top of page

By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Aapulki—Where Young Minds Find a Safe Harbour

In an age where students are constantly juggling expectations, racing against deadlines, and battling unseen emotional storms, mental well-being often takes a back seat. While classrooms focus on grades and playgrounds shape physical fitness, the silent struggles of young minds frequently go unnoticed. Breaking this long-standing pattern, Nanded Education Society’s Science College, Nanded, has stepped up to the plate by launching an innovative initiative, ‘Aapulki,’ a dedicated mental health support center, under the guidance of President Dr Venkatesh Kabde, Vice-President CA Dr Praveen Patil, and Secretary Shyamal Patki, that places compassion at the very heart of education.


True to its name, which signifies warmth, care, and emotional closeness, 'Aapulki' offers students a safe space to open up and find their footing. At a time when pressure threatens to overwhelm, this initiative stands as a timely reminder that nurturing the mind is just as important as sharpening the intellect. What is Aapulki? It is more than a word, more than a programme, and far more than a room within college walls. Aapulki is the warmth in relationships, the quiet glow of affection, and the sense of belonging that makes one feel heard, understood, and cared for. Giving this very name to a mental health support center is not accidental; it is deeply intentional.


Recognising that students today are often caught between academic pressure and emotional turbulence, the college has taken a pioneering step by setting up a dedicated mental health support center named ‘Aapulki.’ Just as sports teachers are appointed at schools and colleges to nurture physical fitness, the college acknowledged the equally vital need for mental well-being. By reading the writing on the wall and understanding the silent struggles of students, the college has brought mental health out of the shadows and into the mainstream of campus life.


The idea of the ‘Aapulki’ center was proposed by renowned cardiologist and president of Nanded Education Society, former MP Dr Venkatesh Kabde. The choice of the name itself speaks volumes. The word carries compassion within it; it invites rather than intimidates. Dr Kabde believed that a support center should not feel clinical or distant but should draw students in, helping them open up without hesitation. When the name itself feels like a gentle embrace, half the battle is already won. The center is coordinated by Sangeeta Modi, with Chaitali Kakde providing counselling support.


The center was inaugurated on September 26, 2025, in the presence of Dr Venkatesh Kabde and Kunjama Kabde, along with the principal, Dr L.P Shinde, Vice-Principal Eknath Khillare, faculty members, and students. The occasion marked not just the opening of a facility but the beginning of a more empathetic academic culture.


At its heart, ‘Aapulki’ aims to support students navigating emotional storms and help them get back on their feet. In an age where anxiety, stress, and emotional overload are becoming part of everyday life, the center works as an anchor, enabling students to cope, adapt, and grow. It focuses on students’ emotional, mental, and academic development, helping them deal with pressure related to studies, relationships, and self-expectations.


The purpose of the Aapulki Mental Health Support Centre is clear: to safeguard students’ mental well-being by offering emotional support in a safe and trustworthy environment. It provides a space where students can speak freely about stress, anxiety, depression, and other psychological concerns without fear of being judged. Here, problems are not brushed under the carpet; they are talked through, worked on, and gradually resolved.


Initially, the center was started with students of Class XI and XII in mind. Over time, as the ‘Aapulki’ word spread and trust grew, undergraduate and postgraduate students from BSc and MSc courses also began to seek support. Counselling sessions may be individual or group-based.


Two guiding principles form the backbone of Aapulki. The first is privacy; everything shared by a student remains strictly confidential. The second is a non-judgmental approach; students are never labeled or criticised based on their problems. These golden rules encourage students to speak their minds openly and unburden their hearts without holding back.


(The writer is a journalist based in Latur. Views personal.)

Comments

bottom of page