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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

The Myth of the Job-Ready Graduate

India’s education reforms will succeed not by producing trained hands, but by cultivating adaptable minds.

One phrase dominates discussions on higher education today: the ‘job-ready graduate.’ It sounds practical, reassuring, and even urgent. Yet it hides a deeper question that is rarely asked. What does ‘job-ready’ really mean at a time when jobs themselves are changing faster than ever?


In most professional settings, there are no fixed manuals. Engineers, scientists, and technologists routinely work with incomplete information, evolving technologies, tight budgets, and unexpected failures. In such environments, the difficulty faced by many fresh graduates is rarely a lack of intelligence or motivation. More often, it is a lack of exposure to how real work unfolds. This is where the idea of a research apprenticeship becomes important.


Research apprenticeship is not about training students for a specific job role. It is about placing them, early and meaningfully, inside real research or problem-solving environments. In these spaces, students do not merely follow instructions. They watch problems being framed and reframed. They see experiments fail, designs change, and assumptions break down. They learn how decisions are taken under uncertainty, and how results are interpreted rather than memorised.


In simple terms, a research apprentice learns how work actually happens, not just how it is described in textbooks.


This kind of exposure is very different from routine laboratory classes or short internships. Teaching labs are designed to demonstrate known outcomes. Internships often involve limited tasks with little responsibility. Research apprenticeship, by contrast, is defined by uncertainty. Problems may not have clear answers. Data may be messy. Resources may be limited. These are not exceptions. They are the normal conditions of professional life.


Viewed this way, the link to employability becomes clearer. Employers rarely expect fresh graduates to know everything. What they look for is the ability to learn quickly, ask sensible questions, work with others, and remain effective in unfamiliar situations. Research apprenticeship develops these qualities naturally, without packaging them as formal “skills.”


There is another benefit that often goes unnoticed. Research apprenticeship also introduces students to professional culture. They learn how teams function, how responsibility is shared, how ethical boundaries are respected, and how communication shapes outcomes. These aspects are seldom taught explicitly, yet they strongly influence how well a graduate adjusts to the workplace.


Experiential Learning

India’s New Education Policy reflects this broader understanding. It emphasises experiential learning, early research exposure, flexible curricula, and closer engagement between universities and society. The intention is not to turn universities into training centres. It is to ensure that students encounter real problems during their education, rather than for the first time after graduation.


In practice, however, implementation varies widely. Well-endowed institutions may offer advanced laboratories, funded projects, and strong industry partnerships. Many public and regional universities operate under constraints of funding, infrastructure, and faculty workload. From a research perspective, these constraints are not always disadvantages.


Scarcity often mirrors professional reality more closely than abundance. Engineers and scientists rarely work with unlimited resources. They work with trade-offs. When students learn in environments where equipment is shared, budgets are tight, and solutions must be practical, they develop judgment and prioritisation. These qualities are central to employability, though they rarely appear in syllabi.


This is particularly relevant for traditional branches of engineering and science. Civil, mechanical, and electrical engineering, along with physics, chemistry, and core life sciences, remain foundational to infrastructure, manufacturing, energy, water, materials, and healthcare. Their challenge is not relevance, but exposure to real practice.


A civil engineering student who has worked on a live water or transport project understands constraints that no classroom problem can convey. A mechanical engineering student who has seen machines fail develops a different relationship with design. A physics or chemistry student involved in field measurements or instrumentation learns how theory behaves outside controlled conditions. These experiences quietly build professional confidence.


Importantly, research apprenticeship does not require expensive facilities. It requires access to real problems and thoughtful mentorship. Field projects, collaborations with local industry, municipalities, hospitals, utilities, or small enterprises often offer deeper learning than sophisticated but isolated laboratories. Many heritage institutions already possess strong regional and alumni networks that remain underused as learning resources.


Research Apprenticeship

Another limitation of the job-ready narrative lies in how students are assessed. Academic systems reward correctness, speed, and individual performance. Professional environments reward reasoning, collaboration, and persistence in the face of uncertainty. Research apprenticeship exposes students to this mismatch early, helping them adjust expectations about performance, responsibility, and success.


Globally, this approach is well established. Several European systems embed apprenticeship and project-based learning even in core engineering disciplines. In the United States, cooperative education and undergraduate research allow students to spend extended periods inside working environments. These systems do not promise instant productivity. They produce graduates who grow into roles.


The rapid rise of artificial intelligence strengthens this argument further. Many routine tasks are now assisted or automated. Tool-specific skills change quickly. What remains valuable are human abilities: framing problems, interpreting results, exercising judgment, and working with others. These are not acquired through lectures alone. They are learned through participation.


From a research perspective, the discussion on employability therefore benefits from a shift in emphasis. Instead of asking whether graduates are job-ready, a more useful question may be whether they are learning-ready. Research apprenticeship builds this readiness by exposing students to uncertainty, responsibility, and real consequences.


As India implements the New Education Policy across diverse institutional contexts, this distinction becomes increasingly important. Resource constraints, disciplinary traditions, and technological change need not be obstacles. They can become part of the learning process itself.


Graduates shaped by a research apprenticeship may not know all the answers on day one. But they know how to approach problems, ask better questions, and learn continuously. In a world where roles evolve faster than curricula, that may be the most employable capability of all. 


(The writer is the ANRF Prime Minister Professor (designate) at COEP Technological University, Pune, and former Director of the Agharkar Research Institute, Pune. Views personal.)


1 Comment


Vinay Bhandari
Vinay Bhandari
Dec 29, 2025

Agree. Need of the time, create ability to "Envisage problems and challenges, devise multiple solutions for different conditions and perform constrained optimization". The routine problems can be quickly solved using the latest advancements such as AI and such things; however, innovation requires "Fresh", "Out of the box" thinking.

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