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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP apprehensive of Marathi-Muslim vote bloc

Mumbai: The strategic reunion of the Thackeray cousins marks a pivotal shift in Mumbai’s political landscape, forcing the BJP-led Mahayuti to reconsider its path toward controlling the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). At the heart of the BJP’s concern is the emergence of a Marathi-Muslim voting bloc, a demographic alliance that mirrors the potent ‘Muslim-Yadav’ formula famously utilised by Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar. Internal assessments suggest that this cross-community alignment...

BJP apprehensive of Marathi-Muslim vote bloc

Mumbai: The strategic reunion of the Thackeray cousins marks a pivotal shift in Mumbai’s political landscape, forcing the BJP-led Mahayuti to reconsider its path toward controlling the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). At the heart of the BJP’s concern is the emergence of a Marathi-Muslim voting bloc, a demographic alliance that mirrors the potent ‘Muslim-Yadav’ formula famously utilised by Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar. Internal assessments suggest that this cross-community alignment could influence as many as 43 seats in the city. While the BJP traditionally struggles to capture the Muslim vote, the real danger to their campaign lies in the possibility of the Muslim community voting tactically for the Shiv Sena (UBT) to prevent a BJP victory. The formalisation of the alliance between Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray has fundamentally altered the math in 36 core ‘Marathi’ seats. Previously, the BJP had hoped that a split in the Marathi vote between various factions would allow their candidates to sail through. However, the unified ‘Brand Thackeray’ appeal now threatens to consolidate these votes under a single banner. Sigh Of Relief Interestingly, BJP surveys had previously indicated that if Raj Thackeray had joined Eknath Shinde’s faction, the impact would have been even more severe, potentially affecting 45 seats. While the current UBT-MNS pairing offers a slight ‘sigh of relief’ in that regard, it remains a formidable obstacle to the Mahayuti’s target of 178 seats. Further complicating the situation is the stance of the City Congress unit, which recently severed ties with the Shiv Sena (UBT). This move was largely driven by the fear that their core Muslim support base would be alienated by an association with the MNS. The BJP’s strategy has involved highlighting this tension. City BJP Chief Ameet Satam famously warned that a UBT victory would result in the city having a ‘Khan’ as its Mayor. This was a clear attempt to polarize the electorate and pull Marathi voters away from the Thackeray camp. Marathi Mayor However, Raj Thackeray’s assurance at today’s press conference that the city will have a ‘Marathi Mayor’ from the UBT-MNS alliance has provided a counter-narrative. This statement serves two purposes. Firstly, it reassures the Marathi heartland of the alliance’s priorities, and secondly it gives the BJP a new rhetorical tool. The BJP now intends to use Raj Thackeray’s ‘Marathi-first’ rhetoric to suggest to Muslim voters that the alliance does not truly represent their interests, hoping this will cause them to reconsider their tactical support for the Shiv Sena (UBT). As the January 15 elections approach, the success of the Mahayuti depends on whether they can break this budding Marathi-Muslim coalition or if the “Thackeray Factor” will successfully bridge the gap between these historically disparate voting blocs. Seat Sharing A senior BJP leader, while commenting on the UBT-MNS alliance asked as to why the seat-sharing formula was not declared by the two leaders, and went on to reveal the answer. According to him, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is worried as to how many seats the Shiv Sena under Eknath Shinde gets to contest and knows well that Shinde won’t settle for anything less than what the MNS gets. The BJP leader said that the MNS is asking for 80 seats and if that number is revealed, the BJP will have to leave as many seats to Shiv Sena. It’ll be better for the BJP. Their track record is of corruption and self-interest. Their alliance is for their own political survival and it will not make any significant political difference. It is childish if anyone thinks otherwise. People will not get swayed. The television news channels were reporting as if it was the Russia-Ukaine alliance. Thackerays are not the lone representatives of Marathi people and Mumbai. Devendra Fadnavis, Chief Minister

Why a Caste Census Is Crucial for Maratha Reservation?

Caste-based Maratha reservation exposes Maharashtra’s evolving political dynamics, resurfacing as both a legal and an electoral strategy.

