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By:

Abhijit Joshi

31 August 2024 at 10:09:24 am

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would...

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would surely be included: “Sharad Pawar ke siyasi faisle par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never assume you know Sharad Pawar's next political move). Few leaders in independent India have reinvented themselves as often, confounded both allies and adversaries with equal regularity, or remained politically relevant across nearly five decades quite like Sharad Pawar. Every major realignment in Maharashtra has, in one way or another, borne his imprint. Backstairs Intrigue That reputation has once again set the state’s political circles buzzing. A late-night meeting between senior NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) leader Jayant Patil and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, followed by indications that Pawar's party could extend conditional support to the Centre's proposed Delimitation Bill, has revived speculation that Maharashtra may be headed towards yet another political reshuffle. Supriya Sule has firmly dismissed suggestions that her party is preparing to join the NDA, insisting that any support for the Delimitation Bill would depend entirely on safeguards ensuring fairness for every state. Yet, the rumours persist. That, perhaps, is the enduring ‘Pawar effect.’ In Maharashtra, a single meeting involving Sharad Pawar is often enough to trigger discussions of an entirely new government. Pawar’s political career has consistently demonstrated that certainty is an illusion. In 1978, barely 38 years old, he engineered one of Maharashtra’s greatest political upsets. Breaking away from the Congress, he toppled the Vasantdada Patil government and stitched together the Progressive Democratic Front, or Pulod, by bringing together parties separated by ideology but united by arithmetic. He became the state’s youngest Chief Minister, a distinction that still defines his public image. That episode also revealed the two principles that have shaped his politics ever since. Ideology, for Pawar, has rarely been an immovable barrier. Political arithmetic has almost always mattered more. Equally, power has never been viewed as permanent. The pattern repeated itself through the decades. Pawar moved between Congress politics and regional politics with remarkable ease, served as India’s Defence Minister, broke away to establish the Nationalist Congress Party in 1999 over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin, spent nearly fifteen years governing alongside the Congress, and then stunned the political establishment yet again in 2019 by helping construct the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Few believed the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP could coexist under one roof. Pawar proved otherwise. Even the dramatic dawn swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis and the late Ajit Pawar in November 2019 ultimately enhanced Sharad Pawar’s reputation. Within days, he had reunited most of his fractured party and succeeded in installing Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. What initially appeared to be his biggest setback became another demonstration of his political resilience. Today, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is no longer the formidable organisation it was before the split of 2023. While he retains considerable public goodwill, national stature and a respectable parliamentary presence, his legislative strength within Maharashtra has diminished considerably, prompted questions about the party’s future. Reports suggest that sections within the NCP (SP) are increasingly uncomfortable with the prospect of remaining in perpetual opposition and favour exploring some form of understanding with the BJP. Pawar himself is believed to have resisted such suggestions, while Supriya Sule has repeatedly ruled out any immediate shift. Yet the existence of internal debate appears difficult to dismiss. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly asserted that there is no question of new entrants joining the Mahayuti. His statement reflects political logic. The BJP already enjoys numerical dominance alongside Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Bringing Sharad Pawar into the alliance may strengthen the NDA externally, but it could also generate fresh leadership ambitions, competing centres of influence and unnecessary internal tensions. Issue-Based Cooperation If there is any movement, therefore, it is more likely to begin with issue-based cooperation in Parliament than with an immediate formal alliance. That explains why the Delimitation Bill has assumed such significance. Supriya Sule has indicated that her party could support the legislation provided the Centre guarantees a uniform 50 percent increase in parliamentary seats for every state. The position differs from that adopted by several INDIA bloc partners and has naturally fuelled speculation. Yet issue-based support should not automatically be interpreted as political surrender. Sharad Pawar has rarely subscribed to the idea that opposition requires opposing every government initiative. Throughout his career he has maintained working relationships across party lines, often separating legislative cooperation from electoral competition. That flexibility has repeatedly helped him preserve political relevance even when his party's electoral fortunes fluctuated. If, despite present denials, Pawar eventually chooses to support or formally align with the NDA, the consequences would extend well beyond Maharashtra. For the INDIA bloc, it would represent perhaps the most damaging psychological blow in western India, depriving it of one of its most experienced strategists and consensus-builders. Congress would lose a veteran ally at precisely the moment it is attempting to rebuild its organisational strength in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) could find itself increasingly isolated, forcing a reassessment of both alliances and political strategy before the next Assembly election. And for the BJP, it would amount to the political neutralisation of perhaps its most accomplished regional rival. Sharad Pawar’s greatest political strength has always been his refusal to close any door before absolutely necessary. Strategic ambiguity has been one of its principal instruments. At 85, he remains among the last practitioners of an older style of coalition politics, where negotiation often counts for more than confrontation, and where tomorrow’s ally may well have been yesterday’s fiercest opponent. (The writer is a political observer. Views personal.

