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Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

MPs rebellion ‘splits’ even some families

Mumbai: Amid the rebellion by 6 Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, at least two of them have shot into the spotlight, but for entirely different and non-political reasons – Nagesh Patil-Ashtikar (Hingoli) and Sanjay Dina-Patil (Mumbai North-East). Despite their fathers currently in the process of shifting loyalties to the Shiv Sena headed by Deputy CM Eknath Shinde, the son and daughter, respectively, of both these MPs have chosen to stay anchored firmly with SS (UBT) President and ex-CM Uddhav Thackeray....

MPs rebellion ‘splits’ even some families

Mumbai: Amid the rebellion by 6 Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, at least two of them have shot into the spotlight, but for entirely different and non-political reasons – Nagesh Patil-Ashtikar (Hingoli) and Sanjay Dina-Patil (Mumbai North-East). Despite their fathers currently in the process of shifting loyalties to the Shiv Sena headed by Deputy CM Eknath Shinde, the son and daughter, respectively, of both these MPs have chosen to stay anchored firmly with SS (UBT) President and ex-CM Uddhav Thackeray. They are Krishna Nagesh Patil-Ashtikar and Rajool Sanjay Patil and both are emerging politicians in their own right and with politically bright prospects. Rajool is a SS (UBT) Municipal Corporator from Ward No. 114 (Bhandup) in her father’ constituency, and Krishna is the official Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) candidate for the Nanded Local Authorities constituency in the Maharashtra Legislature’s upper house. However, the abrupt rebellion by their fathers - along with four other SS (UBT) MPs has raised question marks on their own loyalties and political moorings – with the MLCs election results scheduled on Monday. A Deputy Leader from Pune guardedly said that “the same norms under the anti-defection laws for parliament would apply” at all levels, preventing the duo (Krishna and Rajool) from following in their fathers’ footsteps. “After all, there are many examples where in the same family, different members owe allegiance to different political parties. They may have made their personal political calculations and survival before taking any plunge blindly in the name of ideology,” the leader told ‘The Perfect Voice’, requesting anonymity. A Mumbai leader averred that in case the political sand slips - for whatever reasons - in the ongoing defection drama, at least all in the family may not have to pay the price for a botch-up, as “these youngsters still have a long road ahead in politics”. On June 18, when Ashtikar’s name came among the six potential turncoats, Krishna faced an embarrassing situation as the MLC polling was underway that day. Krishna quickly mouthed bites to proclaim his allegiance to Thackeray and an equally bewildered Rajool - elected as a BMC corporator just six months ago - instantly declared her support to SS (UBT) and even joined a protest against her father’s decision. Both the youngsters confronting a peculiar family-cum-political divide put up brave faces and publicly claimed that they had “absolutely no inkling” of the political coup currently underway and are firmly with Thackeray. For the present, however, the SS (UBT) camp is somewhat relieved that the damage caused by the proposed exit of the 6 MPs has not percolated to their family members, affording it time to take some proactive measures to prevent a similar scenario in the coming times. SS (UBT) Deputy Leader dares MP’s son A skeptical SS (UBT) Deputy Leader Sushma Andhare and others immediately pounced on Krishna Ashtikar, questioning the credibility of his words after his father and party MP from Hingoli Nagesh Patil-Ashtikar’s plans to switch sides. “Go and perform your father’s funeral rituals (pind-daan) immediately to prove your claims that you are different from your father…” a livid Andhare dared Krishna, who retorted by saying that he is “answerable only to the SS (UBT) supremo and none else”.

Maharashtra politics at crossroads yet again

Governor Acharya Devvrat, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde arrive to pay their last respects to Ajit Pawar in Baramati.
Governor Acharya Devvrat, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde arrive to pay their last respects to Ajit Pawar in Baramati.

Mumbai: Ajit Pawar’s sudden death has thrown Maharashtra’s fragile post 2023 political arithmetic into flux. The immediate question is whether the two NCP factions will merge — stabilising both the Centre and the Mahayuti in the short term — or whether a split realignment will strengthen the BJP at the expense of a distinct NCP. Local power centres in Mumbai and Pune will be decisive in the coming weeks as party legislators and state leaders weigh options.


Presence of Ajit Pawar’s faction within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) played the role of a dependable NDA ally, lending numerical strength and political legitimacy without demanding a visible share in power. In Maharashtra, where coalition arithmetic remains delicate, the calculus has been far more strategic. BJP’s decision to induct Ajit Pawar into the Mahayuti alliance was widely viewed as an effort to balance Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and prevent any single ally from dominating the coalition. This triangulation has helped the BJP maintain leverage while ensuring the continuity of the state government.


Postponed Reunion

For months, there were strong indications that the two NCP factions—one led by Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP) and the other by Ajit Pawar—were exploring the possibility of reunification. Political analysts suggest that such a move was deliberately deferred, reportedly at the behest of the BJP, until after the local body elections. With the untimely demise of the prominent NCP leader, the political environment has shifted yet again. The emotional and organisational vacuum has revived discussions around reunification, succession, and long-term positioning of the party within Maharashtra’s power structure.


Scenario One: Merger and power-sharing within the NDA

Among political observers, the most discussed—and arguably most stable—scenario involves a merger of the two NCP factions followed by their formal accommodation within the NDA and the Mahayuti. In such an arrangement, senior NCP-SP leaders like Supriya Sule and Jayant Patil could take on roles at the Centre and in the Maharashtra government respectively.


This outcome would offer multiple advantages. For the BJP, it would consolidate numbers, reduce internal coalition friction, and neutralise the Pawar factor by integrating it rather than confronting it. For the NCP, reunification would restore organisational coherence and protect its identity while retaining access to power. For the state government, it would likely translate into greater stability, particularly as Maharashtra moves toward crucial electoral milestones.


Scenario Two: Sharad Pawar resists alignment with the BJP

The situation becomes considerably more complicated if Sharad Pawar chooses to remain outside the BJP-led arrangements. Such a decision would deepen the fault lines within the NCP. In this scenario, several legislators—MLAs, MLCs, and even MPs—from Ajit Pawar’s faction may opt to directly join the BJP to safeguard or enhance their political futures in both the state and at the Centre.


While this could strengthen the BJP numerically, it would come at the cost of hollowing out the NCP as an independent political force. At the same time, not all leaders from either faction may find direct absorption into the BJP politically or ideologically comfortable, particularly those with strong regional bases built under the NCP’s banner.


Scenario Three: A separate NCP within the NDA framework

If resistance to a merger with the BJP remains strong among elected representatives, a third option could emerge: the NCP continuing as a distinct entity within the NDA and Mahayuti. This arrangement would preserve the party’s separate identity while aligning it with the ruling coalition at both levels.


Such a model, however, would require careful power-sharing and constant negotiation, especially given the BJP’s dominant position. It would also test Sharad Pawar’s willingness to accept a reduced, non-central role within an alliance led firmly by the BJP.


Pawar Question

At the heart of all these scenarios lies Sharad Pawar himself. Should the party he founded insist on aligning closely with the BJP without a decisive leadership role for him, Pawar may choose to step away from active politics rather than operate as a subordinate partner.


An announcement of retirement, while symbolic, would mark the end of an era in Maharashtra politics and accelerate generational change within the NCP.


Road Ahead

For now, Maharashtra’s political future remains open-ended. The choices made by the Pawar family, the calculations of the BJP, and the aspirations of NCP legislators will together determine whether the state moves toward consolidation or further fragmentation.


What is clear is that every possible outcome carries implications not just for Maharashtra, but for the broader balance of power in national politics as well.

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