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By:

Dr. V.L. Dharurkar

12 February 2025 at 2:53:17 pm

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints...

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints at a cautious but deliberate reset. Both sides have shown a keenness to replace acrimony with pragmatism. The chill began during the tenure of Justin Trudeau, whose government publicly alleged that Indian agents may have been involved in violent activities on Canadian soil. India rejected the accusations as unfounded and politically motivated. The dispute triggered tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, the freezing of high-level dialogue and an atmosphere of mutual suspicion. For two countries that had long prided themselves on democratic affinity, shared Commonwealth ties and large diaspora links, the rapid deterioration was remarkable. Canada is home to one of the world’s largest Indian diasporas, numbering well over a million people. Trade and educational links have grown steadily since the late twentieth century. Canadian universities attract tens of thousands of Indian students each year, while Indian professionals and entrepreneurs have contributed significantly to Canada’s economic life. These human connections had long acted as ballast in the relationship. But politics, as ever, can overwhelm social ties. Symbolic Weight Carney’s New Delhi visit therefore carries symbolic weight. A former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he has entered politics with a reputation for technocratic competence rather than ideological theatrics. His five-day visit to India, from late February to early March, was carefully choreographed to signal renewal. Beginning in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, he met industrialists, bankers and policymakers, emphasising economic cooperation as the cornerstone of the revived relationship. India today is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with ambitions to expand its industrial base, modernise infrastructure and transition towards cleaner sources of energy. Canada, meanwhile, possesses abundant natural resources, technological expertise and capital. The two economies are complementary in ways that diplomacy had recently obscured. One of the most notable outcomes of the visit was a long-term agreement on uranium supply. Canada’s mining giant Cameco and India’s Department of Atomic Energy concluded a ten-year deal worth roughly $2.6bn to supply more than 20m pounds of uranium. For India, which is expanding its civil nuclear programme to meet rising energy demand while limiting carbon emissions, reliable access to uranium is strategically important. The agreement will help fuel a new generation of small and medium reactors, which India sees as crucial to its energy transition. Canada, for its part, is among the world’s leading producers of uranium. Renewed nuclear cooperation therefore reflects not only diplomatic reconciliation but also the convergence of economic interests. Previous agreements between the two countries had faltered amid political tensions. This time both governments have emphasised implementation and timely delivery. Trade Boost Trade, too, looms large in the reset. Bilateral commerce between India and Canada currently hovers around $10bn to $12bn annually, a modest figure for economies of their scale. Both governments have spoken of raising that number dramatically, potentially to $50bn by the end of the decade. Negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), long stalled, have been revived with renewed urgency. Here global geopolitics provides an additional incentive. The increasingly protectionist trade policies of the United States under Donald Trump have unsettled many of Washington’s traditional partners. Tariff threats and economic nationalism have encouraged countries to diversify their commercial relationships. India and Canada, both heavily exposed to the American market, now see advantage in strengthening bilateral trade and investment as a hedge against volatility emanating from Washington. Education and innovation are another pillar of the renewed engagement. Canadian universities are exploring the possibility of establishing campuses in India, enabling Indian students to access Canadian education without leaving the country. Joint research programmes and technological collaboration are expected to deepen intellectual ties that already run deep. Beyond economics lies a broader strategic calculation. The Indo-Pacific has become the central theatre of twenty-first-century geopolitics. As China’s influence expands across Asia, many countries are seeking new partnerships to preserve a balance of power and maintain open sea lanes. India has positioned itself as a leading voice in this effort, promoting a vision of a free, stable and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Strategic Dynamics Canada, though geographically distant, has begun to pay greater attention to the region’s strategic dynamics. Collaboration with India could therefore form part of a wider network involving countries such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand. For Ottawa, engagement with New Delhi offers a way to remain relevant in Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape. For India, Canadian support adds another partner to its growing Indo-Pacific coalition. Yet enthusiasm should be tempered with realism. Diplomatic resets are easier to announce than to sustain. The political sensitivities that strained relations in the past have not vanished entirely. Canada’s domestic politics, particularly debates surrounding diaspora activism, remain complex. India, meanwhile, is unlikely to tolerate external criticism on matters it considers internal. Managing these differences will require careful diplomacy and mutual restraint. Nevertheless, the symbolism of the present moment matters. The revival of high-level dialogue, the signing of concrete economic agreements and the visible warmth between leaders all suggest a shared desire to turn the page. In the grand sweep of history, relations between India and Canada have always rested on deeper foundations than temporary political quarrels. If the current reset succeeds, it could transform a once-strained partnership into one of the more promising relationships in the Indo-Pacific era. (The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

