Record turnout leads to talks of change

Political circle wonders whether the historic 92.88 per cent turnout reflects anti-incumbency or stronger support for the ruling regime Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves during a roadshow amid the ongoing West Bengal Assembly elections in Dum Dum, North 24 Parganas district. New Delhi: West Bengal's political landscape appears to be scripting a new narrative this time, one written through numbers, but rich in deeper meaning. In the first phase of the assembly elections, 92.88 per cent voting...

min read

Political circle wonders whether the historic 92.88 per cent turnout reflects anti-incumbency or stronger support for the ruling regime Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves during a roadshow amid the ongoing West Bengal Assembly elections in Dum Dum, North 24 Parganas district. New Delhi: West Bengal's political landscape appears to be scripting a new narrative this time, one written through numbers, but rich in deeper meaning. In the first phase of the assembly elections, 92.88 per cent voting across 152 seats is not merely a statistic; it is a dense forest of political signals, where each path leads to a different conclusion. It marks the highest turnout in the state's electoral history, signaling a potentially decisive turning point. In 2011, with a turnout of 84.33 per cent, it led to a regime change, as Mamata Banerjee unseated the Left Front government. This reinforced a conventional belief that high voter turnout often signals a desire for change. However, in 2016 and 2021, turnout hovered around 82 per cent, suggesting a plateau in voter enthusiasm. This time, the nearly 10-percentage-point surge disrupts that pattern. The central question remains exist that does this spike indicate a push for regime change, or a consolidation in favor of the incumbent? The geography of voting in the first phase adds another layer of intrigue. Across 16 districts, Muslim-majority regions such as Murshidabad (66.27 per cent Muslim population, 93.61 per cent turnout), Malda (51.27 per cent, 94.46 per cent), Uttar Dinajpur (49.92 per cent, 94.16 per cent), and Birbhum (37.06 per cent, 94.51 per cent) recorded exceptionally high participation. Yet, this is not a one-sided story. Districts with lower Muslim populations also reported turnout above 90 per cent: Dakshin Dinajpur (24.63 per cent Muslim population, 94.46 per cent turnout), Cooch Behar (25.54 per cent, 96.04 per cent), Jalpaiguri (11.51 per cent, 94.65 per cent), Jhargram (1.66 per cent, 92.26 per cent), and Darjeeling (3.94 per cent, 88.80 per cent). Clear Surge This makes it clear that the surge in turnout is not confined to any single community; it reflects comprehensive civic engagement. Yet, political analysts also interpret this through the lens of polarization, arguing that both major communities have mobilized strongly behind their respective political choices. The fact that Hindu-majority districts like Jalpaiguri and Darjeeling also witnessed high turnout suggests heightened participation across the spectrum, reinforcing the perception of deep political polarisation. There may also be a technical explanation behind the record turnout: the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. Reports indicate that around 5.1 million names were removed, potentially reducing the total voter base and thereby inflating the turnout percentage. In other words, the absolute number of voters may not have risen dramatically, but the percentage appears higher due to a smaller denominator. However, this argument does not fully capture the reality on the ground, where long queues at polling booths pointed to genuine enthusiasm. Women Voters Women voters have emerged as the most compelling story of this election. Female turnout stood at 92.69 per cent, compared to 90.92 per cent for men. Though the gap may seem modest, its political significance is substantial. All major parties have actively courted women voters. The Bharatiya Janata Party has promised a monthly allowance of Rs 3,000 for women and 33 per cent reservation in government jobs, while the All India Trinamool Congress continues to rely on its established welfare schemes targeting women. Interestingly, despite women accounting for the largest share of deletions in the electoral roll, their participation remained higher than that of men. This points to a growing political awareness and assertion among women voters. The failure to pass the Women's Reservation Bill and the delimitation amendment in Parliament, which opposed by parties like Congress and TMC, may also have contributed to this heightened engagement. Textbook Example In Indian