The War Pakistan Cannot Win

Calls for Baloch independence grow louder amid Pakistan’s faltering military crackdown and intensifying international scrutiny.

Few conflicts in South Asia have been as protracted and overlooked as the struggle for Balochistan’s independence. The mineral-rich but war-ravaged province has been embroiled in an insurgency against Pakistani rule for over seven decades. Now, the latest remarks by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), have delivered a stinging blow to Islamabad’s long-standing narrative of control. His candid admission that Balochistan is at a tipping point, where a declaration of independence might win immediate international recognition, has injected new urgency into an already volatile situation. Pakistan’s military establishment, long accustomed to crushing dissent in the region, now faces a reality it cannot ignore.

The Baloch insurgency is not merely surviving but gaining legitimacy in global forums. The Free Balochistan Movement (FBM), a prominent voice in the Baloch independence struggle, has seized on this momentum. The group has called for the establishment of a United Nations Mission in Balochistan (UNMIB) to oversee a transition to self-rule, drawing comparisons to past international interventions in East Timor, Kosovo, South Sudan and Eritrea.

If history is any guide, such interventions have typically followed episodes of extreme repression, international condemnation, and the erosion of a state’s credibility. Pakistan’s long record of military operations and indiscriminate bombings in Balochistan fit the profile of a state that has lost moral authority over a rebellious province.

Balochistan’s troubles date back to 1948 when Pakistan annexed the region shortly after gaining independence from Britain. The Baloch, with their distinct ethnic identity, language, and cultural heritage, have never fully accepted this incorporation. The past seven decades have seen waves of armed resistance, each met with brutal military reprisals. Pakistan’s security forces have waged relentless campaigns against Baloch nationalists, forcing tens of thousands to flee their homes. Human rights organizations have documented cases of extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances and torture, yet Islamabad’s tactics have done little to quell the rebellion.

China’s involvement has only exacerbated tensions. Beijing’s grand ambitions for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) rely heavily on Balochistan’s strategic coastal city of Gwadar, which Pakistan has militarized to secure Chinese investments. The Baloch see this as yet another phase of external exploitation. Attacks on Chinese engineers and infrastructure projects have become routine, signaling the insurgents’ determination to resist foreign encroachment.

The military’s heavy-handed approach has also drained Pakistan’s financial resources. Despite its struggling economy, the country continues to allocate billions of rupees to sustain military operations in Balochistan. Yet, the insurgency has not only endured but evolved, shifting from scattered guerrilla attacks to more coordinated urban resistance. If Fazlur Rehman’s remarks are any indication, even the political class in Pakistan is beginning to acknowledge the untenability of perpetual conflict.

The FBM’s calls for UN intervention may not yield immediate results, but they have precedent. In 1999, NATO intervened in Kosovo, leading to Serbia’s retreat and eventual recognition of Kosovo’s independence. East Timor gained statehood after a United Nations Transitional Administration shepherded it to independence in 2002. South Sudan seceded from Sudan in 2011, following years of civil war and international mediation. Eritrea’s break from Ethiopia in 1993 came after UN involvement in the peace process.

Pakistan’s nervousness about Balochistan’s trajectory is evident. The military, long the dominant force in the country’s affairs, continues to justify its repression under the guise of national security. However, if the international community starts to view Balochistan through the same lens as Kosovo, East Timor, or South Sudan, Islamabad’s narrative will crumble. For decades, Pakistan has sought to frame the Baloch insurgency as a fringe terrorist movement, but the growing chorus of voices undermines that claim.

The road to Balochistan’s independence remains fraught with obstacles, but the argument for an independent Balochistan is no longer confined to rebel circles. Unless Islamabad corrects course by addressing Baloch grievances through meaningful political dialogue rather than military crackdowns, it now risks losing the province altogether.