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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

The Ceasefire Illusion

Updated: Mar 20, 2025

Until Hamas is eradicated, every ceasefire in Gaza is just an intermission in an unending war.

Hamas

Israel’s latest assault on Gaza, the heaviest since the ceasefire killing over 400 people, was swift and devastating. Hamas confirmed that Essam al-Dalis, the head of its government in Gaza, was among the dead. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, mincing no words, warned this was only the beginning and that Israel would no longer entertain the idea of diplomacy as an alternative to force.


Hamas, in turn, accused Israel of undermining mediation efforts, urging its allies to pressure the United States into restraining its client state. But Washington under Donald Trump has remained unmoved, holding Hamas responsible for the resumption of hostilities.


In the years since Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007, ceasefires have never led to a lasting peace. Hamas has always prioritized military confrontation over governance, diverting humanitarian aid to build tunnels and rockets instead of improving the lives of Palestinians. It embeds military infrastructure within civilian areas, ensuring that Palestinian casualties mount whenever Israel responds to attacks. The group’s strategy is not to seek peace but to perpetuate war, believing that ongoing conflict serves its long-term interests. Instead, they have provided Hamas with an opportunity to regroup, rearm, and prepare for the next confrontation. The latest breakdown was predictable. Israel sought to extend the first phase of a ceasefire agreement, but Hamas, still holding dozens of hostages, refused unless the second phase involving Israeli concessions was implemented.


The point – if it ever needed emphasizing – is that Hamas is not interested in a political settlement; it remains committed to Israel’s destruction. And as long as Hamas holds power, the people of Gaza will continue to suffer.


For those railing Israel and the IDF’s heavy-handed bombing of Gaza, recall that when the U.S.-led coalition sought to eliminate the Islamic State from Mosul and Raqqa, those cities were turned to rubble. Entire neighbourhoods were flattened in the battle to rid Iraq and Syria of the ISIS menace. There was no great outcry from Washington or the international community about the destruction of those cities because the world understood that eradicating ISIS was a moral and strategic imperative.


Why, then, does this logic not apply to Hamas? The group is, by all measures, just as radical and dangerous as ISIS. It has governed Gaza with an iron fist, suppressing dissent, diverting humanitarian aid to its military operations, and using Palestinian civilians as human shields.


History suggests that peace in the Middle East has only been possible when one side has suffered an unequivocal defeat. Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader who famously made peace with Israel, first launched the 1973 Yom Kippur War in an attempt to wipe the Jewish state off the map. Egypt initially made gains, but Israel regrouped and delivered a crushing defeat. It was only after that failure that Sadat realized military force was not a viable option. His subsequent peace treaty with Israel in 1979 transformed Egypt’s role in the region and remains one of the few enduring diplomatic successes in the Arab-Israeli conflict.


For years, the international community of ‘liberals’ have indulged the fantasy that Gaza’s suffering is the result of Israeli aggression alone. But the true architects of Palestinian misery are Hamas and its backers. The elites in the West – from student activists on varsity campuses to so-called Hollywood liberals - conflate Hamas with the Palestinian people, failing to recognize that the group is as much a threat to Palestinians as it is to Israel. The real tragedy is that Palestinians trapped under Hamas’s rule are unable to express dissent or seek an alternative future.


The only path to peace in Gaza is through Hamas’s total defeat. Palestinians must understand that terrorism and military confrontation will only bring them further suffering. Only then can a new political reality emerge - one in which Gaza is not a launchpad for rockets but a place where genuine statehood and economic stability can take root.

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