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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Quota Fraud

In Maharashtra’s roiling politics, scandal is rarely novel. But what distinguishes the affair of NCP leader Manikrao Kokate is not merely its age (three decades old) but the brazenness of its facts and the slipperiness of the response. A serving cabinet minister in the ruling Mahayuti, convicted of cheating and forgery for fraudulently cornering housing meant for the poor, has resigned only after an arrest warrant was issued and the threat of disqualification became unavoidable speaks volumes against the ruling government. Kokate should be formally sacked, swiftly arrested and treated like any other citizen convicted of criminal fraud.


In a case dating back to 1995, Kokate and his brother were found guilty of falsely claiming eligibility under the Chief Minister’s discretionary housing quota, meant for low-income families, to secure two flats in Nashik. The offences are a catalogue of dishonesty: cheating, forgery, using forged documents and acting with common intent. The sessions court upheld the magistrate’s verdict of a two-year sentence and a fine, triggering the Representation of the People Act’s clear provision: a conviction of two years or more brings immediate disqualification unless stayed by a higher court.


What followed was depressingly familiar. An arrest warrant against Kokate was issued, who rushed to the Bombay High Court. Kokate’s chest pain conveniently intervened, producing a hospital bed at Lilavati Hospital and a temporary shield from the police. Meanwhile, allegations surfaced that the State’s machinery was bending over backwards to buy time for a legal reprieve. None of this inspires confidence that the law applies evenly, least of all when ministers are involved.


The Bharatiya Janata Party and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, partners in the ruling Mahayuti, are said to have insisted on Kokate’s exit, acutely aware of the optics of sheltering a convicted man. But Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis must act firmly now.


Kokate’s boss, NCP chief Ajit Pawar, who now holds the sports portfolio along with finance and excise, finds himself once again at the uncomfortable centre of a moral muddle. His faction of the NCP has long claimed pragmatism as its creed. Yet pragmatism that shades into permissiveness corrodes legitimacy, especially given successive scandals involving his aide, Dhananjay Munde and son Parth Pawar.


Housing quotas for the economically weak are among the most tangible expressions of state compassion. To abuse them is thieving from those with the least voice. That such a crime could coexist with ministerial office sends a toxic signal about what Maharashtra’s political class considers tolerable.


Kokate’s past antics, including being caught playing rummy on his phone during an assembly session, add farce to the felony. But this is no laughing matter. The right course is to accept the resignation formally, sack him decisively, ensure the arrest warrant is executed without indulgence, and let the courts run their course without interference. Anything less will confirm the suspicion that in Maharashtra’s politics, a resignation is merely a pause button and justice is a negotiable inconvenience.

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