The Saffron Truce

Ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls, a bruised BJP mends fences with the AIADMK.

Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu

Few states have proved as electorally impenetrable to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as Tamil Nadu. With its fiercely proud Dravidian identity and a political culture suspicious of northern impositions, the BJP has long been a fringe player in a state dominated by the Dravidian duopoly of the DMK and the AIADMK. Now, ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, the BJP has pragmatically revived its alliance with the AIADMK while engineering a leadership reshuffle to soothe bruised egos on both sides.


The changes were the handiwork of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who in his recent visit to the southern state, declared that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would contest the 2026 elections under the leadership of AIADMK chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) and that the two parties would form a coalition government if victorious.


This was a signal of détente after months of visible strain. Central to this détente was the fate of K. Annamalai, the firebrand former IPS officer who, as BJP’s Tamil Nadu president since 2021, had become both a symbol of the party’s grassroots energy and a source of friction with its ally. Annamalai’s combative style, unafraid to criticise AIADMK icons (including a controversial remark about the late J. Jayalalithaa) had alienated senior AIADMK leaders. Matters came to a head in 2023 when the AIADMK quit the NDA, accusing the BJP’s state leadership of disrespect.


Though Amit Shah publicly maintained that Annamalai remained president at the time of the press conference, his symbolic sidelining was hard to miss. Within hours, the BJP announced Nainar Nagendran, the party’s Tirunelveli MLA and current vice-president, as state president of the BJP’s Tamil Nadu unit.


Nagendran’s elevation is not accidental. A former AIADMK minister who crossed over to the BJP in 2017, he is seen as a more conciliatory figure, someone with the credibility to mend bridges. His links to EPS and his measured tone have already reassured allies. Earlier this year, when he declared that there was no need to ‘intimidate’ the AIADMK into an alliance, it was viewed as a coded message to both sides that diplomacy was back in vogue.


This leadership recalibration is also an admission by the BJP high command that its solo strategy in Tamil Nadu has reached its limits. Despite Annamalai’s high-decibel campaigns and impressive visibility, the BJP failed to make significant electoral gains. In the 2021 Assembly elections, it won only four seats in alliance with the AIADMK. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the parties went separate ways and the DMK-led alliance swept the state.


Shah’s remarks made it clear that the BJP would fight the upcoming elections under Narendra Modi’s leadership at the Centre and EPS’s at the state level. This dual-leadership model offers the AIADMK the primacy it desires in Tamil Nadu, while preserving the BJP’s role as a national umbrella. The two parties, Shah said, would craft a common minimum programme and go village-to-village highlighting the corruption of the DMK government, which he alleged was mired in scams.


Notably, Shah insisted that the AIADMK had placed “no conditions” on the alliance. But party insiders acknowledge that EPS made Annamalai’s removal a tacit prerequisite for rapprochement. By crafting Annamalai’s exit as an elevation to the party’s “national framework,” the BJP preserved his dignity while mollifying its ally. Shah’s diplomacy was equally deft in refusing to be drawn into discussions about expelled AIADMK leaders like O. Panneerselvam or T.T.V. Dhinakaran, saying such matters were internal to the party.


Still, the alliance is not without its risks. Nagendran’s ability to balance the BJP’s ambitions with the AIADMK’s sensitivities will be tested in the months to come. Meanwhile, EPS, now firmly back in the driver’s seat, must convince voters that his alliance with the BJP is a principled stand against DMK corruption, not an opportunistic recalibration.


The road to Fort St. George is long and fraught. But for now, Tamil Nadu’s saffron alliance is back on the rails.

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