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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Vidarbha’s Endless Harvest of Debt

From debt traps and failed irrigation to climate shocks and political neglect, the agrarian crisis in Vidarbha reveals the deep structural failures haunting India’s farming economy.

Every monsoon, as clouds gather over the dry plains of eastern Maharashtra, famers in the Vidarbha region look up with a mix of hope and despair. They are hopeful, as rain means life for their crops. Fear because, rain or no rain, the debts remain, prices fall, and the future remains uncertain. Vidarbha has long been associated with India’s agriculture disaster. Its cotton and soybean farming population has been caught in a cycle of pain that has taken thousands of lives. Statistics alone cannot explain this crisis. It requires a full look at the landscape, the people, and the systems that have failed them.


People and Land

Vidarbha is the name given to the eleven districts in the eastern part of Maharashtra. The districts are Nagpur, Amravati, Wardha, Yavatmal, Akola, Buldhana, Washim, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Bhandara, and Gondia. It is geographically huge – more than a third of the land of Maharashtra – but it remains one of the least developed parts of the state. The majority of the land is rain-fed, and hence the farmers depend almost entirely on monsoon rains and not on assured irrigation. This structural fragility is at the root of the region’s problems.


Most farmers in Vidarbha are small and marginal landowners cultivating crops on one to five acres. Their main cash crop is cotton (known as “white gold”), then soybeans. Both are extremely sensitive to rainfall patterns, market pricing, and input costs. Any of these variables can turn against you and bring down the whole home economy in a single season.


Cotton has been Vidarbha’s main crop for generations, but the economics of cotton growing have become increasingly difficult. The cost of agriculture—seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and labor—has shot up rapidly over the last two decades, while farmers’ prices have sometimes lagged behind. The government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP) is often below the real cost of production or is not available as local markets are flooded by private traders who offer much cheaper prices.


Bt cotton, introduced early in the 2000s, did raise initial yields but came with its own set of problems. Input prices soared. Seed companies provided costly proprietary seeds that farmers had to buy each year. Bt cotton was resistant to bollworm but still susceptible to other pests, so pesticide use increased. Farmers were caught in a high-cost, high-risk situation with no assurance of matching returns.


Debt Vortex

Many farmers in Vidarbha, unable to get conventional institutional loans due to bureaucratic hurdles or lack of collateral, turn to moneylenders and input dealers who charge high interest rates. One bad harvest and they start borrowing. “We are funding the investment for the next season with debt. When that crop fails, the debt grows. Many farmers have loans for many seasons, generations even. It creates a crushing psychological and financial burden.


Even when nationalized banks and cooperative credit organizations come forward, loan payments are sometimes delayed beyond the sowing season, compelling farmers to seek informal lending.


Vidarbha lies in a semi-arid region with notoriously erratic rainfall. In recent decades, weather patterns have become more irregular as a result of climate change. Drought years are followed by years of excessive rainfall and flooding. Both extremes adversely affect agriculture. A dry spell at a critical point in the flowering cycle of the cotton plant can wipe out an entire crop. The rotting is caused by unseasonal rains during the time of harvest. Farmers have limited capacity to buffer these shocks without adequate irrigation infrastructure.


Less than 10 percent of the cropland in Vidarbha is irrigated as against over 30 percent in western Maharashtra. This imbalance is not a mere accident, but rather an outcome of decades of political neglect and unbalanced public investment that have systematically disadvantaged the region.


The demarcation of water between Vidarbha and other parts of Maharashtra is both a political and a geographic issue. Many irrigation projects in the area have been unfinished for years, their finances often tied up or diverted into corruption. Farmers cannot switch to more stable or profitable crops without assured irrigation. They are still in the rut of rain-fed cotton growing, year after year.


Poor road connectivity, lack of cold storage facilities, and inadequate agricultural extension services add to the problem. Farmers often lack the means to transport their produce to better markets, have no way of storing their crops when prices are low, and do not receive current advice on the management of their crops or on new farming techniques.


Long-term Reform

Debt waivers have been politically attractive band-aid remedies. Maharashtra has witnessed several rounds of debt waivers, but implementation has been hampered by exclusions, delays, and leakages. A better way would be to combine timely partial debt restructuring with crop insurance that pays when needed. The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana has had low claim settlements and major exclusions, and its implementation in Vidarbha has long required comprehensive reform.


Vidarbha’s irrigation project backlog completion and new micro-irrigation infrastructure development must become non-negotiable political commitments. Some parts of the region have had successes with drip irrigation and watershed improvement initiatives, but it needs to be pursued aggressively, and the farmers need to be involved from the word go.


Diversifying away from cotton, commodity diversification can be encouraged through incentives, assured procurement, and market links to reduce farmers’ dependence on one variable commodity. There is potential in many parts of Vidarbha with pulses, vegetables, and horticultural crops, but they need investment in cold chains, local markets, and technical support.


Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) have demonstrated that pooling resources and selling together provides farmers with bargaining power and reduces the exploitation of middlemen. Real government support (not just on paper) for scaling up FPOs in Vidarbha can change the nature of small farmers’ access to the markets.


There is the psychological part of the problem, which must be dealt with immediately. Investment in infrastructure is important, but so too is the training of local health workers, the creation of village-level support networks, and the de-stigmatizing of talking about debt and failure.


The agrarian problem in Vidarbha is not a natural calamity. It is a product of human activities, the consequence of decades of legislative neglect, market failures, environmental pressures, and social apathy. Farmer resiliency has not been lacking here, but farmer support has. For the tide to turn, there needs to be sustained political will, honest implementation, and an understanding that the health of Indian democracy is inextricably linked to the health of its farmers. The crisis and suffering will continue until the fields of Vidarbha grow not just cotton but dignity and security.


(The author is a columnist and climate researcher with experience in political analysis, ESG research, and energy policy. Views personal.)

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