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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Jai Maharashtra!

Mumbai bids adieu to Uddhav’s 25-year rule


‘Thackeray Brand’ replaced with ‘Fiery Fadnavis’


 

Mumbai: The bitterly fought Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election results were on anticipated and decisive lines – with sobering lessons for all the players.

 

The Shiv Sena (UBT) led by ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is poised to meekly hand over the keys to the country’s richest civic body – over which it lorded for three decades - to the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine.

 

The impending disaster loomed for days, the series of exit polls and sentiments of bookies – more than Rs One Lakh-Crore was pledged on the Mahayuti victory – plus, confident body-language of the Mahayuti leaders, that damned the fragmented Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi.

 

A leering BJP, which gunned for the ‘Thackeray brand’, is partly vindicated, considering SS (UBT)’s performance. The break-up of Shiv Sena engineered through Eknath Shinde in June 2022 paid rich dividends later, pushing Uddhav Thackeray out of power in the Assembly and now, even the BMC.

 

Deserting the BJP in October 2019 to later ally with Congress-Nationalist Congress Party as the MVA, Uddhav’s stars shone bright when he became the ‘reluctant CM’, flew high with his work during the Covid-19 Pandemic years, and even hinted for a ‘national role’ - till an eclipse on his regime suddenly started from Thane.

 

A betrayed Uddhav immediately threw away the trappings of power and promptly vacated ‘Varsha’ (CM official residence), as emotional supporters lined the route to ‘Matoshri’ (his private home), mourning the ‘death’ of the 30-month-old administration.

 

The MVA government fell, but the alliance grew in stature by humbling the BJP-NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Owing to various factors, again the tide turned in the Assembly elections that year when the MVA was virtually erased by the BJP-led Mahayuti triumvirate.

 

For the past year, hectic preparations were on by all parties for the series of civic elections across the state – touted as a ‘mini-referendum’. The BJP, armed with the divided Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party factions on its side, prepared for its final assault on the daunting ‘Thackeray brand’.

 

Genesis Of Nemesis

Brushing aside concerns and allies, Uddhav hurriedly patched up with his cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena President Raj Thackeray, to grapple with the Mahayuti on his home-ground, Mumbai, where the Shiv Sena was founded by Balasaheb Thackeray.

 

A cocky Uddhav insisted on including MNS into the MVA, but the Congress stoutly refused and even parted ways to ally with Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) of Prakash Ambedkar.

 

Several SS (UBT) bigwigs confided to The Perfect Voice how they had warned Uddhav on the MNS tie-up and its potential detrimental effects he airily shooed them off.

 

The partnership left the minorities, particularly Muslims who bore the brunt of Raj Thackeray’s mosque loudspeakers offensive, and large sections of non-Marathis in Mumbai – like UP-Biharis, Gujaratis, Marwaris – for the compulsion of speaking Marathi or shopkeepers must display Marathi signboards.

 

Though the final polls data will emerge over the coming days, Uddhav may have lost quite a chunk of crucial votes from the non-Marathis and minorities, who had accepted him as an unlikely ‘messiah’, till the Raj partnership was born.

 

Lessons For All

The BMC results indicate that the SS (UBT) notched a respectable defeat, the MNS proved an embarrassment and beneficiary, the Congress performed on expected lines, and Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde is bereft of the much-coveted ‘Balasaheb Thackeray legacy’.

 

The SS (UBT) has catapulted as the second-largest party in the BMC, Shinde’s party - facing a gradual decline – stands third; the BJP is the single-largest party but way short of the magical 114-midway mark in the 227-member BMC house.

 

“Akin to 2019 and 2022, political jugglery of the weird kind is not ruled out. If, by some quirk of fate, the SS (UBT), Congress and Shiv Sena were to join forces, they can keep the BJP’s hands off the BMC…!” said a Congress leader.

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