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By:

Abhijit Joshi

31 August 2024 at 10:09:24 am

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would...

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would surely be included: “Sharad Pawar ke siyasi faisle par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never assume you know Sharad Pawar's next political move). Few leaders in independent India have reinvented themselves as often, confounded both allies and adversaries with equal regularity, or remained politically relevant across nearly five decades quite like Sharad Pawar. Every major realignment in Maharashtra has, in one way or another, borne his imprint. Backstairs Intrigue That reputation has once again set the state’s political circles buzzing. A late-night meeting between senior NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) leader Jayant Patil and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, followed by indications that Pawar's party could extend conditional support to the Centre's proposed Delimitation Bill, has revived speculation that Maharashtra may be headed towards yet another political reshuffle. Supriya Sule has firmly dismissed suggestions that her party is preparing to join the NDA, insisting that any support for the Delimitation Bill would depend entirely on safeguards ensuring fairness for every state. Yet, the rumours persist. That, perhaps, is the enduring ‘Pawar effect.’ In Maharashtra, a single meeting involving Sharad Pawar is often enough to trigger discussions of an entirely new government. Pawar’s political career has consistently demonstrated that certainty is an illusion. In 1978, barely 38 years old, he engineered one of Maharashtra’s greatest political upsets. Breaking away from the Congress, he toppled the Vasantdada Patil government and stitched together the Progressive Democratic Front, or Pulod, by bringing together parties separated by ideology but united by arithmetic. He became the state’s youngest Chief Minister, a distinction that still defines his public image. That episode also revealed the two principles that have shaped his politics ever since. Ideology, for Pawar, has rarely been an immovable barrier. Political arithmetic has almost always mattered more. Equally, power has never been viewed as permanent. The pattern repeated itself through the decades. Pawar moved between Congress politics and regional politics with remarkable ease, served as India’s Defence Minister, broke away to establish the Nationalist Congress Party in 1999 over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin, spent nearly fifteen years governing alongside the Congress, and then stunned the political establishment yet again in 2019 by helping construct the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Few believed the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP could coexist under one roof. Pawar proved otherwise. Even the dramatic dawn swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis and the late Ajit Pawar in November 2019 ultimately enhanced Sharad Pawar’s reputation. Within days, he had reunited most of his fractured party and succeeded in installing Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. What initially appeared to be his biggest setback became another demonstration of his political resilience. Today, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is no longer the formidable organisation it was before the split of 2023. While he retains considerable public goodwill, national stature and a respectable parliamentary presence, his legislative strength within Maharashtra has diminished considerably, prompted questions about the party’s future. Reports suggest that sections within the NCP (SP) are increasingly uncomfortable with the prospect of remaining in perpetual opposition and favour exploring some form of understanding with the BJP. Pawar himself is believed to have resisted such suggestions, while Supriya Sule has repeatedly ruled out any immediate shift. Yet the existence of internal debate appears difficult to dismiss. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly asserted that there is no question of new entrants joining the Mahayuti. His statement reflects political logic. The BJP already enjoys numerical dominance alongside Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Bringing Sharad Pawar into the alliance may strengthen the NDA externally, but it could also generate fresh leadership ambitions, competing centres of influence and unnecessary internal tensions. Issue-Based Cooperation If there is any movement, therefore, it is more likely to begin with issue-based cooperation in Parliament than with an immediate formal alliance. That explains why the Delimitation Bill has assumed such significance. Supriya Sule has indicated that her party could support the legislation provided the Centre guarantees a uniform 50 percent increase in parliamentary seats for every state. The position differs from that adopted by several INDIA bloc partners and has naturally fuelled speculation. Yet issue-based support should not automatically be interpreted as political surrender. Sharad Pawar has rarely subscribed to the idea that opposition requires opposing every government initiative. Throughout his career he has maintained working relationships across party lines, often separating legislative cooperation from electoral competition. That flexibility has repeatedly helped him preserve political relevance even when his party's electoral fortunes fluctuated. If, despite present denials, Pawar eventually chooses to support or formally align with the NDA, the consequences would extend well beyond Maharashtra. For the INDIA bloc, it would represent perhaps the most damaging psychological blow in western India, depriving it of one of its most experienced strategists and consensus-builders. Congress would lose a veteran ally at precisely the moment it is attempting to rebuild its organisational strength in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) could find itself increasingly isolated, forcing a reassessment of both alliances and political strategy before the next Assembly election. And for the BJP, it would amount to the political neutralisation of perhaps its most accomplished regional rival. Sharad Pawar’s greatest political strength has always been his refusal to close any door before absolutely necessary. Strategic ambiguity has been one of its principal instruments. At 85, he remains among the last practitioners of an older style of coalition politics, where negotiation often counts for more than confrontation, and where tomorrow’s ally may well have been yesterday’s fiercest opponent. (The writer is a political observer. Views personal.

