top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect...

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect elections only become newsworthy under specific conditions: either the ruling coalition is plagued by internal fissures, or the opposition is too fragmented to put up a united front. In Maharashtra, however, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Recently, the Rajya Sabha elections became the center of intense media scrutiny, and over the past week, the Legislative Council polls followed suit. Although all ten candidates—nine from the ruling alliance and one from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—are now set to be elected unopposed, the intricate backroom maneuvers that led to this truce kept the state’s political circles buzzing. Interestingly, the reason for this heightened news value can be traced to both a subtle tug-of-war within the ruling combine and a visibly weakened opposition. Shifting Strategy The maneuvering within the opposition ranks has been particularly telling. A major focal point of the election buildup was the anticipated candidacy of Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray. After generating considerable hype and speculation about a potential return to the legislature, Thackeray ultimately chose to withdraw from the electoral fray. This sudden pullback forced a rapid recalibration within the MVA. Initially, the Congress party had adopted an aggressive posture, declaring its intention to field a candidate if Thackeray decided against contesting. However, following closed-door deliberations with Shiv Sena (UBT) leadership, the Congress quietly backed down. Why the state Congress leadership so readily acquiesced to this sudden change in strategy, sacrificing a potential seat, remains a mystery and a subject of intense debate among political observers. On the other side of the aisle, the ruling Mahayuti coalition maximized this electoral opportunity to consolidate its political base, reward loyalists, and balance complex regional equations. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strategically paved the way for the political rehabilitation of former Congress legislator Zishan Siddique by nominating him to the Legislative Council. This calculated move introduces a prominent new Muslim face for the party, likely intended to fill the leadership vacuum in Mumbai left by veteran leader Nawab Malik. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used his nominations to send a definitive message about the premium he places on loyalty. By securing another term for Dr. Neelam Gorhe, Shinde demonstrated that those who stood by his faction would be adequately rewarded. Furthermore, by bringing Vidarbha strongman Bachchu Kadu into the fold, Shinde has attempted to anchor his party’s future and expand its footprint in a region predominantly controlled by his senior alliance partner, the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, playing its characteristic long game, meticulously ensured that its list of six candidates struck the perfect organizational, social, and political balance. Battle for LOP Despite these broader alliance strategies, the most consequential nomination in this electoral cycle is arguably that of Ambadas Danve. Barely six months after completing his tenure in the Upper House and stepping down from the prestigious post of Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Danve has been nominated once again by the Shiv Sena (UBT). With his return to the house, there is a strong possibility that he will reclaim his former post. This specific development highlights a much deeper crisis within the Congress. Following Danve’s brief retirement, the Congress had naturally emerged as the largest opposition party in the Upper House. This mathematical advantage theoretically paved the way for their Kolhapur strongman, Satej “Banti” Patil, to lay claim to the Leader of the Opposition’s chair. However, the sudden defection of Congress MLC Pradnya Satav, who switched loyalties to the BJP, severely dented the party’s numbers. Her departure brought the Congress’s strength in the house just below that of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Stripped of its numerical superiority overnight, the Congress was relegated to being a mute spectator, unable to assert its rightful claim. Internal Dissent This series of tactical defeats has triggered palpable frustration within the Congress’s state unit. One senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed deep disappointment with the state leadership’s inability to protect the party’s interests. “Everyone has personal political ambitions, but leaders must learn the ways to collectively move ahead and strategize,” the leader remarked, attributing the party’s current stagnation in Maharashtra to this lack of cohesive vision. In short, these Legislative Council elections have delivered one message loud and clear: even when everything appears calm and stable on the surface, the relentless machinery of politics continues to churn behind the scenes. No political player in Maharashtra can afford to rest assured or sit idle under the illusion that there are no major state elections until 2029.

Old Friends, New Calculations

Forged in Cold War solidarity, India’s ties with Russia are built on trust and crises weathered together. But in 2025, pragmatism must temper nostalgia.


 

India’s foreign policy today is at an inflection point. While its partnership with the United States often garners headlines, its longstanding, deep-rooted ties with Russia form a quieter yet foundational pillar. As the global balance of power shifts in uncertain ways, a comprehensive evaluation of Indo-Russian relations becomes essential not just to understand historical trust but also to assess contemporary relevance, long-term risks and future opportunities.


