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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Rs. One-lakh-crore at stake

Bookies bet big on BJP in BMC polls

Mumbai: As the campaign curtains fell today for the high-stakes Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections scheduled on January 15, the underground bookie market threw up startling projections, hinting at a decisive verdict in India’s richest civic body on Friday.

 

According to illegal betting syndicates, wagers on the BMC polls have already crossed an eye-popping Rs.1 lakh crore, underscoring the intense interest of political operators, contractors and power brokers eager to capture control of the 227-ward civic giant.

 

With an annual budget of Rs. 74,000 crore, the BMC election has turned into far more than a routine municipal contest - it is a battle for political and financial supremacy in Maharashtra.

 

 

Advantage Mahayuti

Bookmakers say the ruling Mahayuti alliance appears firmly in the driver’s seat, with trends mirroring its strong performance in the November 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is tipped to emerge as the single largest party, bagging between 95 and 100 wards.

 

Its ally, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, is projected to secure 45-50 wards, while the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) may have to settle for a modest 5-7 wards. Together, the Mahayuti is expected to comfortably leap through the majority mark of 114 wards needed to control the BMC.

 

 

MVA luckless?

On the opposition side, bookies paint a sad and sorry picture. Shiv Sena (UBT), which once lorded over BMC for nearly three decades, may get deflated with only 20-25 wards, sharply undercutting its own expectations. After a two-decade separation, Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is predicted to make modest gains in 7-9 wards.

 

However, politics remains unpredictable. The recent high-decibel speeches by Raj Thackeray and his nephew Aditya Thackeray at Shivaji Park - especially their aggressive attack on the Adani Group – ignited widespread debate and could arouse sections of lower-middle-class and Marathi voters.

  

Congress-VBA confusion

Following its exit from the MVA in October, the Congress tied up with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), but the alliance faces hurdles, claim bookies.

 

At best, the Congress-VBA could capture around 25-27 wards - a move many within political circles believe could erode the opposition’s collective ability to challenge Mahayuti.

 

Despite the multi-cornered nature of the contest and multiple parties espousing similar civic promises, bookmakers remain upbeat that the Mahayuti is stomping to a near-sweep, tightening its lasso over the country's financial centre.

 

 


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