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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Nadda's strategic meet signals urgency for chemical sector

New Delhi: As war simmers across the volatile landscape of West Asia, whether in the form of a direct confrontation between Israel, United States and Iran, or through Iran's hybrid warfare involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, the tremors are no longer confined to the region's borders. They are coursing through the arteries of the global economy. India's chemicals and petrochemicals sector, heavily dependent on this region for critical raw materials, finds itself among the earliest...

Nadda's strategic meet signals urgency for chemical sector

New Delhi: As war simmers across the volatile landscape of West Asia, whether in the form of a direct confrontation between Israel, United States and Iran, or through Iran's hybrid warfare involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, the tremors are no longer confined to the region's borders. They are coursing through the arteries of the global economy. India's chemicals and petrochemicals sector, heavily dependent on this region for critical raw materials, finds itself among the earliest and hardest hit by this geopolitical turbulence. It is in this backdrop that the recent meeting convened by Union Minister for Chemicals and Fertilisers J. P. Nadda at Kartavya Bhavan must be seen not as a routine consultation, but as a signal of strategic urgency. India's ambition to scale this sector from its current valuation of $220 billion to $1 trillion by 2040, and further to $1.5 trillion by 2047, will remain aspirational unless the country confronts its structural vulnerabilities with clarity and resolve. India today ranks as the world's sixth-largest producer of chemicals and the third-largest in Asia. The sector contributes 6-7 percent to GDP and underpins a wide spectrum of industries, from agriculture and pharmaceuticals to automobiles, construction, and electronics. It would be no exaggeration to call it the backbone of modern industrial India. Yet, embedded within this strength is a paradox. India's share in the global chemical value chain (GVC) stands at a modest 3.5 percent. A trade deficit of $31 billion in 2023 underscores a deeper issue: while India produces at scale, it remains marginal in high-value segments. This imbalance becomes starkly visible when disruptions in West Asia choke the supply of key feedstocks, shaking the very foundations of domestic industry. Supply Disruption The current crisis has laid this fragility bare. Disruptions in the supply of LNG, LPG, and sulfur have led to production cuts of 30-50 percent in several segments. With nearly 65 percent of sulfur imports sourced from the Middle East, the ripple effects have extended beyond chemicals to fertilisers, plastics, textiles, and other downstream industries. Strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz have witnessed disruptions, pushing shipping costs up by 20-30 percent and adding further strain to cost structures. This is precisely where Nadda's emphasis on supply chain diversification and resilience appears prescient. In today's world, self-reliance cannot mean isolation; it must translate into strategic flexibility. While India imports crude oil from as many as 41 countries, several critical inputs for the chemical industry remain concentrated in a handful of sources, arguably the sector's most significant vulnerability. Opportunity Ahead A recent report by NITI Aayog outlines a pathway to convert this vulnerability into opportunity. It envisions raising India's GVC share to 5-6 percent by 2030 and to 12 percent by 2040. If achieved, the sector could not only reach the $1 trillion mark but also generate over 700,000 jobs. However, this transformation will demand more than policy intent, it will require sustained investment and disciplined execution. The most pressing challenge lies in research and innovation. India currently spends just 0.7 percent of industry revenue on R&D, compared to a global average of 2.3 percent. This gap explains why the country remains largely confined to basic chemicals, even as the world moves toward specialty and high-value products. Bridging this divide is essential if India is to climb the value chain. Equally constraining is the fragmented nature of the industry. Dominated by MSMEs with limited access to capital and technology, the sector struggles to compete globally. Cluster-based development models offer a pragmatic way forward, such as PCPIRs and the proposed chemical parks.

Whirring Blades, Warring Neighbours

India’s Apaches and Pakistan’s Z-10MEs are signposts in an accelerating South Asian arms race.

In South Asia, where the map is still defined by old wars and the memories of near ones, the induction of attack helicopters is a declaration of intent that is impossible to ignore.

 

Purpose-built to destroy tanks, smash fortifications and shield advancing troops, these machines are the shock cavalry of the modern age. They are like predators from the drawing board onwards: gunships with teeth in the form of machine guns, autocannons, rockets and guided missiles. And in the last decade, they have become a centrepiece of the India–Pakistan military equation.

