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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Chorus grows for Chakankar’s blood

Mumbai: A belligerent Opposition and women activists on Saturday intensified their demand for criminal action against NCP State Women’s Wing President Rupali Chakankar, urging that she be booked as a co-accused alongside self-styled godman ‘Captain’ Ashok Kharat.


Under fire, Chakankar resigned late Friday night as Chairperson of the Maharashtra State Commission for Women – enjoying a Minister of State rank - on the orders of Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. She submitted her papers to her party boss Deputy CM Sunetra A. Pawar, who forwarded it to the CM for further action today.


Leading the charge, Shiv Sena (UBT) President Uddhav Thackeray, his son Aaditya, Deputy Leader Sushama Andhare, ruling ally NCP leaders Rupali Patil-Thombare and Sangeeta Tiwari, and activist Anjali Damania led calls for a criminal probe, including an inquiry into Chakankar’s alleged assets.


They also sought to tie her with NCP State President Sunil Tatkare, accusing him of shielding her and blocking her resignation reportedly sought by then Deputy Chief Minister the late Ajit Pawar a few months ago in connection with another case.


The Thackeray father and son demanded an investigation into nine ministers from the ruling Mahayuti government whose names or photographs have surfaced in the so-called ‘Bhondu Baba’ scandal.


“Only those who have made some contributions in public life will keep away from such fraudulent babas. The fake devotees’ links with that baba must also be probed in this serious matter,” Uddhav said.


Huge Wealth

Andhare and Patil-Thombare alleged that, with the backing of certain politicians, Chakankar had purportedly amassed a fortune estimated at Rs 400–500 crore, and insisted that the source of this wealth be thoroughly investigated.


“Who is supporting her and why? What were her links with the Bhondu Baba? Why is she lying now when she was fully aware of Kharat’s activities for over a year?” Andhare asked.


Damania claimed that Chakankar had repeatedly received support from influential political figures who shielded her during previous controversies.


Providing further details, Patil-Thombare alleged that Chakankar travelled to Nashik every fortnight to meet Kharat, whom she has described as her spiritual mentor.


“Every woman has the personal liberty to decide where to go or whom to meet. But those holding constitutional office must uphold responsibility and dignity,” she said, reiterating the demand for a deeper probe.


Questioning Chakankar’s claim that she resigned for “personal reasons” following directions from Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Patil-Thombare asked what was “so personal” about the decision.


“Tell your husband (Nilesh Chakankar) to go and fall at the charlatan’s feet—no one will object. But Maharashtra will not tolerate someone in an august office indulging in such conduct,” she added.


SIT Probe

Meanwhile, the Special Investigation Team (SIT) has widened its probe to include individuals close to a Shiv Sena minister, with more persons likely to be questioned in the coming days. Kharat has been remanded to police custody until March 24.


Ashok Kharat, who headed a Sinnar-based temple trust, claimed to be an astrologer, and allegedly performed rituals for his followers. He was arrested by Nashik Police earlier this week after a woman accused him of raping her repeatedly over a period of two years by threatening her.


Chakankar: Will sue you all

A seemingly unrepentant Rupali Chakankar today reminded her critics that she still remains the state President of NCP Women’s Wing and would continue to work for women’s welfare, starting with a state tour soon.


Hitting out at her opponents, she threatened to initiate legal proceedings against them for hurling false and baseless allegations against her.


However, Sushama Andhare, Anjali Damania and Rupali Patil-Thombare dared Chakankar to take any action against them and vowed to continue exposing her.


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