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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Strong Outside, Gentle Within

Pawar was both trusted and deeply connected with the masses

Pune: It was almost heartbreaking for me to hear about the plane crash in Baramati. The sudden and shocking death of Ajitdada Pawar, along with his staff, has left me deeply shaken.


My mind went back to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. That was when I had the chance to work with him during Sunetra Pawar’s campaign against Supriya Sule in the Baramati constituency.


During those days, I was deeply touched by the personal warmth of Ajitdada. His fatherly affection toward all his family members, including Parth, Jay, and Sunetra Tai, as well as his personal staff at his Pune residence, Jijai Bungalow, left a lasting impression on me.


Ajitdada was always caring and practical in his approach to work. You would always feel a sense of positivity the moment you entered his “Jijai”. Even a few minutes of conversation with Ajitdada made you feel grounded and practical. I always met him early in the morning, between 6:30 am and 7:30 am, when he was fresh, calm, and attentive.


At Jijai, you were always offered poha and tea, a simple gesture that reflected his care and respect for his karykartas.


I never once heard Ajitdada express personal anguish, even during his political fight with his cousin sister Supriya during the Lok Sabha elections. He always insisted that rivalry should remain political and never become personal, which I believe is rare among today’s politicians. That is what made him a rare combination of a mass leader and a deeply trustworthy figure in Maharashtra politics.


Ajitdada was like a coconut—strong on the outside, yet gentle, warm, and caring within. Very often, his honesty did not bring him favourable political returns, but he never regretted it. He always stood firmly by his words and actions. I never saw him make gestures just for show, to pass the time, or merely to please people without expecting sincere work in return.


Whether at his residence in Pune or in Baramati, Ajitdada was always surrounded by hundreds of karykartas and people. This itself reflected his strong grassroots connection with the masses.


Even after his party’s recent setback in the Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad municipal elections, he openly admitted that Punekars had not voted for him. He said he would work harder, with an open mind, to win back their mandate.


Will Ajitdada’s next generation carry forward his political legacy, or will this mark the end of the Ajit Pawar family’s political journey? But one truth is already clear today. There will not be another “Dada” in Maharashtra politics who is both so trusted and so deeply connected with the masses. Jijai will always remember him as their own “Dada”.

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