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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Symbol of political pride, power and pragmatism

Mumbai: Ajit Ashatai Anantrao Pawar - who straddled Maharashtra’s political landscape like a colossus for nearly 45 years - was snuffed out in a plane crash in Pune early on Wednesday, plunging his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) into precarity and the ruling Mahayuti government into turmoil.


The nephew of Nationalist Congress Party (SP) President Sharad Govindrao Pawar, Ajit Pawar was 66 and is survived by his wife Sunetra, an MP, and two sons, Parth and Jay. Parth, a wannabe politician, is a bachelor, while Jay married Rutuja Pravin Patil in December 2025.


Born with a ‘political silver spoon’ into the formidable Pawar family, Ajit Pawar’s political trajectory spanned Baramati’s village politics to the cooperative sector, and then to state - and briefly, national - roles. The crowning glory of his career was - being elected Deputy Chief Minister a record six times.


The ‘Pawar-ful’ surname raised towering expectations from Ajit Pawar, thanks largely to his 'Kaka', Sharad Pawar’s ascent as the state’s youngest Chief Minister at the age of 38 in 1978. Yet, Ajit Pawar had to struggle for years to carve an independent niche under Sharad Pawar’s ever-looming giant penumbra, finally emerging from the long eclipse in July 2023 following a vertical split in the NCP.


Humble Grassroots

Rising from humble grassroots political engagement, he quickly grasped the pulse of rural Maharashtra and the state’s political dynamics, especially during the era of coalition politics that has dominated the scene for over a quarter century.

Ajit Pawar concentrated his official power on initiatives ranging from roads, dams and irrigation networks to tough financial decisions. Aided by his brash bluntness style of functioning, a loafing officialdom sprang into action to avoid his dark scowls or wrath.


Over decades as an MLA (eight times), MP and in other key positions, Ajit Pawar mastered the art, science and mechanisms of governance - the movement of files, the working of departments, how decisions are translated into policy and finally implemented to reach the last man standing.


En route, his decisions courted multiple controversies and dubious charges, yet he dashed towards his destinations unperturbed. These included corruption allegations, big and small intra-party and external political confrontations, and his unabashed yet unfulfilled desire to become Chief Minister - all of which marked him as an all-weather survivor.


Iron Control

A retired official recalled his iron control over the bureaucracy, especially during his tenure handling the critical Finance portfolio of the country’s largest state economy. He focused sharply on rural road infrastructure, irrigation projects, water supply schemes, and extensive canal and dam networks.


These initiatives were coupled with strict fiscal discipline, firm budgeting and a ringmaster-style implementation - a tribute to his administrative acumen and efficiency. However, in recent years, he succumbed to realpolitik pressures that not only raised question marks but also catapulted the state’s debt burden to record highs, but he airily brushed aside all censure.

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