The Indo-Russian partnership (previously Indo-Soviet) is built on decades of trust. During the Cold War era, the Soviet Union was India’s principal diplomatic and military supporter. The Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation in 1971 and Moscow's support during the Bangladesh Liberation War remain emblematic of that legacy. For decades, Russian-supplied arms formed the backbone of India’s military. Unlike Western nations, Russia refrained from pressuring India on its nuclear ambitions and did not intervene in internal matters. Even today, approximately 60 to 70 percent of India’s military hardware is of Russian origin. Joint development projects such as BrahMos missiles, the leasing of nuclear submarines, and the production of Sukhoi and MiG fighter aircraft reflect deep technical cooperation. India’s purchase of the S-400 Triumf missile system, despite the threat of U.S. sanctions under CAATSA, signalled India’s resolve to preserve strategic autonomy. The reciprocal nature of these deals makes Russia a valuable defence partner.


Since 2022 Russia has become India’s biggest crude supplier, rising from less than one percent to over forty percent of imports by late 2024. Cheap oil steadied fuel prices and curbed inflation while Indian stakes in Sakhalin-I and Vankorneft and its role in the North-South Transport Corridor underscore a deepening energy interdependence.


While Russia is not a leader in digital technologies or semiconductors, its strengths in space, nuclear energy, and advanced defence systems complement India’s needs. The Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian assistance, is India’s largest nuclear power facility. Russia has offered support for new reactors under an agreement that allows construction of more nuclear units while collaborations in Arctic research, quantum technology and rare earth mineral extraction are on the horizon.


Russia remains a vocal supporter of a multipolar world order - a principle central to India’s own foreign policy doctrine. Moscow supports India’s permanent membership in the UN Security Council and plays a balancing role in forums like BRICS, SCO, and the Russia-India-China trilateral. It seldom aligns with Western critiques on India’s internal policies. Russia has also facilitated India’s access to Central Asia, both for strategic presence and energy partnerships.


However, the Indo-Russian relationship is not without strain. Russia’s growing proximity to China, particularly in the aftermath of the Ukraine war and resultant sanctions, poses a dilemma for India. The Russia-China “no limits” partnership and joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific have raised eyebrows in New Delhi. Additionally, India’s increasing engagement with the U.S., the QUAD, and I2U2 is viewed with concern in Moscow. Russia’s silence during the 2020 to 2022 India-China border tensions has further complicated perceptions. There is also a technological gap; Russia lacks depth in AI, green technologies, and digital infrastructure - areas where India seeks global partnerships.


The post-Ukraine Western sanctions regime has constrained India–Russia economic ties. Banking restrictions, SWIFT bans, and secondary sanction threats have disrupted payment mechanisms. The Rupee-Ruble trade mechanism has struggled with imbalance and convertibility. As a result, many Indian exporters have reported delays in payments and logistical hurdles. Long-term infrastructure cooperation such as the Chennai–Vladivostok corridor remains underutilized, largely due to geopolitical uncertainties.


In India, Russia continues to be seen as a time-tested friend. Opinion polls show consistent support for maintaining strong ties with Russia, especially among strategic communities and older generations. Indian political leadership across party lines has maintained continuity in Russia ties. This stands in contrast to the more transactional perception of Western partnerships.


Russia’s enduring popularity in Indian strategic and public imagination stems largely from its perceived reliability during moments of crisis. From the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, when the Soviet Union’s vetoes in the UN Security Council shielded India diplomatically, to its support for India’s defence modernization during the 1990s post-nuclear tests phase, Russia has often stood by India when others wavered. Even during the Kargil conflict, Russia took a firm position favouring India’s territorial integrity. In more recent years, it has refrained from criticizing India’s moves in Kashmir or its strategic autonomy in multilateral forums. This has created a reservoir of goodwill that continues to influence India’s elite and popular attitudes. However, the assumption that Russia’s support is unconditional must be re-evaluated in light of its growing dependence on China, its own strategic compulsions and the evolving global order.


In the wake of the U.S. imposing 50 percent tariffs on a wide range of Indian exports, India has quietly moved to deepen ties with alternative partners. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s high-profile visit to Moscow in August 2025 underscored this recalibration. During the visit, both countries reaffirmed their strategic partnership, and Jaishankar dismissed U.S. criticism of India’s energy ties with Russia as hypocritical. The trip came amid fears of a broader decoupling with the West and domestic pressure to diversify trade routes and strategic alliances. Russia, sensing the moment, has offered India more favourable terms in oil and defence purchases, with faster payment channels and expanded rupee-rouble trade mechanisms now under discussion.


India–Russia ties are not defined by flashy headlines but are built quietly through continuity, crisis management and complementary interests. However, legacy trust should not cloud strategic calculation. The world of 2025 demands hard choices, especially when older alliances are tested by newer compulsions. India must navigate this equation not as a nostalgic partner but as a pragmatic power. As old friends evolve, the challenge lies in managing expectations while maximizing returns.


(The author is former Director, Agharkar Research Institute and Visiting Professor, IIT Bombay. Views personal.)

 

 

 

 

Comments

bottom of page