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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Why Was Srijit's Film Excluded from Indian Panorama at IFFI?

Updated: Nov 12, 2024

Srijit

Mukherjee is among the top-ranking directors in contemporary Bengali cinema. He shoots different films almost simultaneously so that there are several releases under his directorial baton released within the same calendar year. He is also an extremely versatile director whose spans many genres ranging from historical fiction, re-interpreted and re-written remakes, thrillers, romances and so on.


He began his directorial journey in 2010 with Autograph, a reinterpreted version of Satyajit Ray’s Nayak still remembered not only for the masterful performance of Prosenjit but more importantly, for the magical songs and mood music the film was enriched with.


Though he has individually won five National Awards for his different contributions to Bengali cinema, Padatik till today, will be considered his best filmover his directorial career spanning 14 years. For the unitiated, Padatik is the name of a classic feature film made by Mrinal Sen himself in 1974. Srijit’s film has no link whatsoever with Mrinal Sen’s film though their titles are identical.


Srijit’s film traces the life of Mrinal Sen from boyhood till his death. The film opens with a partly fictionalised, Black-and-White clipping reiterating the huge processions following the passing away of Rabindranath Tagore when among the thronging crowds, a young man carrying the dead body of his infant baby, loses the baby in the stampede.


Tagore has no link with the film but it focusses on how the life of an ordinary man can get destroyed in a stampede gathered to pay their last respects to a great man.


Padatik means “foot soldier” a metaphorical title that suggests the unstable life of the runaway political rebel in Mrinal Sen’s original film forced to hide to escape police arrest. What kind of “foot soldier is he? Is he forced to keep running? Or has he chosen to keep running?


The answer to this is suggested towards the end of the film which leaves the question open for the audience to draw conclusions from. Srijit’s Padatik is a tribute to this great man who, in terms of his work as a filmmaker, had been a foot soldier all his life, never ever compromising to commercial demands even when there was no rice in the kitchen, with his wife, Gita, offering a strong pillar of support. Says Srijit of this film, “Actually interweaving the various aspects of Mrinal Sen’s life — his personal life, his upheavals, his work, his politics, Mrinal Sen as a father, as a husband, his relationship with his peers, his filmmaking style — all of it has been cooked together in the perfect proportion in Padatik. People are calling it my best film ever. It is very overwhelming.”


The latest news is that Srijit Mukherjee’s Padatik has been selected for special screening as Indian Panorama Feature Jury Recommends at the 55th International Film Festival of India, which will be held in Goa from Nov 20 to 28. The selection resolves the controversy regarding the film’s initial exclusion allegedly due to its Mrinal Sen association.


What “association”?

The firm belief that Mrinal Sen was a believer in Leftist ideology which goes against the Hindu Right evident from Goa IFFI’s choice of the film on Veer Savarkar as the inaugural film. But no one has ever expressed this in so many words.


Whilst discussing the exclusion of ‘Padatik’ from the Indian Panorama and its subsequent inclusion for special screening, Mukherji referenced Prasun Chatterjee’s ‘Dostojee’. The film initially wasn’t included but was subsequently added upon jury recommendation. I’m delighted this occurred with ‘Padatik’ as well,” Mukherji said.


Director Chandraprakash Dwivedi, jury chairperson, said, “Mrinal Sen was and remains an icon of Bharat and an inspiration for countless cinema enthusiasts worldwide who cherished his storytelling and admired his approach to social issues through films. I’m exceedingly pleased to see Padatik at the 55th IFFI through the jury’s collective wisdom and endeavour.”


(The author is a veteran film writer based in Kolkata. Views personal.)

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