A Nation Unsafe for Women

In a nation that celebrates its women as embodiments of strength and resilience—from goddesses in mythology to leaders in modern boardrooms, the persistent surge in crimes against them paints a damning picture of societal failure. The latest National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data for 2022-2024 reveals not just isolated incidents but a disturbing national trend that demands immediate introspection and action. As India strides toward economic superpower status, the safety of half its population remains perilously compromised, turning homes, streets and workplaces into arenas of fear rather than empowerment.


Stark Numbers

The NCRB’s Table 3A.1 on Crimes Against Women (under IPC and SLL) lays bare the escalating crisis. Across India, reported cases have climbed steadily: from 4,45,256 in 2022 to 4,48,221 in 2023, reaching a staggering 4,73,510 in 2024. This represents a concerning upward trajectory, with the rate of crimes against women (per lakh population) standing at 64.6 in 2024. While charge-sheeting rates hover around 83-84%, conviction outcomes often lag, underscoring systemic delays in justice delivery.

 

State-wise disparities amplify the alarm. Uttar Pradesh consistently records the highest absolute numbers, with cases rising from 25,100 in 2022 to over 31,000 by 2024. Rajasthan follows as a major hotspot, alongside Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal, each contributing thousands of additional incidents annually. Union Territories like Delhi paint an even bleaker urban picture, with rates exceeding 130 per lakh in some years, reflecting the vulnerabilities of dense metropolitan life. Southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, often lauded for social indicators are not immune, showing notable increases in specific categories. The mid-year projected population figures contextualize these rates, revealing that even ‘progressive’ regions are failing to stem the tide.

 

These are not mere numbers; they translate into lives shattered by rape, domestic violence, molestation and cybercrimes. The data highlights a post-pandemic surge, where lockdowns may have hidden abuses within homes while economic stresses exacerbated tensions. What was once whispered about as ‘women’s issues’ has ballooned into a public health and developmental emergency, eroding trust in institutions and deterring women's full participation in society.

 

Deep-Rooted Failures

The growth in crimes against women stems from a toxic interplay of patriarchal mindsets, inadequate enforcement and socio-economic pressures. At its core lies entrenched gender inequality. Despite legal reforms like the 2013 Criminal Law (Amendment) Act and the 2020 POCSO enhancements, implementation remains patchy. The police forces, often under-resourced and overburdened, exhibit low sensitivity toward gender-based cases. Delayed FIR registrations, victim-blaming during investigations and political interference frequently result in low conviction rates, emboldening perpetrators.

 

Urbanization and rapid social change have compounded the problem. Migration to cities disrupts traditional support systems, leaving women more exposed in unfamiliar environments. The digital explosion has birthed new threats, online harassment and deepfake abuse - yet cybercrime cells struggle with capacity and awareness. Economic disparities play a role too: poverty, unemployment and alcohol abuse within families correlate strongly with domestic violence spikes. In rural heartlands, caste and honour-based violence persist, while in elite circles, power imbalances enable workplace exploitation.

 

Cultural factors cannot be ignored. Bollywood’s objectification, regressive family norms and selective outrage on social media normalize violence. Education, while expanding, often fails to instil gender sensitivity, leaving young men unprepared for egalitarian relationships. Weak child protection and poor mental health infrastructure mean cycles of trauma perpetuate across generations. The NCRB figures, though improved in reporting due to greater awareness via schemes like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, likely underrepresent the true scale, as stigma silences countless survivors.


Addressing this crisis requires more than rhetoric. Governments must prioritize gender budgeting, strengthening police training, fast-track courts and one-stop centers for comprehensive support. Community-led initiatives like sensitization drives in schools and villages, robust helplines and tech-enabled safety apps can bridge gaps. Corporate India and civil society must champion workplace safety and bystander intervention. Crucially, men must be enlisted as allies, dismantling toxic masculinity through education and accountability.

 

The data from 2022-2024 is a wake-up call, not a verdict of inevitable decline. India’s demographic dividend hinges on securing women’s agency. By confronting these uncomfortable truths with data-driven policies and cultural shifts, we can forge a safer tomorrow. Our daughters deserve better than statistics of suffering, they deserve a nation that stands fiercely in their defence.


(The writer is a former college Principal and Founder of Supporting Shoulders, an Odisha-based non-profit Trust. Views personal.)

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