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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Plastic Isn’t the Polluter. We Are

Are you guilty of taking plastic bags for your regular grocery shopping, or do you do the right thing and carry your own?

Recently, I was addressing a group of young people at a seminar. Most of them were students. The topic of the session was “Beat the Plastic Pollution”. I began my speech with a deliberately provocative statement. “Plastic does not create any pollution,” I said. Then I paused and asked, “Do you all agree?”


The room instantly filled with confusion. The audience looked at one another, clearly perplexed. Whispers began to ripple across the hall. A few students seemed almost amused, while others appeared genuinely disturbed. “Sir, your topic for this lead lecture is Beat the Plastic Pollution,” someone murmured. “And you are saying that plastic does not create any pollution. How is that possible?”


I let the moment linger. Once again, I asked them, “Do you agree?” This time, a few hands went up. One student spoke confidently. “Sir, extensive research shows that plastic has become one of the worst pollutants. It is creating life-threatening conditions across the globe. In that case, how can you say plastic does not cause pollution?”


They were absolutely right. I had anticipated this response. That question was precisely what I wanted to provoke. I smiled and told them that before answering, I would describe a scene all of us have witnessed many times in our daily lives. Then I began narrating that familiar, everyday sight.


My wife and I had gone to buy vegetables and fruits from a local vendor near our home. As expected, the place was crowded. Many people were busy selecting produce and bargaining over prices. It was a familiar, everyday scene.


One thing, however, stood out clearly. Only a handful of customers—including us—were carrying a cotton thaila or a bag made of cloth. Most others had arrived empty-handed. They carried nothing except their wallets, ready to pay and walk away.


After we finished choosing our vegetables, the vendor acted almost instinctively. In a fraction of a second, he pulled out a brand-new plastic bag from a pile hidden beside him—despite the fact that plastic bags are banned. Before we could react, he had already started putting our purchases into it. His hands moved so swiftly that it felt like a reflex action, learnt and repeated countless times.


My wife reacted immediately. She stopped him mid-action and handed over the cloth bag we had brought from home. Seeing this, I spoke aloud so others nearby could hear. “Bhaiyya, plastic ki thaili mat diya karo kisiko bhi… ye galat hai.” (Brother, please don’t give plastic bags to anyone… it is wrong.)


The vendor looked at me helplessly and replied without hesitation. “Kya kare sirji, yadi main plastic bag nahi dunga, to log mujhse mera maal kharidenge nahi. Fir mera dhandha kaise chalega?” (What can I do, sir? If I don’t give plastic bags, people won’t buy from me. Then how will my business survive?)


I glanced around, hoping that people nearby would pause and reflect. I thought they might realise that what they were doing was part of the problem. But that hope quickly faded. Those who had not brought their own bags showed no interest in the conversation. They neither listened nor reacted. The vendor, meanwhile, continued obliging them, handing out plastic bags one after another.


Among the crowd were a few parents accompanied by their school-going children. I decided to speak to one such family. I gently asked why they had not carried bags from home.


The child answered candidly, almost casually. “Uncle, why should we take the trouble of carrying those clumsy-looking bags when these lightweight, see-through bags are so easily available?”


Then came a remark that stayed with me. The child added, “We can use these bags for storing our household garbage and then throw them into the dustbin or directly at the roadside garbage dump.”


That response, innocent as it sounded, revealed just how normal and unquestioned plastic use had become—even in young, educated minds.


I will pause my narration here. What happened next? You’ll have to wait until next Saturday to find out.


Until then, enjoy a wonderful last weekend of the year 2025.


(The author is an environmentalist. Views Personal.) 


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