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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the...

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the cost of an emboldened ally demanding a bigger slice of the pie in both the Union and state cabinets. In a masterstroke of political engineering that has profoundly jolted political landscape, Shinde has once again demonstrated his formidable capacity for disruption. The rebellion of six out of nine Lok Sabha Members of Parliament from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), ostensibly joining Shinde’s ranks under the banner of “Operation Tiger,” is not merely a regional skirmish. It is a calculated power play that reverberates through the highest corridors of power in New Delhi. By nearly doubling his party’s strength in the lower house from seven to thirteen MPs, Shinde has dramatically altered his own political trajectory, elevating his faction from a helpful regional ally to an indispensable pillar of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Shinde’s Stature The immediate consequence of this crossover is a massive surge in Shinde’s stature within the NDA hierarchy. With thirteen parliamentarians, his Shiv Sena is now poised to become the fourth-largest bloc in the ruling national coalition, sitting just behind the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Telugu Desam Party, and the newly formed Nationalist Citizens Party of India. This numerical leap is of immense strategic value to the BJP-led central government. In a parliamentary environment where the ruling coalition possesses only a modest majority, every single seat counts. The central leadership is acutely aware of upcoming legislative hurdles, particularly ambitious constitutional amendments like the proposed delimitation bill, which will require a formidable two-thirds majority. By acting as the architect of this crucial numerical boost, Shinde has cemented his reputation as a reliable and highly effective operator for the NDA, significantly increasing his bargaining power and political leverage. National Relief For the BJP, this development evokes a complex mixture of profound national relief and acute regional anxiety. From the vantage point of PM Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Shinde’s successful poaching operation is a clear windfall. It simultaneously fortifies the NDA’s numerical strength in New Delhi while severely crippling a vocal opposition force in Maharashtra. The central BJP leadership views Shinde as a vital asset capable of bridging the gap between their current numbers and the overwhelming mandates of the past. However, the perspective from the Maharashtra BJP headquarters is noticeably more apprehensive. State BJP leaders openly acknowledge Shinde’s soaring political equity, but they are increasingly wary of his expanding ambitions. They recognize that an emboldened Shinde, eager to fill the political vacuum left by Uddhav Thackeray and a fragmented Nationalist Congress Party, will aggressively attempt to expand his footprint across the state, potentially encroaching upon the BJP’s own traditional support bases. Power Sharing This dramatically enhanced political heft immediately raises pressing questions regarding power-sharing arrangements, both at the Centre and in the state. Armed with thirteen MPs, Shinde’s camp is undoubtedly preparing to seek greater political rewards. In the Union Cabinet, his demand for an additional, high-profile ministerial berth is now backed by solid arithmetic. Given his heightened utility to the national coalition, the BJP high command is highly likely to accommodate this request during the next cabinet reshuffle. However, the power struggle within the Maharashtra state cabinet promises to be far more contentious. Shinde, who had to settle for the Deputy Chief Ministership behind Devendra Fadnavis following the last assembly elections, may now feel emboldened to petition the BJP leadership for the top job. The BJP’s state unit is actively preparing to fiercely resist any such demand. Senior BJP leaders are quick to emphasize that despite his parliamentary gains, Shinde’s legislative strength in the state assembly hovers around 57 MLAs, dwarfed by the BJP’s commanding 132 legislators. Consequently, conceding the Chief Minister’s chair remains highly improbable. Instead, the BJP will be forced into a delicate balancing act, likely appeasing Shinde by granting his faction a larger share of influential, heavyweight portfolios within the state government to keep the alliance stable. Ultimately, through sheer political audacity, Eknath Shinde has ensured that neither New Delhi nor Mumbai can afford to govern without catering to his increasingly formidable political weight.

Selective Outrage and the Politics of Morality in Maharashtra

Political morality was compromised the day the MVA was formed. Everything that followed was a consequence of that turning point.

Suddenly, after the news of six UBTSS MPs defecting to Shiv Sena, political discourse in Maharashtra has once again turned to questions of morality and ethics.


