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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

IOD may cushion El Nino’s mega-threat

Mumbai: Amid gloomy forecasts of a below-normal monsoon 2026 in India due to a potentially devastating El Nino, scientists are monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an ocean-atmosphere phenomena that could possibly soften the impact over the sub-continent. As a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatens to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, meteorologists keep their fingers crossed – as Positive...

IOD may cushion El Nino’s mega-threat

Mumbai: Amid gloomy forecasts of a below-normal monsoon 2026 in India due to a potentially devastating El Nino, scientists are monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an ocean-atmosphere phenomena that could possibly soften the impact over the sub-continent. As a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatens to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, meteorologists keep their fingers crossed – as Positive IOD conditions that warm the western Indian Ocean have helped salvage the Indian monsoons in the past. Though current forecasts point to neutral IOD conditions in May-June, with the possibility of turning positive later in the season, experts caution it may not be powerful enough to roll-back the effects of a very strong El Nino this year. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90 pc of the Long Period Average of 870 mm, with an error margin of 4 pc, placing India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category in 2026. The chances of deficient rains could be 60pc and probability of below-normal rains is at 24pc – an alarming picture. Present forecast models point to a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end. In the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’, in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons. Top scientists and meteorologists like Skymet Weather President (Meteorology and Climate Change) retired Air Vice-Marshal G. P. Sharma, University of Maryland Emeritus Professor Raghu Murtugudde, Food policy analyst Devinder Sharma, Centre for Sustainable Agriculture Executive Director Dr G. V. Ramanjaneyulu, FLAME University Public Policy Professor Dr. Anjal Prakash, Climate Trends Founder Aarti Khosla and Associate Director Archana Chaudhary, are a worried lot as the current ocean warming trends are similar to previous ‘Super El Nino’ events. “The numerical models suggest the evolving El Nino (2026) could match the ‘Super El Nino’ seen four decades ago. Ocean temperatures are nearing record highs, and 2027 may surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record as El Nino’s warming impact is usually felt strongly the following year,” Sharma said. Global Warming Sharma added that the phenomenon is unfolding alongside long-term global warming, with oceans already absorbing nearly 90pc of excess heat generated by human activity. The Pacific Ocean rapidly warms toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition, while India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now slated to move into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year. Meteorologists aver that even an ‘evolving El Nino’ can disrupt the Indian monsoon – weakening the ‘Walker Circulation’ which is a massive air circulation system across the Pacific – leading to high-pressure conditions over the Indian subcontinent and suppressing rain-bearing clouds. The concern spans not just lower rainfall totals, but also erratic weather patterns and prolonged dry spells during the core monsoon months. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) latest advisory says that there is an 82pc chance of El Nino emerging in May-July 2026, with a 96pc probability of it continuing through the northern hemisphere winter of 2026-27. Murtugudde said rainfall distribution would matter more than seasonal averages, the monsoon may be patchy, with longer break-monsoon conditions. “Delayed monsoon advance could trigger humid heat-waves across north-west India as hot winds from Pakistan combine with Arabian Sea moisture,” he explained. He cautioned that agriculture planning would have to rely increasingly on short-term forecasts amid climate volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.

When Machines Masquerade as Scientists

Updated: Apr 2

Two recent developments in scientific publishing should worry us. In one case, AI-generated inputs were found in peer review, leading to the rejection of papers. In another, an AI-written paper successfully passed peer review. Together, these highlight a deeper shift in how science is now created and assessed.


For the first time, AI is not just aiding science on the fringes. It is now involved in the entire scientific process, from writing to evaluation.


There is a fundamental question we need to ask now. For decades, we have relied on printed words, especially in scientific journals. That reliance assumes that what appears in print has undergone careful human review. Is that assumption still valid?


System Under Strain


Science has always relied on a human-centered process. A researcher identifies a problem, designs an approach, analyzes results, and presents findings. Peer reviewers assess the work using their knowledge and judgment. The strength of this system comes from human thinking, interpretation, and accountability.


That foundation is now shifting. AI tools can generate structured papers, summarize literature, and build convincing arguments. Meanwhile, reviewers are starting to rely on AI to read and evaluate manuscripts, often due to time and volume pressures. There are even reports of hidden instructions embedded in papers to sway AI-assisted reviews.