politics, a well-established trend suggests that higher voter turnout often correlates with regime change, driven by anti-incumbency sentiment. Dissatisfied voters tend to turn out in larger numbers. There is, however, a counterview-that when voters perceive a threat to their preferred government, they too mobilise in large numbers, though such instances are less common. The 2011 West Bengal election remains a textbook example. High turnout ended 34 years of Left rule. Now, after 15 years in power, Mamata Banerjee faces a similar test. Does this 10 per cent surge signal an anti-incumbency wave? That question lies at the heart of the current political discourse. Security arrangements have also played a crucial role in boosting turnout. The deployment of nearly 250,000 security personnel ensured a largely peaceful election. In contrast to the previous election, which saw around 1,300 violent incidents and 17 deaths, violence this time was significantly curtailed. Reduced fears of booth capturing and bombings enabled voters to step out without hesitation. Such an environment activates the "silent voter." When voting is free from fear and coercion, citizens are more likely to express their true preferences. Often, this reveals underlying anti-incumbency currents. If Bengal's electorate is voting without inhibition, it may well indicate that the state's political trajectory is poised for a shift. Political Rhetoric Political rhetoric has only added to the intrigue. Amit Shah has declared that the "sun has set" on TMC's alleged misrule, while Narendra Modi interprets the high turnout as a sign of BJP's impending victory. In contrast, Mamata Banerjee views it as a mandate in her party's favor, framing the surge as a defense of democratic rights amid concerns over voter list revisions and potential future policies like NRC and delimitation. Attention now turns to April 29, when the remaining 142 seats go to the polls. Will the same pattern persist, or is this surge limited to the first phase? For now, Bengal's politics resembles a bowl of "jhalmuri" - sharp, layered, and unpredictable. Who feels the heat, and who savors victory, will only be clear on counting day. What is certain, however, is that this election is not merely about power, it is a deciding test of public sentiment and political direction. 'Gherao' of judicial officers: SC permits NIA to file chargesheet The Supreme Court on Friday permitted the NIA to file its charge sheet on completion of investigation in the sensational incident of April 1 in West Bengal in which seven judicial officers were illegally confined by a mob in Malda district. As many as 700 judicial officers from West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand are deployed in the ongoing SIR process to deal with over 60 lakh objections of those excluded from the voter list. The top court had taken suo motu cognisance of a letter from the Chief Justice of Calcutta High Court detailing a harrowing incident of April 1 night, where seven judicial officers, including three women, and a five-year-old child were held captive by a mob for over nine hours without food or water. Later, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) took over the probe into the case on a complaint of the Election Commission at the instruction of the top court. On Friday, a bench comprising Chief Justice Surya Kant and justices Joymalya Bagchi and Vipul M Pancholi was informed by Additional Solicitor General S V Raju, appearing for the NIA, that a fresh status report was filed by the probe agency giving details of the investigation carried so far. The bench took note of the submissions of the law officer and said, "The NIA will be at liberty to file chargesheet in a court of competent jurisdiction." “The first phase of voting has shown that the TMC may not even be able to open its account in several districts. Now you must ensure a decisive defeat for TMC and a clear victory for the BJP. You are enduring intense heat, but I assure you that your effort will not go in vain. I will repay your dedication with interest by ensuring the development of this region.” Narendra Modi, Prime Minister “Those sitting in Delhi, plotting to snatch Bengal's rights and impose their agenda, should understand it clearly that the people of Bengal are watching, and they will respond through their vote. This election is about resisting a systematic attempt to weaken Bengal and control it. Those who believe they can run Bengal from Delhi, dictate its politics, divide its people, and distort its culture are deeply mistaken. This land has a long memory and a stronger spine.” Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister

