The lessons driving Pakistan’s new Naval Doctrine

Once a coast guard-like force, Pakistan’s Navy and Air Force now plan to challenge India’s dominance to prevent any repeat of 1971.

The brutal massacre of more than 25 persons, mostly tourists, at Pahalgam has once again raised the spectre of conflict between India and Pakistan. In this tense scenario, it bears remembering that Pakistan’s military machine, especially its Navy and Air Force, has been undergoing a quiet but determined modernisation. Islamabad is building capabilities that could matter greatly should war clouds thicken over South Asia.

When the Indian Navy choked the ports of East and West Pakistan in 1971, the damage was not just military. It was existential. Deprived of its maritime arteries, Pakistan's economy wilted, and the secession of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) swiftly followed. In the aftermath, Islamabad made a solemn vow: never again. Since then, Pakistan has been steadily, if quietly, reshaping its naval and air capabilities to ensure that history does not repeat itself.

The Pakistan Navy, once little more than a coast guard, now presents a far more formidable challenge. With around 100 ships sourced from Turkey, America, China and local shipyards, it has built a diversified fleet, blending imported designs with indigenous innovation. Frigates like the American Oliver Hazard Perry-class, the Turkish-designed Babur class and the Pakistani-built Zulfiquar class (a Chinese-assisted effort) patrol its coasts and beyond. Minehunters based on French designs expand its operational scope, allowing Pakistan to prepare not only for battle at sea but for the protection of its vulnerable harbours from missile attacks and amphibious threats.

Submarines, however, have become the centrepiece of Pakistan’s maritime doctrine. Scarred by the 1971 blockade, naval planners adopted a philosophy of asymmetric undersea warfare. The Submarine Command, established in 1964, is now the Navy’s crown jewel. Pakistan’s Agosta 90B-class submarines, refurbished with Turkish help, lurk unseen in the depths, armed with Exocet missiles and Babur-III nuclear-capable cruise missiles. With eight submarines currently in service and a growing fleet of midget “X-Craft” submarines for stealth operations, Pakistan is investing in depth, literally and figuratively.

The ambitions do not stop there. In a clear signal to New Delhi, Pakistan has partnered with China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy to build Hangor-class submarines based on the Yuan-class model, featuring advanced Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems. A technology transfer agreement signed in 2015 ensures that much of the building will happen at home, strengthening Pakistan’s own shipbuilding industry. More ominously, Islamabad has greenlit the development of its first nuclear-powered submarine as its answer to India’s INS Arihant, which is scheduled for delivery by 2028. Should this project succeed, it will mark Pakistan’s entry into the elite club of nations capable of second-strike nuclear deterrence from the sea.

Yet Pakistan’s efforts to achieve strategic parity with India are not confined to the oceans. In the skies, too, Islamabad has been working methodically. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF), boasting over 70,000 personnel and the largest fleet among Muslim-majority countries, has grown from a modest auxiliary force into a battle-hardened arm. It carries lessons from repeated conflicts with India, as well as experiences from counterinsurgency operations in the tribal areas and beyond.

The PAF’s fleet is a patchwork quilt, stitched from American, Chinese and indigenous fabrics. Its F-16 Fighting Falcons, around 75 strong, remain its most prized assets, offering air superiority and ground-attack capability. The Chinese-made JF-17 Thunder, jointly developed with Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, has proven a cost-effective multirole fighter, now numbering nearly 150. Older platforms like the Mirage III and Mirage V, well past their prime, continue to soldier on, albeit modernised to remain operationally relevant.

Notably, the PAF has heavily invested in aerial surveillance and electronic warfare. Its fleet of Saab 2000 aircraft, fitted with Erieye radar, provides early-warning and control capability vital in a high-threat environment. A brutal Taliban attack in 2012 on PAF Base Minhas damaged some of these assets, but they were quickly repaired and supplemented by new purchases. Additionally, China’s Shaanxi Y-8-based ZDK-03 AEW&C aircraft and a clutch of Dassault Falcon 20 jets modified for electronic warfare allow the PAF to monitor, disrupt, and strike with greater precision.

Even special forces have not been neglected. The PAF’s Special Forces Wing, relatively unknown outside Pakistan, adds another layer of operational depth and are trained to conduct rescue missions, sabotage and reconnaissance deep behind enemy lines.

Pakistan’s military evolution, however, should not be overstated. Despite the modernisation drive, it still faces serious challenges. Maintaining an ageing and varied fleet strains budgets and supply chains. Indigenous manufacturing, while improving, lags behind India’s growing domestic defence industry. And China’s patronage, while generous, comes with dependencies that may limit Pakistan’s strategic autonomy.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s transformation from a reactive force to a proactive deterrent power is unmistakable. No longer content to play second fiddle in the Indian Ocean or cede dominance of South Asian skies, Islamabad is betting on stealth, speed, and strategy to level the playing field. Whether this gamble pays off will depend not just on technology, but also on deft statecraft in an increasingly unstable region.

The ghost of 1971 haunts Pakistan still. But if its generals have their way, the next time maritime and aerial battles are fought, they intend to write a very different ending.

(The author is a former naval aviation officer and geopolitical analyst. Views personal)