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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Jai Maharashtra!

Mumbai bids adieu to Uddhav’s 25-year rule


‘Thackeray Brand’ replaced with ‘Fiery Fadnavis’


 

Mumbai: The bitterly fought Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election results were on anticipated and decisive lines – with sobering lessons for all the players.

 

The Shiv Sena (UBT) led by ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is poised to meekly hand over the keys to the country’s richest civic body – over which it lorded for three decades - to the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine.

 

The impending disaster loomed for days, the series of exit polls and sentiments of bookies – more than Rs One Lakh-Crore was pledged on the Mahayuti victory – plus, confident body-language of the Mahayuti leaders, that damned the fragmented Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi.

 

A leering BJP, which gunned for the ‘Thackeray brand’, is partly vindicated, considering SS (UBT)’s performance. The break-up of Shiv Sena engineered through Eknath Shinde in June 2022 paid rich dividends later, pushing Uddhav Thackeray out of power in the Assembly and now, even the BMC.

 

Deserting the BJP in October 2019 to later ally with Congress-Nationalist Congress Party as the MVA, Uddhav’s stars shone bright when he became the ‘reluctant CM’, flew high with his work during the Covid-19 Pandemic years, and even hinted for a ‘national role’ - till an eclipse on his regime suddenly started from Thane.

 

A betrayed Uddhav immediately threw away the trappings of power and promptly vacated ‘Varsha’ (CM official residence), as emotional supporters lined the route to ‘Matoshri’ (his private home), mourning the ‘death’ of the 30-month-old administration.

 

The MVA government fell, but the alliance grew in stature by humbling the BJP-NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Owing to various factors, again the tide turned in the Assembly elections that year when the MVA was virtually erased by the BJP-led Mahayuti triumvirate.

 

For the past year, hectic preparations were on by all parties for the series of civic elections across the state – touted as a ‘mini-referendum’. The BJP, armed with the divided Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party factions on its side, prepared for its final assault on the daunting ‘Thackeray brand’.

 

Genesis Of Nemesis

Brushing aside concerns and allies, Uddhav hurriedly patched up with his cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena President Raj Thackeray, to grapple with the Mahayuti on his home-ground, Mumbai, where the Shiv Sena was founded by Balasaheb Thackeray.

 

A cocky Uddhav insisted on including MNS into the MVA, but the Congress stoutly refused and even parted ways to ally with Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) of Prakash Ambedkar.

 

Several SS (UBT) bigwigs confided to The Perfect Voice how they had warned Uddhav on the MNS tie-up and its potential detrimental effects he airily shooed them off.

 

The partnership left the minorities, particularly Muslims who bore the brunt of Raj Thackeray’s mosque loudspeakers offensive, and large sections of non-Marathis in Mumbai – like UP-Biharis, Gujaratis, Marwaris – for the compulsion of speaking Marathi or shopkeepers must display Marathi signboards.

 

Though the final polls data will emerge over the coming days, Uddhav may have lost quite a chunk of crucial votes from the non-Marathis and minorities, who had accepted him as an unlikely ‘messiah’, till the Raj partnership was born.

 

Lessons For All

The BMC results indicate that the SS (UBT) notched a respectable defeat, the MNS proved an embarrassment and beneficiary, the Congress performed on expected lines, and Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde is bereft of the much-coveted ‘Balasaheb Thackeray legacy’.

 

The SS (UBT) has catapulted as the second-largest party in the BMC, Shinde’s party - facing a gradual decline – stands third; the BJP is the single-largest party but way short of the magical 114-midway mark in the 227-member BMC house.

 

“Akin to 2019 and 2022, political jugglery of the weird kind is not ruled out. If, by some quirk of fate, the SS (UBT), Congress and Shiv Sena were to join forces, they can keep the BJP’s hands off the BMC…!” said a Congress leader.

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