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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Maharashtra politics at crossroads yet again

Governor Acharya Devvrat, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde arrive to pay their last respects to Ajit Pawar in Baramati.
Governor Acharya Devvrat, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde arrive to pay their last respects to Ajit Pawar in Baramati.

Mumbai: Ajit Pawar’s sudden death has thrown Maharashtra’s fragile post 2023 political arithmetic into flux. The immediate question is whether the two NCP factions will merge — stabilising both the Centre and the Mahayuti in the short term — or whether a split realignment will strengthen the BJP at the expense of a distinct NCP. Local power centres in Mumbai and Pune will be decisive in the coming weeks as party legislators and state leaders weigh options.


Presence of Ajit Pawar’s faction within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) played the role of a dependable NDA ally, lending numerical strength and political legitimacy without demanding a visible share in power. In Maharashtra, where coalition arithmetic remains delicate, the calculus has been far more strategic. BJP’s decision to induct Ajit Pawar into the Mahayuti alliance was widely viewed as an effort to balance Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and prevent any single ally from dominating the coalition. This triangulation has helped the BJP maintain leverage while ensuring the continuity of the state government.


Postponed Reunion

For months, there were strong indications that the two NCP factions—one led by Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP) and the other by Ajit Pawar—were exploring the possibility of reunification. Political analysts suggest that such a move was deliberately deferred, reportedly at the behest of the BJP, until after the local body elections. With the untimely demise of the prominent NCP leader, the political environment has shifted yet again. The emotional and organisational vacuum has revived discussions around reunification, succession, and long-term positioning of the party within Maharashtra’s power structure.


Scenario One: Merger and power-sharing within the NDA

Among political observers, the most discussed—and arguably most stable—scenario involves a merger of the two NCP factions followed by their formal accommodation within the NDA and the Mahayuti. In such an arrangement, senior NCP-SP leaders like Supriya Sule and Jayant Patil could take on roles at the Centre and in the Maharashtra government respectively.


This outcome would offer multiple advantages. For the BJP, it would consolidate numbers, reduce internal coalition friction, and neutralise the Pawar factor by integrating it rather than confronting it. For the NCP, reunification would restore organisational coherence and protect its identity while retaining access to power. For the state government, it would likely translate into greater stability, particularly as Maharashtra moves toward crucial electoral milestones.


Scenario Two: Sharad Pawar resists alignment with the BJP

The situation becomes considerably more complicated if Sharad Pawar chooses to remain outside the BJP-led arrangements. Such a decision would deepen the fault lines within the NCP. In this scenario, several legislators—MLAs, MLCs, and even MPs—from Ajit Pawar’s faction may opt to directly join the BJP to safeguard or enhance their political futures in both the state and at the Centre.


While this could strengthen the BJP numerically, it would come at the cost of hollowing out the NCP as an independent political force. At the same time, not all leaders from either faction may find direct absorption into the BJP politically or ideologically comfortable, particularly those with strong regional bases built under the NCP’s banner.


Scenario Three: A separate NCP within the NDA framework

If resistance to a merger with the BJP remains strong among elected representatives, a third option could emerge: the NCP continuing as a distinct entity within the NDA and Mahayuti. This arrangement would preserve the party’s separate identity while aligning it with the ruling coalition at both levels.


Such a model, however, would require careful power-sharing and constant negotiation, especially given the BJP’s dominant position. It would also test Sharad Pawar’s willingness to accept a reduced, non-central role within an alliance led firmly by the BJP.


Pawar Question

At the heart of all these scenarios lies Sharad Pawar himself. Should the party he founded insist on aligning closely with the BJP without a decisive leadership role for him, Pawar may choose to step away from active politics rather than operate as a subordinate partner.


An announcement of retirement, while symbolic, would mark the end of an era in Maharashtra politics and accelerate generational change within the NCP.


Road Ahead

For now, Maharashtra’s political future remains open-ended. The choices made by the Pawar family, the calculations of the BJP, and the aspirations of NCP legislators will together determine whether the state moves toward consolidation or further fragmentation.


What is clear is that every possible outcome carries implications not just for Maharashtra, but for the broader balance of power in national politics as well.

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