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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

India’s Toxic Work Culture: A Silent Mental Health Crisis

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

India’s Toxic Work Culture: A Silent Mental Health Crisis

In the middle of a particularly busy workday, earlier this week, a friend sent me a WhatsApp forward which I grudgingly opened. It was a news report announcing that a 26-year-old chartered accountant working with a leading consultancy firm in India had died. Her mother accused the organisation of “stress” over the past six months that could have led to her daughter’s death. Can mental stress cause death? I am not sure. But then, I do not have the medical credentials to attest or dispute that claim. What I am convinced about is that prolonged stress can—and does—lead to various ailments and as we know by now, most diseases originate in the mind!

I have seen the impact of ‘toxic workplaces’ on my colleagues in a different organization: a young lifestyle writer developed stomach ulcers after suffering ‘intense mental stress’ for three years at the hands of a very difficult, demanding and nasty boss. A young photographer had a mental breakdown after having a raise pulse rate each morning as she walked in through the office door and into the newsroom. What did they do? Complaints to the management were brushed aside because the question was “how could long stressful hours lead to hospital visits?”

Work pressures have, indeed, increased over the years with greater competition to keep the top job, or rather, the job you have in hand. It is only in recent years that people have started recognising the impact of workplace stress on mental health.

There are studies that corroborate this. And conversations revolving around mental health are more open and prevalent. A survey done by Deloitte this year revealed that a staggering 80 per cent of the Indian workforce reported experienced mental health issues in the past year. Another study by the National Sample Survey Office found that over 60 percent of Indian employees grapple with stress at work. The World Health Organization’s data shows how pervasive the concern is - it says that nearly one in four employees in India suffer from work-related stress.

The notorious ‘burnout’ is happening much sooner. High achieving professionals in their early 30s grapple with exhaustion and fatigue. The nature of the stress differs across geographic and demographic variations. If corporate offices exert pressure to meet deadlines, job insecurity is a factor in low paying, less skilled jobs. No matter what you do, you cannot escape stress if you work in India.

On a visit to Vienna a few years ago, I was fascinated by their 35-hours-per-week work rules. At 6 p.m., it was common to see people sauntering into cafes with their dogs to have coffee with friends; the parks were bustling at 5 p.m. And these were not retired seniors, they were all working professionals who knew when to cut off from work. India does not appreciate a work-life balance. Long hours at the desk have been glorified and hailed as ‘professionalism.’ Working weekends add to the scores during appraisals and going incommunicado post work for a family dinner or movie is a mark of ‘not being serious enough.’

This cultural shift began two decades ago, as multinationals brought with them an American work culture of rushed breakfasts, heart-pounding deadlines and the belief that longer hours equal greater achievement and therefore, fatter paychecks. What has been overlooked is that a burnt-out workforce cannot deliver results.

India’s burgeoning population means there are several contenders for the same skilled jobs leading to cut throat competition at various levels of the workforce. People in ‘private companies’—or non-government organisations—are dispensable. A hospitalised employee can very well find his job changing hands; a new mother raises her infant while worrying about keeping her job.

Round-the-clock connectivity comes at a huge personal and mental health price. Late night discussions on WhatsApp chats and dreaded emails at 4 A.M. disrupt sleep and peace. The pandemic and the work from home culture it started also has its share of blame. A senior manager at an OTT major complained that there is no cut off time when he works from home. Mornings and nights are the same as mid-day. Mental health experts tell you that disconnecting and focussing on other activities helps the mind de-stress.

Rising stress, often silent and unspoken, is a looming crisis. Few seek help, assuming it is temporary, but the toll on health, families, relationships, and productivity is severe.

Organisations lose work hours to absence caused by mental ill-health; productivity suffers even if the employee is physically at-work. Family and social relationships are taking a downturn and personal mental health is the biggest sufferer.

The change lies in new policies. In 2019, Member of Parliament Supriya Sule introduced a Private Members’ Bill called the ‘Right to Disconnect’ under which employees can refuse work outside of reasonable work hours. Australia offers employees protection from professional exploitation through a similar law where people can refuse to work outside their stipulated hours.

India Inc. is gradually waking up to the new demands for mental healthcare with counselling sessions, wellness care leave, childcare facilities and flexible work arrangements. But the implementation should be in spirit and not only on paper. Government policies such as the right to disconnect will further boost people’s ability to refuse after-hours work. Mental healthcare should not remain just lip service or a one-off human care initiative. Workplaces should be turned into safe havens, both, physically and mentally.

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