Mumbai Stakes

After nearly three years of institutional drift, Maharashtra’s civic democracy has been roused from suspension. The State Election Commission’s announcement of polling dates for long-overdue local body elections set for January 15, with results the following day ends a hiatus that began in 2022. The election to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is less a routine municipal contest than a referendum on Maharashtra’s political future.

No municipal institution elsewhere in Asia commands such resources. The BMC’s projected budget for 2025–26 at Rs. 74,427 crore dwarfs that of any other civic body in India. Control of the BMC is therefore about patronage, policy leverage and the power to shape India’s financial capital. Winning Mumbai confers an advantage that echoes far beyond its ward boundaries.

Sensing this, the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti has chosen unity over grievance. After months of acrimony, the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP have agreed to fight the BMC together. Coordination committees have been formed; past allegations of poaching and sabotage have been quietly shelved. For the BJP, this election is unfinished business. In 2017 it fell just short, winning 82 of 227 seats - two fewer than the then-undivided Shiv Sena - despite contesting alone. Since then, the party’s organisational reach in Maharashtra has grown, and alliance arithmetic now looks kinder. The price of unity has been accommodation as Shinde’s Sena has staked claim to 90–100 seats, forcing the BJP to temper its ambitions in exchange for a plausible path to power.

The Opposition’s story is messier. The most intriguing subplot is the thaw between the Thackeray cousins. Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, once locked in bitter rivalry, now appear united by fear of extinction. For Uddhav, the BMC may be the last credible platform from which to reclaim relevance after the 2022 party split. For Raj, the election is framed as a defence of Marathi identity against both national parties and migrant politics. Sentiment, nostalgia and linguistic pride are being marshalled in tandem.

Yet, this rapprochement threatens to fracture the broader Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The Congress has drawn a red line, warning it will go solo if the MNS is formally inducted. The Congress is understandably anxious that Raj Thackeray’s strident politics could alienate minorities, Dalits and north Indian voters who form a crucial part of the Congress base in Mumbai. A solo Congress run, however, risks splintering the anti-BJP vote. Data from the 2024 assembly elections suggest that without MNS support, the opposition may struggle to reach the BMC’s majority mark of 114 seats, inadvertently smoothing the Mahayuti’s path.

Sharad Pawar, the MVA’s veteran balancer, reportedly favours keeping the coalition intact even if that means embracing the MNS. Whether such alchemy is possible remains unclear. What is certain is that after three years of democratic suspension, the BMC election will test alliances and settle past scores.