The Fall of Grace: Maharashtra’s Political Culture at a Crossroad

Maharashtra’s hallowed political culture is increasingly buffeted by strife and scandal.

Maharashtra, long considered a beacon of political maturity and reformist governance, is in the throes of moral and administrative decay. Under Devendra Fadnavis, once hailed as one of India’s more competent and courteous political leaders, the state appeared to have charted a policy-driven, principle-based course. But a rash of recent controversies suggests that the rot may be setting in not at the bottom, but at the very top.


Far from embodying discipline and ethics, the ruling coalition now resembles a theatre of impunity. Ministers and MLAs from across the alliance have either courted controversy or invited disgrace, with little censure and even less accountability. The fallout risks damaging not just the credibility of the government but the very architecture of public office in the state.


The July 2025 incident involving Sanjay Gaikwad, an MLA from the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), was particularly egregious. A video showed him violently assaulting a canteen worker at the MLA hostel over allegedly stale food. Rather than express remorse, Gaikwad bragged: “I’m a fighter, and I’ll do it again.” It was not his first public outburst. He has previously issued threats and made derogatory remarks about voters. Despite the severity of the assault, neither his party nor the legislature has acted decisively. While a belated FIR was filed, critics say it is too little, too late.


Another episode unfolded in the state assembly’s lobby, where BJP MLA Gopichand Padalkar clashed with NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) supporters in what resembled a schoolyard brawl. Padalkar apologised, but Deputy Council Chair Neelam Gorhe called it a “breach of all legislative protocol.”


Then came a viral video featuring Social Justice Minister Sanjay Shirsat with a large bag stuffed with bundles of cash. No formal complaint has been filed, and no charges proved, but the optics were damaging. The silence from the top brass including Fadnavis and Deputy CM Eknath Shinde has been conspicuous. In politics, what is not denied is often taken as tacitly condoned.


Compounding the turmoil is a murky ‘honey-trap’ scandal. Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut claimed at least four ministers were being blackmailed through a coordinated operation that began during the state’s power struggle. Fadnavis acknowledged a complaint from Nashik but denied any orchestrated conspiracy. Still, speculation runs rife. Are these allegations merely a smokescreen? Or do they hint at deeper intrigue?


Agriculture Minister Manikrao Kokate, of the NCP–Ajit Pawar faction, has his own share of trouble. He was caught on camera apparently playing rummy on his phone during a legislative session, later attributing it to a YouTube ad. His explanation convinced few. Worse, Kokate has been convicted in a decades-old document forgery case involving EWS flat allocation. Though the court has stayed his sentence, the conviction alone raises questions about his fitness for public office. His outburst calling the government a “beggar” over crop insurance enraged Fadnavis, but concrete action remains pending.


Even more damaging are revelations about Yogesh Kadam, a junior minister from the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), who holds the Home and Revenue portfolios. A dance bar in Mumbai allegedly operated under a licence in his mother’s name, apparently a conflict of interest. A police raid in May revealed over 40 violations of licensing norms. Kadam also stands accused of diverting desilted sand, meant for farmers, to his family-run dental college in a misuse of public resources, claim activists like Anjali Damania.


Yet again, neither Fadnavis nor Shinde has said much. Kadam’s continued presence in government reflects a larger malaise of the erosion of accountability.


These incidents raise a sobering question: is Devendra Fadnavis losing his grip on the administration or is he hemmed in by a coalition where power is too widely diffused to allow discipline?


Fadnavis retains charge of the Home Ministry, theoretically giving him the authority to act. But many of the errant ministers (Gaikwad and Kadam included) belong to the Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Taking firm action risks upsetting a delicate power balance and potentially unravelling the alliance. Similarly, Ajit Pawar’s faction may resist BJP attempts at enforcement.


This fragmented authority makes it difficult for Fadnavis to project the firm leadership that once defined him. The result is a growing public perception of a government that tolerates misbehaviour, if not rewards it.


Some suggest that the scandals engulfing Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) ministers may serve a strategic purpose. By allowing media and public anger to fester, Fadnavis may be quietly weakening Shinde’s hold, paving the way for a recalibration of power within the coalition. If true, it is a dangerous game wherein institutional credibility is the collateral damage. If, on the other hand, Fadnavis is simply paralysed by political arithmetic, the consequences may be no less grave. Maharashtra’s reputation for sober, sensible politics is already fraying. The rot is not just individual but systemic.


This is a moment of reckoning. For Fadnavis, the choice is stark: enforce ethical governance at the risk of rupture, or prioritise coalition comfort over public trust. For Shinde, the question is whether he will clean house or allow the culture of impunity to deepen. And for Maharashtra’s citizens, tired of drama and sleaze, the hope is simple: less spectacle, more statecraft.


(The Writer is a communication professional. Views Personal.)

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