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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Five Quiet Fractures That Distort Teams Before They Break

Most leadership damage is not caused by bad intent. It’s caused by unseen impact

Some leadership problems don’t show up as conflict. They show up as silence. Second-guessing.


Cautious execution. People “playing safe” instead of thinking. A team that looks functional… but feels emotionally tired. That’s what this series was really about.


After The People Paradox (Series 7) explored the founder’s view of a team that stops behaving like a family, The Boss Paradox flipped the lens. Same world. Same tension. Different mirror.


We returned to The Workshop — our composite, mid-sized firm — not because it’s unique, but because it’s painfully normal. What happens there happens in startups, family businesses, corporate units, and professional services teams everywhere. And across five parts, one idea kept repeating in different forms: Bosses think they’re leading a system. Teams experience a psychology.


The Communication Gap

This is where most drift begins. Leaders speak in narratives: vision, mission, strategy, direction.


Teams hear consequences: deadlines, expectations, risk, evaluation. So a town hall feels like alignment to the leader… and like ambiguity to the team. People clap, nod, and then walk back to their desks carrying five different interpretations of the same message.


The cost is not confusion. It’s interpretation work - employees spending cognitive energy decoding what the boss “really meant” instead of building what the company actually needs.


The Power Paradox

This is where trust starts getting political. Most bosses believe they reward merit.


Most teams experience favoritism. Not always because leaders are biased — but because criteria often stay invisible. Access, trust, forgiveness, and “being in the room” become signals of value. The team begins to optimise for proximity rather than performance.


The damage is quiet but brutal: people stop competing on excellence and start competing on closeness. The system begins to reward those who are easiest to trust… not always those who are best for the job.


The Pace & Pressure Paradox

This is where urgency becomes culture. A founder’s natural speed is often their superpower.


But inside a team, that speed becomes emotional weather. The boss moves fast. Decides fast. Switches directions fast. The team doesn’t read it as energy — they read it as evaluation. Soon, people stop asking questions. Initiative collapses. Planning becomes reactive. Creativity gets shallow. Execution becomes obedient. The company becomes good at reacting and bad at thinking.


And the founder is often the last person to realise it — because urgency feels productive when you’re the one generating it.


The Boundary Collapse

This is where kindness becomes control. Modern micromanagement rarely looks like shouting.


It looks like: “Just loop me in.” Or: “Stay reachable.” Or: “I’ll quickly tweak it.”


Leaders think they’re being supportive. Teams feel autonomy shrinking. A leave day becomes a soft obligation. A delegated task becomes a conditional trust. A decision becomes temporary until the boss’s instinct kicks in.


And the real cost is not workload. It’s vigilance - employees staying mentally “on” because boundaries feel unstable. Micromanagement today rarely looks like anger.


It looks like kindness without limits.


The System Distortion

This is where organisations drift away from the org chart. Every company has two structures: the formal hierarchy and the invisible influence map. Loyalty, competence, charisma, proximity, and external advisors quietly bend decisions. Unofficial voices start overriding official roles. The team begins to ask: “Who are we really taking direction from?” System distortion is dangerous because it is polite, deniable, and cumulative. It doesn’t create dramatic breakdowns — it creates misalignment, inconsistency, and navigational anxiety. Teams don’t follow the org chart. They follow influence.


Across these five paradoxes, one truth emerges: Most leadership damage is not caused by bad intent. It’s caused by unseen impact. Bosses often mean well. Teams are often capable. But scaling amplifies small distortions into cultural truths.


A phrase becomes a norm. A preference becomes politics. A pace becomes pressure. A helpful override becomes fear. An informal voice becomes governance. And suddenly, the business isn’t breaking — it’s bending.


(The writers are Co-founders at PPS Consulting. They write about the human mechanics of scaling where leadership behavior, team psychology, and operating systems collide. Views personal.)

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