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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

‘Scary to see parts of LA burning from my window’

Updated: Jan 20, 2025

A resident Sai Pethe shares her experiences, recalling the profoundly said feeling of anticipating if her house would be next while watching several parts of the city burning

LA burning

While many lost their homes in the deadly wildfires that swept through California, particularly in Los Angeles, several survivors who lived just close to the most affected region, were not the direct victims of the fire, however they saw the devastation happening with their own eyes. 26-year-old Sai Pethe, an Indian origin US citizen who has been living in Los Angeles for the last two years has a pool of experiences to share when she saw most parts of her city burning from the window of her own house, fearfully speculating if she would lose her house next.


Speaking to ‘The Perfect Voice’, Pethe said, “Last week, there were about five minutes when I believed I had to evacuate due to a false alarm from the fire department. A blaring alert on our phones instructed us to evacuate, but it turned out the warning was only meant for a smaller neighborhood closer to the fires. During those five minutes, I had to evaluate everything in my surroundings to decide what to pack. It was a very scary and profoundly sad feeling—sitting in my home while watching parts of my city burn.”


Pethe, who is a Portfolio Specialist at the University of Southern California lives just outside Santa Monica, and her neighborhood was never in the evacuation zone. Her house is located slightly outside the possible evacuation area and her locality was placed in a “Red Alert” warning zone. This meant there were weather conditions that could potentially ignite a fire in the area. A combination of dry weather and a particularly rainless year created the perfect conditions for a large fire to start and spread.


On Saturday, reports said that The city of Santa Monica announced that all evacuation warnings within its city limits have been lifted, following significant progress in containing the Palisades Fire. Residents in all areas north of San Vicente Boulevard, previously under an evacuation warning, are now cleared to return home. Containment of the Palisades Fire has now reached 43 per cent.


Wildfires sweeping through the Los Angeles region have so far resulted in close to 27 deaths, and have forced thousands of residents to evacuate, and destroyed over 12,000 buildings. The affected area spans more than 160 sq km, an expanse larger than the city of San Francisco. Among the worst-hit areas are the Palisades, Eaton, Kenneth, and Hurst regions.


While investigation is underway with a lot of theories leading to the cause of fire are being probed, this is believed to be the deadliest fire in the history of America, which seemed impossible to be contained by the richest and the most equipped country like the US.


Pethe pointed out, “This is a life-threatening effect of climate change. Governments worldwide have failed to protect our planet from the irreversible effects of climate change caused by carbon emissions. The Santa Ana winds that fueled the LA wildfires were significantly stronger this year, causing the fires to spread rapidly. At times, the fires seemed almost impossible to contain, even with the resources of a well-funded fire department.”


LA has been battling the crisis for over two weeks now, while several incidents like theft were reported too in the areas, where for example, burning houses were looted, a situation being misused by anti-social elements. However, predominantly a sentiment of helping each other face the situation prevailed in Los Angeles. “Throughout this crisis, the people of LA have come together to show care, support, and compassion for the communities most impacted by the fires. We’ve pooled our resources to donate supplies, food, and shelter to the best of our abilities,” said Pethe.


Lauding the fearless effort of the firefighters who worked day in and day out amid harsh weather conditions to bring the blaze under control, Pethe also highlighted the gesture of the international neighbours to provide help. “It was heartwarming to see our international neighbors to the north and south send helicopters, fire jets, and firefighters to assist in the effort,” said Pethe.

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