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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Freebies, infiltration to dominate discourse

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee holds a child on the occassion of Eid al-Fitr in Kolkata on Saturday.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee holds a child on the occassion of Eid al-Fitr in Kolkata on Saturday.

New Delhi: In the West Bengal assembly elections, issues of illegal infiltration and freebies are set to dominate the discourse. The BJP is weaving its strategy around infiltration, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has countered by branding the 'Special Intensive Revision' (SIR) as the first phase of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). In this race, the TMC has been liberal in announcing free facilities, dubbed by many as ‘freebies’.


The BJP is not backing down either. Drawing from its Delhi playbook of cash-aid promises to topple the incumbent, the party is looking to loosen the TMC’s hold on power. This, despite the Supreme Court of India’s recent warning that freebies are hurdles to economic growth. The top court has urged a shift towards job creation and development.


On February 19, 2026, the Supreme Court voiced profound concern over freebies during a hearing on a Tamil Nadu electricity company case. A bench presided over by Chief Justice Surya Kant sharply remarked that freebies will stall the nation's economic progress. While states are to provide facilities for those unable to afford education or basic sustenance, freebies are primarily finding their way into the pockets of those who are already living comfortably. The court further noted that several states are burdened by heavy debt and deficits, yet continue to shower free schemes upon the public. The court opined that the focus should be on job creation and economic growth. Ultimately, the economic burden of these 'freebies' falls squarely upon the taxpayers.

Financial Aid

The politics of freebies has once again compelled the common citizen to introspect. Releasing the election manifesto, TMC chief and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee promised monthly financial aid for women upon her government's re-election: Rs 1,500 per month (Rs 18,000 annually) for general category women, and Rs 1,700 monthly (Rs 20,400 yearly) for those from Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Extending the 'Banglar Yuba-Sathi' scheme, she also pledged Rs 1,500 monthly (Rs 18,000 annually) to unemployed youth.


At the time of the last assembly elections in Delhi, political parties showered voters with grand promises to win their favour. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) pledged to deposit Rs 2,100 monthly into women's accounts upon gaining power, while Congress promised unemployed youth Rs 8,500 monthly along with LPG cylinders at Rs 500. The BJP tightened its strategy in response, declaring Rs 2,500 monthly aid for women, two free cylinders annually on Holi and Diwali, and Rs 21,000 cash assistance for pregnant women. Ultimately, the BJP's electoral gambit paid off as it formed the government in Delhi.


In West Bengal, illegal infiltration and the SIR–NRC issue are fuelling the contest alongside freebies. Mamata Banerjee has targeted the Modi government, alleging deliberate targeting of a specific community through the SIR process, where nearly 60 lakh cases are under scrutiny, 22 lakh have been resolved, and 10 lakh names have already been deleted.


Without resorting to the word 'infiltrator', Banerjee warned that the centre would strip citizenship under the pretext of the NRC and census after the Bengal polls. Asserting that delimitation would take place after the elections, she said the BJP would not return to power, as these issues would alienate the public from the BJP. Capitalising on this, Mamata Banerjee has attempted to mobilise a particular community.


"We will not allow (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi ji to take away your voting rights. We will fight till the end to protect democracy and the rights of every citizen," Banerjee said as she addressed a crowd of thousands at Red Road on Saturday after Eid prayers.


"Bengal believes in unity. Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians - everyone lives together here. We will not allow anyone to break this social fabric," she said.


BJP’s Moves

On the other side, the BJP has already made its opening move on the electoral chessboard with the infiltration issue. On February 26, Union Home Minister Amit Shah visited Bihar's Seemanchal, Purnea, Araria, and Kishanganj, announcing during a three-day meeting a decisive step: all illegal encroachments within 10 kilometres of India's borders were to be removed. This is being hailed as a firm counter to demographic shifts in border districts, particularly Seemanchal.


The Home Ministry's campaign is heating up the West Bengal electoral arena too, given the state's extensive share of the India–Bangladesh border. From the 1971 war to today, official and parliamentary debates have highlighted this frontier as one having a severe problem of infiltration. Reports say that about 5.7 million illegal migrants have entrenched themselves here after obtaining valid documents fraudulently.


The BJP is in a mood to make the issue the central plank of its election campaign. Amit Shah has repeatedly accused the Mamata government, saying that while the centre is actively engaged in fencing the Bangladesh border, the work is being hindered because of the Mamata administration’s failure to make the necessary land available at the frontier.


In essence, the BJP is blaming the Mamata government squarely for cross-border infiltration.


The TMC manifesto and the BJP's campaign signal that freebies and infiltration will overshadow all other issues in the West Bengal elections. Both are profoundly sensitive matters: demographic shifts from infiltration imperil a nation's culture, history, and geography alike. Indian history stands as a living witness to the fact that such changes, unfolding over centuries, compelled the nation to endure the bitter agony of partition at the time of independence. On the flip side, the Supreme Court's scrutiny of freebies carries urgent consideration. All political parties, sociologists, and intellectuals dedicated to national development should engage in public discussion as to how long this race for freebies and special concessions will go on.

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