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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Lokyogi – The Saga of a Mass Leader

The journey of a leader who measured success not by personal gain, but by service to the people.


In Lokyogi, Shivajirao Patil Kavhekar offers not just a chronicle of his life, but a rich, deeply personal narrative of the transformation of a village, a region, and ultimately, a man who rose from the soil of rural Maharashtra to shape political, social, and agricultural change with unwavering dedication.


Born on July 11, 1954, in the small village of Kavha in Latur tehsil, Kavhekar’s early life was rooted in simplicity and service. Raised in a farming family with strong ties to the Arya Samaj movement and a legacy of leadership, his father was a respected Police Patil and a prominent landlord. Kavhekar imbibed the values of duty, discipline, and social reform from an early age. These formative influences are vividly recalled in his autobiography, as he brings alive memories from both his maternal and paternal ancestral homes, sketching the intellectual and moral foundation of his life’s journey.


From a young student with a passion for education and community improvement to a fiery reformist in college movements and eventually a towering political figure, Kavhekar's life reads like a blueprint for grassroots leadership. His rise from sarpanch to chairperson of the Latur Agricultural Market Committee, and ultimately to Member of the Legislative Assembly, defeating Vilasrao Deshmukh in the 1995 elections, was no mere accident of fate. It was the result of decades of relentless effort, political astuteness, and a fierce will to serve.


Kavhekar’s narrative is not one of privilege, but of grit. The struggles he faced, the resistance he encountered, and the systemic injustice he sought to challenge are laid bare in this autobiography with admirable honesty. Whether addressing the exploitation of farmers in market committees or championing the cause of mathadi workers and women labourers, his voice consistently rises for the voiceless.


His work in education, especially the establishment of the JSPM educational trust and creation of 40 branches across the region, helped build what came to be known as the ‘Latur Pattern’, a model of academic excellence in rural Maharashtra. Through initiatives like the Maharashtra Nagari Sahakari Bank, Kavhekar also focused on the financial empowerment of marginalised communities, particularly women and economically backward groups.


But what truly sets Lokyogi apart is not just the catalogue of accomplishments; it’s the soul behind them. The book brings us face to face with a man who saw leadership not as a ladder to personal gain but as a platform for public welfare. Whether engaging in youth politics, serving as vice president of the BJP’s Kisan Morcha, or leading agitations for the development of Marathwada, Kavhekar never lost sight of his core mission: upliftment through unity.


His political life, spanning affiliations with the Congress, Janata Dal, NCP, and BJP, is a testament to his ideological adaptability without compromising his moral compass. He worked with stalwarts like Sharad Pawar, Rajiv Gandhi, Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, and Vilasrao Deshmukh, each encounter enriching his political persona. One particularly telling episode involves the word “mamuli” used in an assembly election campaign, which Kavhekar uses to illustrate the power of language in shaping political outcomes.


In 1995, after being denied an assembly ticket by the Congress party, Shivajirao Patil Kavhekar contested the election as a Janata Dal candidate against the formidable Vilasrao Deshmukh and emerged victorious, securing an impressive 107,000 votes.


Visually evocative, emotionally resonant, and written in a fluid, compelling style, Lokyogi is as much a personal memoir as it is a historical account of rural Maharashtra’s transformation. His stories of village transformation, turning a violence-prone Kavha into a smart village, and his championing of farmer rights, market reforms, and education, show how vision and perseverance can indeed change the world, one decision at a time.


The title Lokyogi, meaning ‘a sage among the people’, is apt and symbolic. Kavhekar is not portrayed as a distant, exalted figure, but as a leader deeply embedded in the lives of the common people. His saga is not merely one of success but of meaningful service.


This autobiography is not just a book; it is a movement in print. A legacy to inspire future generations of political leaders, social reformers, and everyday citizens who dare to believe that leadership, at its best, is a sacred duty to serve.


(The writer is a journalist based in Latur. Views personal.)

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