Wings of Deterrence

Manila’s billion-dollar fighter jet purchase signals a new chapter in US’ security strategy amid China’s maritime assertiveness.

The United States’ decision to approve the sale of 20 F-16 fighter jets to the Philippines, valued at $5.58 billion marks a defining moment in the evolving security architecture of the Indo-Pacific. Manila, long reliant on outdated hardware and a weak deterrence posture, is finally embracing a stronger air force capable of countering Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and preparing for contingencies in Taiwan’s defence.

The deal signals Washington’s determination to bolster its oldest ally in Asia against Beijing’s growing assertiveness. More tellingly, it coincides with urgent calls from the Filipino military leadership to prepare for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Alongside these jets comes an arsenal of guided bombs, Sidewinder missiles, and radar systems that will modernize the Philippine Air Force (PAF). The State Department justified the sale on strategic grounds, citing Manila’s role in maintaining regional stability. The message seems to be that Washington wants a more capable Philippines to deter Chinese aggression - both in the South China Sea and, potentially, in Taiwan’s defence.

The U.S.-Philippines alliance, forged in the crucible of the Second World War and strengthened during the Cold War, has always been strategic. Throughout the 20th century, Washington viewed the Philippines as a crucial foothold in the Pacific, hosting major U.S. military bases at Clark and Subic Bay until nationalist sentiment forced their closure in the 1990s. Yet, even after their departure, security cooperation endured, driven first by counterterrorism efforts in the post-9/11 era and now by shared concerns over China’s regional ambitions.

This latest weapons deal is part of a broader realignment. Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Manila has sought deeper security ties with Washington, reversing his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s flirtation with Beijing. Recent years have seen joint U.S.-Philippines military exercises expand, new defence pacts signed, and even discussions about granting U.S. forces rotational access to key Philippine bases. The return of F-16s to the archipelago after decades of reliance on aging South Korean FA-50 fighters suggests the Philippines is once again embracing its role as a frontline U.S. ally.

For Beijing, the F-16 sale represents a provocation. China has spent years tightening its grip over the South China Sea, transforming reefs into militarized islands and deploying coast guard and naval forces to intimidate rival claimants, including the Philippines.

Confrontations have escalated, from water cannon skirmishes near Second Thomas Shoal to shadowing of Philippine naval vessels. The acquisition of F-16s enhances Manila’s ability to contest these waters, particularly with improved maritime domain awareness and enemy air defence suppression capabilities.

Yet, the bigger geopolitical shift may lie beyond the South China Sea. General Romeo Brawner, the Filipino military chief, has urged his forces to prepare for a Chinese attack on Taiwan, a scenario that would almost certainly draw in the United States. The Philippines’ proximity to Taiwan makes it a critical player in any conflict, serving as a potential launching pad for U.S. military operations.

For all its strategic merit, the F-16 deal does not instantly transform the Philippines into a military heavyweight. The country still lacks the naval and air defence infrastructure to fully utilize such advanced fighters. Its fleet is small, its air force underfunded, and its military stretched thin by insurgencies in the south. The transition to F-16s will take time, and without sustained investment in training, logistics, and operational readiness, Manila risks acquiring high-tech weapons without the means to deploy them effectively.

Nonetheless, this sale sends a message that the era of American complacency in Southeast Asia is over. Washington has learned from the failures of the past decade, when China’s rapid militarization of the South China Sea was met with little resistance. By reinforcing Manila, the U.S. is redrawing the military balance of the Indo-Pacific. The next time Chinese ships test Philippine resolve, they may find a more formidable force staring back.