Now, both writing and reviewing are influenced by the same tools. Independent judgment, inevitably, diminishes.


The scope of science was already growing. Global publication output has exceeded about 2.5 million papers annually. Peer review is strained, with limited time and increasing expectations. AI shifts this balance significantly. Tasks that once took weeks can now be completed in hours, causing a sharp increase in submissions.


This shift is not only about speed. It is reshaping the system’s behaviour. No reviewer today has the time to read everything, and AI is widening that gap. It is compressing the scientific process itself. Steps that once demanded depth are shortened and sometimes bypassed.


This opens the door to a kind of ‘synthetic science.’ Here, the entire cycle of research, from conceptualisation and experimental design to methodology, results, discussion and conclusions, unfolds entirely within the digital world. Data are simulated, experiments are virtual, and interpretations may never be grounded in direct observation. The concern is not the use of digital tools, but the risk that such fully synthetic outputs begin to resemble validated science and are accepted without rigorous real-world verification.


This leads to what can be called the ‘flooding effect in science.’ where production outpaces the system’s capacity to evaluate carefully.


The most important shift is from truth to plausibility. AI-generated papers are well written, logically structured and technically convincing. They resemble good science. However, evidence shows that such content can include incorrect references, unsupported claims, or shallow reasoning that is not immediately visible.


Peer review was designed to examine reasoning and evidence. It was not designed to detect machine-generated coherence.



At the centre of this issue is a simple constraint. Human attention is finite, while AI can generate knowledge at scale. This creates the ‘attention bottleneck in science’ where the limiting factor is evaluation rather than production.


As this bottleneck tightens, strong work can be missed, while well-presented but weak work gains visibility which can potentially shape research directions in unintended ways.


If this continues, the consequences will extend beyond academia. Science underpins medicine, engineering, policy, and environmental decisions. If trust in scientific literature weakens, decision-making becomes uncertain. Regulators hesitate, industries second-guess evidence, and public confidence erodes. In such a situation, identifying reliable knowledge becomes extremely difficult.


Loss of trust in science is far more than a mere technical issue; it is a societal risk. It is therefore necessary to restate a basic principle. Science is not a text production process. It is a judgment process. If this distinction weakens, output may rise, but understanding will not.


Practical Response

This situation requires a clear and practical response. Journals should mandate explicit disclosure of AI use in writing and review so that readers are aware of what they are evaluating. Submissions should also go through automated citation and data checks to identify fabricated or inconsistent references before peer review.


Peer review needs to be strengthened. Reviewers should confirm that their evaluation reflects independent judgment, not unverified AI output. A simple “human-reviewed and verified” statement can restore accountability.


Academic evaluation systems should shift focus from counting publications to recognizing originality, depth, and reproducibility. Dedicated space for replication and validation studies must be established, as these are crucial for credibility but are currently undervalued.


Researcher training must also evolve. Merely using AI is not enough. Scientists need to learn to question, verify, and challenge AI-generated outputs. The aim should be to use AI to boost thinking, not replace it. Journals might even consider an “AI involvement score” to show how much machine help was used in a paper.


The implications may extend beyond publishing. As AI systems merge with robotics and humanoid platforms, knowledge could increasingly lead to automated actions in healthcare, manufacturing, and environmental systems. If the foundational science is weak, automated decisions might amplify errors on a large scale. The risk is no longer limited to wrong conclusions; it now includes wrong actions.


Science has adapted to change many times. However, this shift is different because it influences how knowledge is judged, not just how it is created. We are entering a phase where knowledge can be produced at unprecedented speed, but understanding may not keep up.


So, we come back to the fundamental question. If printed words can now be created, reviewed, and accepted with minimal human involvement, what exactly are we trusting?


Machines can produce text quickly and accurately. However, meaning, judgment, and responsibility stay firmly with humans. That distinction needs to be maintained.


If we preserve it, AI becomes a powerful ally in advancing science. If we blur it, the consequences will not seem like failure but as a gradual erosion. Everything may still look correct, yet something essential will be missing.


(The writer is an ANRF Prime Minister Professor at COEP Technological University, Pune; former Director of the Agharkar Research Institute, Pune; and former Visiting Professor at IIT Bombay. Views personal).

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