Mahayuti poised for Rajya Sabha sweep
- Abhijit Mulye

- 27 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Spotlight turns to Sharad Pawar’s next move

Mumbai: With the dust barely settling on the recent political upheavals in Maharashtra, the state is bracing for yet another high-stakes battle. Seven seats from Maharashtra in the Rajya Sabha are set to fall vacant on April 2, triggering an election that will be decided not by popular vote, but by the ruthless arithmetic of the State Assembly.
For the ruling Mahayuti alliance, the numbers promise a near-clean sweep. For the battered Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), it is a battle for survival. But the overarching narrative centers on one man - Sharad Pawar. As his own term draws to a close, the patriarch faces a defining choice that could shape the future of the opposition in the state.
The seven seats going to polls are currently held by four parties. The Bharatiya Janata Party has two members, Dhairyashil Mohan Patil and Bhagwat Karad, and one seat allotted from its quota to Republican Party of India leader Ramdas Athawale. The Sharad Pawar led NCP SP holds two seats through Pawar and Fauzia Khan. The Congress is represented by Rajani Ashokrao Patil, while the Shiv Sena UBT has Priyanka Chaturvedi.
Maharashtra currently has 19 Rajya Sabha members. Of these, the BJP has seven, the Congress and NCP have three each, the NCP SP and Shiv Sena UBT have two each, the Shiv Sena has one, and the Republican Party of India has one.
Arithmetic of dominance
The electoral math is starkly tilted in favor of the ruling coalition. The Mahayuti—comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and the NCP faction now rallying behind Deputy CM Sunetra Pawar—commands a formidable strength of 228 MLAs in the legislative assembly.
In the complex preferential voting system of the Rajya Sabha, this number is a fortress.
To win a single Rajya Sabha seat, a candidate requires roughly 36 to 37 first-preference votes (depending on the exact number of sitting MLAs).
With 228 votes, the Mahayuti can comfortably elect six candidates (approx. 222 votes needed) with votes to spare.
"The BJP and its allies have the luxury of numbers," notes a legislative expert. "Unless there is cross-voting of a magnitude we haven't seen before, six seats are a foregone conclusion for the government."
In stark contrast, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) finds itself cornered. The combined strength of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) stands at a mere 46 MLAs.
This number is sufficient to secure only one seat safely.
This solitary seat presents a strategic headache for the alliance. With three parties vying for relevance, deciding who gets to send a candidate to the Upper House will be a test of their fragile unity. Any internal discord or cross-voting could jeopardize even this single win, potentially handing a seventh bonus seat to the Mahayuti if they choose to field an extra candidate to force a contest.
The Pawar Conundrum
The most significant vacancy on April 2 is that of Sharad Pawar himself.
Prior to recent events, the veteran leader had signaled his intention to step back from electoral politics, hinting at making way for a new generation. However, the sudden and tragic death of Ajit Pawar has fundamentally altered the landscape.
The tragedy has left the NCP (SP) vulnerable and in need of an anchor. Political analysts argue that Pawar’s "retirement" is a luxury the opposition can no longer afford.
He is seen as a stabilizing force for the opposition. His presence in the Rajya Sabha ensures the opposition retains a powerful voice in New Delhi.
If Sharad Pawar chooses to contest, it serves as a rallying cry for the dispirited cadres of the MVA.
Also, with Ajit Pawar gone and the other faction firmly with the BJP, Sharad Pawar remains the only glue holding his faction together. Stepping away now could accelerate the disintegration of his party.
“The script has changed,” said a senior NCP (SP) leader on condition of anonymity. “Saheb had planned to retire, but the party is in crisis. We are urging him to file the nomination. We need a general on the field, not in the mentoring room.”
Test for Sunetra Pawar
While the focus is on the opposition, the election is also a subtle test for the new Deputy Chief Minister, Sunetra Pawar. Delivering the votes of the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) seamlessly to the Mahayuti candidates will be her first major legislative assignment. Following Sunil Tatkare’s defiant rejection of a merger, a disciplined voting performance by her MLAs will validate her control over the party apparatus and silence skeptics who doubt her hold on the legislative unit.





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