The ‘Nabin’ Turn in BJP Politics

Kiran D. Tare
Dec 16, 2025
3 min read

By elevating Bihar Minister Nitin Nabin as Working President of the BJP, the party signals a generational shift with some canny decision-making

New Delhi: Nitin Nabin, 50, was not the only choice of the top BJP leadership for the post of national executive president. He was among the 10 other names shortlisted by the BJP for the coveted post. Nabin’s caste, Kayastha as well as the Assembly elections scheduled in West Bengal in next year made him the final selection, according to a source in the BJP.

The BJP and its parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) were keen on roping someone who is below age of 50, experienced in politics with a proven loyalty to the RSS. “The top brass had shortlisted at least 10 such leaders from across the country. Nitin Nabin emerged as the final selection because of the prevailing political situation,” the source told ‘The Perfect Voice.’

Nabin’s appointment also points towards a paradigm shift in the party’s policy pertaining to future leadership. “Nitin Nabin is not an isolated case,” the source said. “You may witness many young leaders taking centre stage in the party’s decision making in near future.”

By appointing Nitin Nabin at the number two position, the BJP has made it clear that its focus is firmly on building future leadership. In the party’s history, he is the youngest leader to assume such responsibility.

Bengal Files

The Kayastha community plays a decisive role in at least 15 Assembly constituencies in West Bengal. These are the constituencies adjacent to Bihar. Nitin Nabin could galvanise the community, which is otherwise a staunch BJP supporter, in its favour.

The Kayastha are in large numbers in Uttar Pradesh too which will go for the Assembly polls in 2027. The BJP has tried to pacify the Kurmi community by appointing Pankaj Choudhary, a Kurmi, as state president. The disappointment in the Kurmi community was one of the reasons behind the party’s suffering a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in UP. Upset with less number of Kurmi candidates the community had put its weight behind Samajwadi Party, which had fielded sizeable Kurmi candidates.

Nabin’s appointment also serves as a message that the BJP has emphasised that politics requires dignity, humility, and decorum, and that sensationalism through provocative statements is not its political approach. A clean image and disciplined conduct continue to be core values of the party.

Nitin’s father Navin Kishore Sinha was associated with the party since the Jan Sangh era and served as a seven-time MLA from Patna. After his demise, Nitin carried forward the legacy without allowing the label of dynastic politics to be attached to him. He began his political journey with the ABVP and later joined the BJP Yuva Morcha. Though he comes from a political family he does not carry the label of dynast politician.

Gujarat Connection

A set of Gujarat politicians were grooming Nabin unbeknownst to him. The BJP’s Bihar general secretary (organisation) Bhikubhai Dalsania, the in-charge of Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, Virendra Desai, and the state co-in-charge C.R. Paatil kept a close watch on Nabin. They all are from Gujarat and considered to be very close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The BJP assigned Nabin a crucial responsibility by appointing him as in-charge of Chhattisgarh. There, he focused on booth-level management, organisational expansion, and electoral coordination, leading to a decisive victory for the party. This success established that his leadership capabilities extend beyond Bihar to the national level.

Appointing an MLA of a state as a state in-charge is a rare thing in the BJP. Since the in-charge has to deal with the state’s top leadership there is a convention that a senior leader is appointed as an in-charge of the state. Nabin was an exception because he was under watch from Modi himself for the possible big role in the party.

Chhattisgarh Model

During his tenure in Chhattisgarh, Nabin toured remote regions with youth general secretaries, interacted with party workers, and aligned them with state-level priorities. He effectively advanced promises related to the election manifesto and ensured strong, targeted communication against the well-organized political machinery led by Bhupesh Baghel.

Following the BJP’s defeat in 2018, workers were demoralised due to prolonged grassroots inactivity. He initiated the ‘Mor Awas Mor Adhikar’ campaign in coordination with the state leadership, reaching nearly 18 lakh families deprived of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship housing scheme under the Congress government.

Along with Mansukh Mandaviya, he conceptualised the ‘Mahtari Vandan’ scheme as a response to Bhupesh Baghel’s loan waiver promise. This women-centric campaign became a decisive factor in the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections. Even after other leaders moved on to new roles, he continued extensive tours to strengthen the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, leading to an impressive 10 out of 10 result in the State.

2 Comments

srjoshi31.sj

Dec 18, 2025

This will meet the strategic requirements of coming Electoral results and is also for guidance and benchmarking to the future upcoming eligible candidates for the post. However, this strategy will not work for the One Nation One Election with single Working President. Many such appointments will be necessary.

srjoshi31.sj

Dec 18, 2025