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Ideally, elections in a democracy should focus on development, education, agriculture, and good governance. However, in Maharashtra—especially in rural areas—local polls are often driven by caste politics rather than real developmental issues. This undermines democratic progress, social harmony, and merit-based leadership.


The leap year of 2024 was marked by major elections in Maharashtra, with both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls dominated by the volatile demand for Maratha reservations. With local body elections ahead, caste-based reservation demands are expected to intensify further.


Reservation politics have major social implications, and the Maratha quota demand is no exception in Maharashtra. For decades, it has fuelled political debates and mass movements. In 2024, ahead of elections, the State Government granted Marathas—around a third of them—a 10 per cent reservation in education and jobs. The law is now under Constitutional Court review.


Despite these efforts, Maratha leader Manoj Jarange has given the government a deadline of 6 June 2025 to fulfil key demands—chiefly, the blanket issuance of Kunbi certificates to Marathas for inclusion in the OBC category. Failing this, he has threatened an indefinite hunger strike in Mumbai starting August 2025. This development, along with potential counter-demands from OBC groups, could significantly impact the state’s political climate ahead of the upcoming local body elections.


The legal position

The legal battle over the Maratha reservation has been a rollercoaster with several twists. In 2019, the Bombay High Court upheld the SEBC Act, 2018, granting Maratha reservation. However, in 2021, the Supreme Court struck it down, ruling that it breached the 50% cap on reservations. In 2024, the Shinde-led government passed a new SEBC law granting a 10% quota to Marathas, but this too is currently under High Court scrutiny.


With local body elections approaching, the issue is expected to resurface. Notably, many Marathas still lack access to education and employment. It is therefore essential for the state government to gather the necessary data to establish the community’s social and economic backwardness, enabling reservation within the constitutional framework.


The Kunbi tag?

Kunbis, an agricultural community mainly in Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, and parts of Gujarat, are concentrated in Marathwada and Vidarbha. Though distinct, they are often seen as a subgroup of Marathas—while all Kunbis may be Marathas, not all Marathas are Kunbis.


The Kunbi’s identity dates back to Maharashtra’s formation. In 1979, the Second Backward Classes Commission recognised Marathas as a forward caste. A request to include Marathas, with Kunbis, on the Central Backward List was rejected after detailed hearings, as they weren’t deemed socially backward.


Class within a class

For any community to be recognised as a backward class, it must be socially and educationally disadvantaged. The Maratha community, particularly in western Maharashtra, has long held influence in politics, administration, sugar cooperatives, and educational institutions. Despite these advantages, many within the community claim to lack access to education and employment.


Conversely, Kunbis from Marathwada and Vidarbha are recognised as socially and educationally backward and are already included in the OBC list. This raises a key question: can all Marathas holding Kunbi certificates be classified as OBC, even if they enjoy a sound socio-economic and educational status?


Under Article 16(4) of the Indian Constitution, the State may make provisions for communities inadequately represented in public services. However, given the strong presence of Marathas in state services, granting blanket OBC status to all Marathas with Kunbi certificates would challenge the constitutional principle of genuine social and educational backwardness.


Is caste alone enough?

Article 15(4) of the Indian Constitution empowers the state to make special provisions for the advancement of socially and educationally backward classes. However, current demands for the Maratha reservation often hinge on economic grounds. A plain reading of Articles 15(4) and 16 shows no mention of economic backwardness as a criterion. To include 'economically backward' groups, a constitutional amendment would be required, raising complex debates on the Constitution’s basic structure.


The Supreme Court’s landmark Indira Sawhney judgement clarified that caste, not solely economic status, defines backwardness under Article 16(4). Economic criteria alone cannot justify a reservation. This distinction between 'caste' and 'class' risks reinforcing entrenched caste identities, particularly in rural Maharashtra, where caste still shapes access to education and employment.


Many landless or marginal Maratha farmers in Marathwada and Vidarbha are socially and educationally backward. The state should prioritise its SEBC inclusion, with or without Kunbi certificates, based on verifiable data.


Maratha reservation is as political as it is legal, often resurfacing during elections to sway voters rather than drive real progress. Without solid data, lasting reform is unlikely. A caste-based census in Maharashtra is vital to assess true backwardness and shape a fair policy.


(The writer is a lawyer practicing in Mumbai. View personal.)

 
 
 

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