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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Exit that shocked the nation

Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, four others killed in plane crash; Probe begins into the reasons for the crash

Mumbai: Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and four other persons on board an aircraft were killed after it crashed near the Baramati airport in Pune district on Wednesday.


Pawar had taken off from Mumbai in the morning to address four rallies in the day in Pune district for the February 5 zilla parishad elections.


The others killed in the tragedy were Captain Sumit Kapoor, who had a flying experience of 15,000 hours, co-pilot Capt. Shambhavi Pathak with 1,500 hours of flying, Personal Security Officer (PSO) Vidip Jadhav and flight attendant Pinky Mali.


The government released a statement detailing the sequence of events that led to the crash and Pawar's death.


The aircraft, a Learjet, was cleared for landing in Baramati on Wednesday morning after a go-around due to poor visibility, but having finally received a clearance it did not give any read-back' to the ATC, and moments later burst into flames on the edge of the runway.


In aviation parlance, a go-around is a standard procedure where a pilot discontinues a landing attempt and initiates a climb to fly another approach. It is used when a landing cannot be completed safely due to factors like poor weather, an unstable approach, or traffic on the runway. It is a proactive safety measure rather than an emergency.


In aviation, a readback is a crucial safety procedure where a pilot repeats back the essential parts of a message or instruction received from Air Traffic Control (ATC). It acts as a "closed-loop" communication system, ensuring that the controller's instructions were heard and understood correctly by the flight crew.


The aircraft was trying to land amid poor visibility, Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu told reporters in Pune.


The statement by his ministry recounted the final minutes of the ill-fated Learjet 45 belonging to VSR Ventures Pvt Ltd that crashed, leading to the death of all five persons on board, including Pawar.


Fatal Flight

The ill-fated aircraft was a Bombardier Learjet 45, a twin-engine business jet commonly used for corporate and charter travel. Designed to carry between six and nine passengers, the Learjet 45 has a range of approximately 2,000 nautical miles and is powered by twin turbofan engines. The aircraft involved in the crash belonged to a charter operator and was being used for a non-scheduled private flight.According to preliminary information from aviation authorities and Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) sources, the aircraft encountered severe weather conditions while approaching Baramati. Dense fog enveloped the Pune–Baramati region at the time, drastically reducing visibility and complicating the landing procedure.


Probe Begins

A team from the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has reached the Baramati crash site to launch a forensic probe into the VSR Venture's Learjet 45 aircraft accident. "The investigation team has reached the (crash) site. They are on the work," the AAIB official told PTI.


The official, however, declined to share further details.


Earlier in the day, AAIB, which has the mandate to investigate all accidents and serious incidents/incidents involving aircraft with a gross weight of 2,250 kg or turbojet aircraft, was handed the probe into the crash.


The aircraft, bearing registration VT-SSK, was being operated by the Delhi-based non-scheduled operator VSR Ventures Pvt Ltd.


The crew was advised to descend in visual meteorological conditions at the pilot's discretion, the Civil Aviation Ministry said in its statement.


At that time, the winds were calm, and visibility was around 3,000 metres, it said.


Baramati airfield does not have an instrumental landing system - a precision radio navigation system that provides short-range guidance to an aircraft, allowing it to approach a runway at night, during bad weather and poor visibility.


  • Ajit Pawar's last rites will be held with full state honours on Thursday in Baramati. Union Home Minister Amit Shah is expected to attend the funeral, which will be held at Vidya Pratishthan ground at 11 am.


  • The Maharashtra government on Wednesday declared three days of state mourning across state till January 30 as a mark of respect to Ajit Pawar. The national flag will be flown at half-mast on all buildings where it is flown regularly. There will be no official entertainment during the mourning period.


“Ajit's death was a big shock for Maharashtra, which has lost a hardworking and efficient leader. This loss is irreparable. Not all things are in our hands. A stand was floated from Kolkata that there is some politics involved in this incident. But there is nothing like this. There is no politics in it. It was an accident. I request not to bring politics into it.”

Sharad Pawar, President, NCP (SP)

 

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