany might do if it ever remembered its strength. The question now is what Europe would do without it. In a world growing more dangerous by the day, the return of German hard power will have to be perceived as no threat but a lifeline.