top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the...

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the cost of an emboldened ally demanding a bigger slice of the pie in both the Union and state cabinets. In a masterstroke of political engineering that has profoundly jolted political landscape, Shinde has once again demonstrated his formidable capacity for disruption. The rebellion of six out of nine Lok Sabha Members of Parliament from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), ostensibly joining Shinde’s ranks under the banner of “Operation Tiger,” is not merely a regional skirmish. It is a calculated power play that reverberates through the highest corridors of power in New Delhi. By nearly doubling his party’s strength in the lower house from seven to thirteen MPs, Shinde has dramatically altered his own political trajectory, elevating his faction from a helpful regional ally to an indispensable pillar of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Shinde’s Stature The immediate consequence of this crossover is a massive surge in Shinde’s stature within the NDA hierarchy. With thirteen parliamentarians, his Shiv Sena is now poised to become the fourth-largest bloc in the ruling national coalition, sitting just behind the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Telugu Desam Party, and the newly formed Nationalist Citizens Party of India. This numerical leap is of immense strategic value to the BJP-led central government. In a parliamentary environment where the ruling coalition possesses only a modest majority, every single seat counts. The central leadership is acutely aware of upcoming legislative hurdles, particularly ambitious constitutional amendments like the proposed delimitation bill, which will require a formidable two-thirds majority. By acting as the architect of this crucial numerical boost, Shinde has cemented his reputation as a reliable and highly effective operator for the NDA, significantly increasing his bargaining power and political leverage. National Relief For the BJP, this development evokes a complex mixture of profound national relief and acute regional anxiety. From the vantage point of PM Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Shinde’s successful poaching operation is a clear windfall. It simultaneously fortifies the NDA’s numerical strength in New Delhi while severely crippling a vocal opposition force in Maharashtra. The central BJP leadership views Shinde as a vital asset capable of bridging the gap between their current numbers and the overwhelming mandates of the past. However, the perspective from the Maharashtra BJP headquarters is noticeably more apprehensive. State BJP leaders openly acknowledge Shinde’s soaring political equity, but they are increasingly wary of his expanding ambitions. They recognize that an emboldened Shinde, eager to fill the political vacuum left by Uddhav Thackeray and a fragmented Nationalist Congress Party, will aggressively attempt to expand his footprint across the state, potentially encroaching upon the BJP’s own traditional support bases. Power Sharing This dramatically enhanced political heft immediately raises pressing questions regarding power-sharing arrangements, both at the Centre and in the state. Armed with thirteen MPs, Shinde’s camp is undoubtedly preparing to seek greater political rewards. In the Union Cabinet, his demand for an additional, high-profile ministerial berth is now backed by solid arithmetic. Given his heightened utility to the national coalition, the BJP high command is highly likely to accommodate this request during the next cabinet reshuffle. However, the power struggle within the Maharashtra state cabinet promises to be far more contentious. Shinde, who had to settle for the Deputy Chief Ministership behind Devendra Fadnavis following the last assembly elections, may now feel emboldened to petition the BJP leadership for the top job. The BJP’s state unit is actively preparing to fiercely resist any such demand. Senior BJP leaders are quick to emphasize that despite his parliamentary gains, Shinde’s legislative strength in the state assembly hovers around 57 MLAs, dwarfed by the BJP’s commanding 132 legislators. Consequently, conceding the Chief Minister’s chair remains highly improbable. Instead, the BJP will be forced into a delicate balancing act, likely appeasing Shinde by granting his faction a larger share of influential, heavyweight portfolios within the state government to keep the alliance stable. Ultimately, through sheer political audacity, Eknath Shinde has ensured that neither New Delhi nor Mumbai can afford to govern without catering to his increasingly formidable political weight.

New face of Bihar’s Luv-Kush politics after Nitish

New Delhi: For nearly two decades, the Luv-Kush political equation has remained one of the most influential social and electoral formations in Bihar. The alliance between the Kurmi and Koeri (Kushwaha) communities was transformed into a formidable political force largely under the leadership of former Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. However, as Nitish Kumar gradually steps back from active state politics and increasingly assumes a role in the Rajya Sabha, a crucial question is beginning to dominate Bihar’s political discourse that who will inherit the leadership of the Luv-Kush political bloc?