Yet, the sudden outrage of self-proclaimed intellectuals, left-liberals, and purogami voices has started its vidhva vilap once again over these defections. During the 30-month tenure of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, these same voices remained conspicuously silent.


Their silence over what many saw as a betrayal of the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly mandate gave legitimacy to many more such events. It started in 2022 with Eknath Shinde's split in Shiv Sena, followed by Ajit Pawar's split in the NCP.


In 2019, the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance (Yuti) secured a clear mandate, winning 161 of the 288 Assembly seats (BJP 105, Shiv Sena 56). However, Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) broke away from his pre-poll partner and joined hands with the Congress and NCP — parties against whom he campaigned and against whom his MLAs fought and won.


This move was widely perceived as a backstab of the people's verdict.


It was like a wedding and reception where people happily attended and blessed the couple (Yuti), wishing them success in their future journey together. Then, shockingly, the bride runs away with a new boyfriend before the suhaag raat, leaving the groom alone.


The formation of the MVA government was the biggest betrayal of a public mandate in Indian history, and that too on results day.


It was not criticised by those so-called intellectuals. I repeat, not a single person criticised it. In fact, much of the left-liberal ecosystem and media supported the MVA government because it suited their agenda.


They are very selective in their outrage. They became outraged in 2022 when Eknath Shinde split Shiv Sena. They are outraged again now with the news of six MPs defecting. They speak loudly of morality now. Their silence then and outrage now expose double standards.


This reminds me of the Mahabharata, when Pitamah Bhishma, Dronacharya and Kripacharya remained silent during Draupadi's cheerharan.


The betrayal of the 2019 Maharashtra mandate evokes parallels with the Mahabharata. Just as Abhimanyu was killed unethically by seven Kaurava warriors, the 2019 mandate was "killed" by the alliance of UBT, Congress and NCP.


After Abhimanyu's death, talks of morality lost their meaning. It became the turning point of the Mahabharata. Many unethical events followed, such as Yudhishthir saying "Naro va Kunjaro va", Karna being killed by Arjuna when his chariot was stuck in the mud and he had stepped out unarmed, and Bhima striking Duryodhana on the thigh, below the belt and against the rules of war.


Similarly, the betrayal of the Maharashtra mandate in 2019 was the turning point of Maharashtra politics. Political morality was compromised the day the MVA was formed.


Subsequent events — Eknath Shinde's split from Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar's split from the NCP, and now reports of six UBT MPs considering another split — followed.


Krishna justified breaches in the name of Dharma, arguing that the Dharmayudh was between Dharma and Adharma. He stood with the Pandavas and supported Dharma against Adharma.


In both cases — the Mahabharata and Maharashtra politics — the larger struggle was framed as Dharma versus Adharma.


The Numbers Game

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, after setbacks on delimitation and the Women's Reservation Bill, recalibrated their strategy. They recognised that in a democracy, numbers matter more than intentions. Without numbers, reforms remain aspirations. Their focus now is on gathering the strength needed for constitutional changes and doing everything possible within the limits of the Constitution. Their every move is legally and constitutionally correct. Morality and ethics are merely noise and subjects for prime-time debate.


The vision of New Bharat rests on reforms such as the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), One Nation, One Election, Delimitation, the Women's Reservation Bill, judicial reforms and electoral reforms.


These changes, proponents argue, will transform India into New Bharat. To achieve that, Modi and Shah are working ruthlessly within the limits of the Constitution.


Hypocrisy Exposed

The hypocrisy of intellectual voices is stark. Those who remained silent during the MVA's rule cannot now claim the moral high ground. By ignoring the 2019 betrayal, they legitimised political opportunism.


The Maharashtra episode is more than a state-level dispute. It reflects the larger struggle over political morality, constitutional legitimacy and the future of Indian democracy.


Just as the Mahabharata was fought to establish Dharma, today's battles are shaping the contours of New Bharat.


The question remains: in this modern Dharmayudh, where do you stand in the Dharmayudh of New Bharat?


(The writer is a political commentator. Views personal.)

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