 

India’s choice is the AH-64E Apache Guardian, the latest and most advanced variant of America’s most battle-tested attack helicopter. The Apache’s combat record stretches from Iraq to Afghanistan, and its very silhouette signals lethality. It carries a 30mm chain gun capable of tearing through infantry and light armour, Hellfire missiles for dispatching tanks at a distance and Hydra rockets for suppressing wide areas. For self-defence, it can be armed with air-to-air missiles, because in a contested battlespace, even the hunter can become prey.

 

What makes the Apache truly dangerous, however, is its brain. The Longbow radar can detect, classify, and prioritise targets while the helicopter hides behind terrain. Modern infrared and night-vision systems allow it to fight in darkness and foul weather. Its data links enable it to pass target information to tanks, infantry or drones in real time and uniquely take control of UAVs directly, extending its reach and awareness far beyond its own line of sight.

 

Pakistan’s choice is the Chinese-built Z-10ME, a machine once dismissed as underpowered but now heavily upgraded. With new engines delivering 30 percent more output, it can operate in the thin air of the Hindu Kush and Siachen - terrains that were once its Achilles heel. It carries an arsenal designed to match or at least threaten the Apache: AKD-10 anti-tank missiles, CM-502AG air-to-ground missiles, TY-90 air-to-air missiles, and a 23mm autocannon. It is compatible with loitering munitions and UAVs, signalling China’s own move toward integrated battlefield systems. Ceramic composite armour, electronic warfare suites, and infrared suppressors give it a fighting chance in the same hostile environments where the Apache thrives.

 

That Pakistan now flies the Z-10ME is a story in itself. This is a country that once fielded American Cobras, machines that served for decades but are now hopelessly outdated. Islamabad had previously turned down Chinese offers of the Z-10, citing performance concerns. The decision to induct the upgraded ME variant shows both how far the design has come and how far Pakistan has moved into China’s military orbit. It is also an admission that access to American platforms is, for now, politically impossible.

 

The two machines are not equal. The Apache’s systems, survivability, and combat record give it the edge. But war is rarely a technical spreadsheet exercise. The Z-10ME’s induction is enough to complicate India’s planning, just as the Apache’s presence forces Pakistan to adapt its doctrine.

 

This matters because South Asia is not a region where such capabilities gather dust. The 1965 and 1971 wars saw some of the largest tank battles since the Second World War. The Kargil conflict of 1999, though fought largely in the mountains, underscored the need for precision firepower close to the line of control. In such a theatre, the attack helicopter is not a museum piece; it is a plausible first responder in any flare-up.

 

The danger is that their very existence may encourage their use. They are tactical assets, not strategic ones, and therefore fall into the category of ‘use it or lose it’ in a shooting war. If skirmishes escalate, the temptation to deploy them early to break a stalemate or exact retribution will be high. And once in the fight, they are hard to disengage.

 

There is also the matter of signalling. Helicopter deployments can be highly visible, whether in forward bases, at joint exercises, or on patrol near contested borders. In a region where the political temperature can spike overnight, such visibility risks being read as preparation for aggression. That misreading, in turn, can feed the spiral of escalation that South Asia knows too well.

 

India will, for now, retain qualitative superiority, not just in helicopters but across its air and ground forces. Its defence budget is larger, its supplier base more diversified, and its military-industrial ecosystem more developed. But Pakistan’s acquisition of the Z-10ME demonstrates that parity is not the goal; deterrence is. In this sense, every Apache India buys is an argument for Pakistan to seek a counterweight, and every Z-10ME Pakistan inducts is a reason for India to upgrade further.

 

This is the logic of the slow-burn arms race. It does not require either side to believe war is imminent. It requires only the belief that, should war come, the other side must not be allowed to hold a decisive advantage. That belief is alive and well on both sides of the Radcliffe Line.


The Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu cautioned that “there is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” In South Asia’s skies, the corollary holds true: overestimating one’s own invulnerability can be just as fatal. The Apache and the Z-10ME are machines built to fight. Whether they become machines that fight each other depends on the restraint of the people who command them.

 

(The writer is a retired naval aviation officer and defence and geopolitical analyst. Views personal.)

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