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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit-Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit-Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Dumping grounds

Updated: Dec 2, 2024

Dumping grounds

This seems to be a million dollar question. As we learnt from my last week’s article, open dumping of garbage has potential to spread diseases, potential to pollute air. Soil and water, occupies large space, can catch fire adding many obnoxious and toxic gases in already polluted surrounding air etc. Apart from these hazards, open garbage dumps also generate huge amount of methane. It is one of the “Greenhouse Gases” which are responsible for most pressing environmental problem of the 21 st century, i.e. ‘Global Warming’ and subsequent climate change.


In addition to all these issues and problems, open garbage dumps present very ugly sight so those are not acceptable. In short such a place loses its aesthetic appeal.


This can have adverse impact on the property that is in the vicinity. Property rates crash down causing financial losses to the concerned people. Now we can understand the NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) mentality of the people and why they oppose having an open dump in their vicinity. Sometime this opposition becomes so strong that literally there have been riots over this issue in the past. Two incidences are noteworthy. In 2018, villagers of Mandki, at the outskirts of Aurangabad city did not allow the Aurangabad Municipal Corporation to dump the garbage from the city in their area. Residents of Padegaon-Mitmita villages where the AMC tried to dump the garbage protested very strongly.


When the authorities did not budge, the villagers burnt two garbage carrying trucks. The situation went out of control and the police force was called to control the situation. Villagers didn’t budge either and then the police had to resort to Lathi charge. The villagers of Devachi Uruli-Phursungi within jurisdiction of Pune Municipal Corporation had to face lot of hardships and health issues because of the dumping ground where thousands of tons of garbage from the city was being dumped every day. So, the villagers came together and staged protest to stop dumping the garbage there. Their protest turned violent occasionally resulting in casualties at times.


Thane Municipal corporation is facing space crunch and is unable to find a suitable place for dumping the garbage. A makeshift dumping ground at Bhandarli village has to be closed due to protest by the villagers. A few acres of land have been earmarked at Daighar village near Shil Phata. But the locals do not want this to happen in their backyard. These are just few representative incidences. This is happening almost everywhere across India.


Ok! We have understood the problems associated with open dumping of the garbage. But then what? Is there any solution to this problem? Of course, there is not just one or two, but multiple solutions to overcome all these issues. Since the problems related to generation of garbage and subsequent disposal are created by us, the humans, it is our responsibility to work on the solutions to solve these problems. We will discuss the possible solutions and remedial measures we can take to solve these problems in the subsequent articles. Till then, have a good weekend!


(The author is an environmentalist. Views personal.)

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