The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

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While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Domestic Reckoning

Correspondent
Dec 21, 2025
2 min read

Indian cricket has rarely lacked confidence. Nor has it ever been short of money. What it has occasionally lacked, most recently and painfully at home, is humility. The Board of Control for Cricket in India’s (BCCI) decision to compel all centrally contracted players to turn up for at least two matches of the Vijay Hazare Trophy is an overdue admission that the country’s cricketing superstructure has grown detached from its foundations.

The immediate provocation for the move lay in India’s shocking defeats at home against first New Zealand, and most recently South Africa - losses that were unprecedented. For decades, India had turned home conditions into a near-insurmountable advantage as spinning tracks tamed visiting batsmen and victories at home were treated as a birthright rather than an achievement. That certitude has now evaporated. The defeats exposed a side no longer reliably dominant against spin, uncertain in defence, impatient in innings construction and disturbingly prone to collapse. Years of IPL and T20 cricket have eroded the techniques once honed through long domestic seasons.

As a result, the BCCI has now cracked the whip by sending its star players to Rajkot, Cuttack and Indore - to the unglamorous, sparsely televised arenas of the Vijay Hazare Trophy. Playing domestic cricket, the board has made clear, is no longer optional.

In the age of the T20 gold rush, the modern Indian cricketer is among the most handsomely compensated athletes in the world. The Indian Premier League has compressed an entire career’s earnings into two frenetic months. The risk, long warned of and now realised, is that the longer test formats begin to feel like a chore.

The Hazare mandate seeks to restore balance. One-day domestic cricket, played without cheerleaders or television auctions, forces batters to build innings and bowlers to work through spells. It demands patience, adaptability and resilience.

The symbolism matters too. By insisting that Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma turn up alongside Shubman Gill and Suryakumar Yadav, the BCCI has defused the perception that senior players are being singled out for ritual humiliation. Rules, in this instance, apply to everyone. That is healthy for a dressing room increasingly stratified by fame and franchise value.

None of this should be overstated. Two matches of domestic cricket will not, by themselves, repair technical flaws or arrest decline. Nor will they roll back the commercial logic of modern cricket. The T20 format is not going away. After all, it has broadened the game’s reach and underwritten its finances. But when it becomes the organising principle of a cricketing culture, the harmful consequences that hamstring real cricket – the long form – are predictable.

The Hazare directive is an acknowledgment that excellence must be reacquired the old-fashioned way: by playing for your state, on imperfect pitches, against hungry opponents, with little reward beyond professional pride.

For a board often accused of excess and indulgence, this is a rare act of restraint.

The Exit Poll Mirage

Domestic Reckoning

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