Maharashtra politics at crossroads yet again

Governor Acharya Devvrat, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde arrive to pay their last respects to Ajit Pawar in Baramati.

Mumbai: Ajit Pawar’s sudden death has thrown Maharashtra’s fragile post 2023 political arithmetic into flux. The immediate question is whether the two NCP factions will merge — stabilising both the Centre and the Mahayuti in the short term — or whether a split realignment will strengthen the BJP at the expense of a distinct NCP. Local power centres in Mumbai and Pune will be decisive in the coming weeks as party legislators and state leaders weigh options.

Presence of Ajit Pawar’s faction within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) played the role of a dependable NDA ally, lending numerical strength and political legitimacy without demanding a visible share in power. In Maharashtra, where coalition arithmetic remains delicate, the calculus has been far more strategic. BJP’s decision to induct Ajit Pawar into the Mahayuti alliance was widely viewed as an effort to balance Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and prevent any single ally from dominating the coalition. This triangulation has helped the BJP maintain leverage while ensuring the continuity of the state government.

Postponed Reunion

For months, there were strong indications that the two NCP factions—one led by Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP) and the other by Ajit Pawar—were exploring the possibility of reunification. Political analysts suggest that such a move was deliberately deferred, reportedly at the behest of the BJP, until after the local body elections. With the untimely demise of the prominent NCP leader, the political environment has shifted yet again. The emotional and organisational vacuum has revived discussions around reunification, succession, and long-term positioning of the party within Maharashtra’s power structure.

Scenario One: Merger and power-sharing within the NDA

Among political observers, the most discussed—and arguably most stable—scenario involves a merger of the two NCP factions followed by their formal accommodation within the NDA and the Mahayuti. In such an arrangement, senior NCP-SP leaders like Supriya Sule and Jayant Patil could take on roles at the Centre and in the Maharashtra government respectively.

This outcome would offer multiple advantages. For the BJP, it would consolidate numbers, reduce internal coalition friction, and neutralise the Pawar factor by integrating it rather than confronting it. For the NCP, reunification would restore organisational coherence and protect its identity while retaining access to power. For the state government, it would likely translate into greater stability, particularly as Maharashtra moves toward crucial electoral milestones.

Scenario Two: Sharad Pawar resists alignment with the BJP

The situation becomes considerably more complicated if Sharad Pawar chooses to remain outside the BJP-led arrangements. Such a decision would deepen the fault lines within the NCP. In this scenario, several legislators—MLAs, MLCs, and even MPs—from Ajit Pawar’s faction may opt to directly join the BJP to safeguard or enhance their political futures in both the state and at the Centre.

While this could strengthen the BJP numerically, it would come at the cost of hollowing out the NCP as an independent political force. At the same time, not all leaders from either faction may find direct absorption into the BJP politically or ideologically comfortable, particularly those with strong regional bases built under the NCP’s banner.

Scenario Three: A separate NCP within the NDA framework

If resistance to a merger with the BJP remains strong among elected representatives, a third option could emerge: the NCP continuing as a distinct entity within the NDA and Mahayuti. This arrangement would preserve the party’s separate identity while aligning it with the ruling coalition at both levels.

Such a model, however, would require careful power-sharing and constant negotiation, especially given the BJP’s dominant position. It would also test Sharad Pawar’s willingness to accept a reduced, non-central role within an alliance led firmly by the BJP.

Pawar Question

At the heart of all these scenarios lies Sharad Pawar himself. Should the party he founded insist on aligning closely with the BJP without a decisive leadership role for him, Pawar may choose to step away from active politics rather than operate as a subordinate partner.

An announcement of retirement, while symbolic, would mark the end of an era in Maharashtra politics and accelerate generational change within the NCP.

Road Ahead

For now, Maharashtra’s political future remains open-ended. The choices made by the Pawar family, the calculations of the BJP, and the aspirations of NCP legislators will together determine whether the state moves toward consolidation or further fragmentation.

What is clear is that every possible outcome carries implications not just for Maharashtra, but for the broader balance of power in national politics as well.