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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Ajit Pawar dreamt big for Baramati

Mumbai/Pune: Shunned as a dry and drought-prone sub-district of Pune on the Deccan Plateau barely five decades ago, Baramati today symbolizes one of Maharashtra’s most striking examples of systematic rural transformation with the lion’s share of credit going to the state’s numero uno Sharad Pawar clan.

 

The prime activity of farming thrives here, cooperatives flourish, industries are booming, education soars and the infrastructure is envied even by many developed urban centres.

 

Little wonder that the Pune region ranks lowest in terms of farmers suicides – in 2024, there were only 24 deaths, as per official data, said Vidarbha Jan Andolan Samiti President Kishore Tiwari, who has chronicled distress in farmlands of the state for three decades.

 

“The Pawars ensured that the region got adequate funds, irrigation, power and other planned facilities that helped the farmers immensely… We wish all other districts in the state to emulate this example, especially Vidarbha which is regarded as the farmland suicides hotbed,” Tiwari told The Perfect Voice.

 

Though the foundations of the sea-change was laid by Sharad Pawar, later it was his nephew Ajit Pawar who architected his uncle’s long-term vision to reality through untiring efforts, single-minded dedication and tough groundwork for over four decades to achieve what is the famed ‘Baramati Model’.

 

As several lakhs of mourners turned up from all over Western Maharashtra and other places to bid a final adieu to Ajit Pawar on Thursday (Jan. 29), many were seen weeping, crying and wailing, and some expressed concerns for the future of Baramati and Pune district – in the absence of their active ‘messiah’.

 

While Sharad Pawar laid the ground-map for Baramati, Ajit Pawar implemented it by ensuring that government policies, big and small projects and different schemes not only reached the region but tangibly changed the lives of the locals.

 

As he grew in politics and entered governance in various positions, Ajit Pawar quickly grasped how the official machinery worked, and along with his stern approach, fiscal and administrative discipline plus knowledge of his home turf, he kickstarted the evolution of Baramati and surroundings.

 

Way back in 2009, when he was not even a Deputy CM, Ajit Pawar told a group of visiting journalists from Mumbai his dreams of catapulting Baramati onto the world map in various aspects of a model of rural-led development and progress that touched each citizen.

 

For this, he persistently advocated the upgradation of the small Baramati Airport, built by the MIDC in 1996, having a short runway (1770 metres long x 30 metres wide), where his ill-fated aircraft crashed on Wednesday morning. The airport is mostly used for small aircraft operations and training purposes.

 

Former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan under whose tenure Ajit Pawar first became the Deputy CM, said that “he was a rare politician, a young visionary, dynamic and decisive, passionately pro-farmer and supportive of the cooperative sector”.

 

“When I was CM and he was the Deputy CM, he helped me take many tough decisions in the public interest. He was a sure-shot to lead the state (as CM), sooner than later. We have lost a great national-level leader whom coming generations would emulate,” Chavan told The Perfect Voice, acknowledging Ajit Pawar’s contributions to the state.

 

Baramati Effect

A local party activist, Milind Jadhav recalled how, when the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) founded by Sharad Pawar suffered a vertical split in July 2023, “every home and family in Baramati was splintered”.

 

“All the people were at a loss to decide whom to support in the ‘kaka-putnya’ political war, particularly during the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Thankfully, the politics was strictly kept at bay from Baramati’s development and also the Pawar household, he said.

 

Despite the political wranglings, Ajit Pawar visited Baramati at least once a week, reviewed important proposals, funds and expenses, status reports and other minute details, at times, showing more insight than the officialdom, was a stickler for the ‘ghadi’ (watch), often jumped up for unannounced site visits that rattled the officials.

 

The Baramati Industrial Development Corporation – part of the MIDC – came into existence in 1962 under Sharad Pawar, but under Ajit Pawar it spread wings to come up as an ideal industrial zone. National and international companies like Kalyani Steels, Bharat Forge, Godfrey Phillips, SMT Ltd. Imsofer, Schreiber, Piaggio, Ferrero, Senvion, India's first wine factory at Narayangaon (1982), and later proliferated to Nashik.

 

Simultaneously, the western Maharashtra’s agriculture backbone of sugarcane, grapes, jowar, wheat and cotton support many of the top performer cooperatives in the region and the Baramati Hi-Tech Textile Park (established in 2008 through Sharad Pawar’s efforts), support domestic apparels industry creating jobs and prosperity.

 

Strong background support comes from institutions like Agriculture Development Trust, several agriculture colleges affiliated to major agriculture universities, all combining for activities like modern farming techniques, entrepreneurship, water conservation, women’s education and empowerment, health-care besides skill development and upgradation.

 


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