In the current political landscape, Rajya Sabha MP and National President of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), Upendra Kushwaha, appears to be one of the strongest contenders to fill that space.


Some leaders within the Janata Dal (United) have been making efforts to establish Nitish Kumar’s son, Nishant Kumar, as a political figure. However, Nishant has so far focused more on Bihar’s overall development, social engagement, and the state’s future challenges rather than caste-based politics. He has been touring districts and interacting with people on the vision of a “Developed Bihar.”


In contrast, Upendra Kushwaha’s political career has been deeply rooted in electoral politics, social representation, and issues concerning backward communities. This has helped him build an image as an experienced grassroots leader with a long-standing political presence.


Caste equations continue to play a significant role in Bihar’s electoral politics. In this context, Kushwaha’s strong influence within the Kushwaha community provides him with a considerable political advantage. Although Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary also belongs to the Koeri community and enjoys substantial support among its members, political observers believe that Upendra Kushwaha’s appeal extends beyond a single caste group. Analysts point out that he has long been associated with the broader Luv-Kush political alliance and possesses the potential to emerge as a wider representative of both communities.


Recent developments within the RLM have further strengthened this perception. The party’s national convention, held at the Constitution Club in New Delhi, offered important indications about Kushwaha’s future political direction. The resolutions passed and issues raised during the convention suggested that he has already outlined a roadmap for the next ten years.


Political Agenda

Rather than limiting himself to caste representation, Kushwaha has expanded his political agenda to include Bihar’s development, judicial reforms, delimitation, social justice, and agriculture-based industrial growth.

During the convention, the party acknowledged the development achieved in Bihar over the past two decades under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. Improvements in roads, electricity, transportation, and drinking water infrastructure were highlighted as significant milestones in the state’s progress.


At the same time, the party emphasized that Bihar still has a long way to go before it can compete with the country’s leading states. Particular attention was drawn to the need for stronger investment in education, healthcare, industry, and employment generation. The convention stressed that creating large-scale job opportunities within the state is essential to reducing the migration of young people in search of work.


Judicial reform has also emerged as one of Upendra Kushwaha’s key political priorities. The RLM has questioned the existing collegium system for judicial appointments and called for greater transparency in the selection of judges. The party advocates the creation of an Indian Judicial Service (IJS), with appointments made through a nationwide competitive examination similar to the system followed by the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC). Through its “Halla Bol, Darwaza Khol” campaign, Kushwaha has been attempting to elevate this issue into a subject of national debate.


The party has also linked the proposed 2026 delimitation exercise to Bihar’s political rights and representation. According to the RLM, Bihar has not received parliamentary representation proportionate to its population. Party leaders argue that had the freeze on delimitation not remained in place for decades, Bihar could have gained nearly 20 additional Lok Sabha seats. Consequently, the party is demanding that the upcoming delimitation exercise be conducted on the basis of actual population figures to ensure fair representation


On cultural and social issues, the party has sought to carve out a distinct identity. Proposals such as renaming Patna as Pataliputra, declaring the birth anniversary of Savitribai Phule as National Women’s Education Day, and promoting a renewed discourse on social justice are being viewed as part of this broader political strategy.


Economically, Kushwaha has strongly advocated agriculture-based industrialization as the foundation of Bihar’s future growth. He has argued for the expansion of industries linked to maize, sugarcane, litchi, makhana, dairy, and fisheries, describing them as effective tools for generating employment and curbing migration. According to him, Bihar cannot achieve sustained economic momentum unless agriculture is integrated more closely with industrial development.


Overall, Bihar’s politics appears to be entering a period of transition. As Nitish Kumar’s active role gradually diminishes, political stakeholders are searching for a new center of leadership within the influential Luv-Kush social alliance. In this evolving landscape, Upendra Kushwaha is positioning himself as a natural claimant to that space, leveraging his caste base, political experience, and engagement with broader governance issues.


Whether he ultimately succeeds in becoming the new axis of Bihar’s Luv-Kush politics or whether the state produces an entirely new political equation remains one of the most intriguing questions for the years ahead.

Comments

bottom of page