top of page

By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Tackling Biomedical Waste, Made in India

While machines like Srjanam promise the future, NGOs like Enviro-Vigil have quietly ensured safer present-day practices.

In my previous article, I discussed the technologies hospitals use to safely treat biomedical waste — from microwaves and hydroclaves to autoclaves — each with its own strengths and limitations. While these systems have played an important role globally, questions of cost, scalability, and accessibility remain central challenges for Indian healthcare facilities. Building on that discussion, this week I turn to some exciting new developments and success stories in biomedical waste management closer to home.


One important driver of innovation in this field has been the Make in India initiative, which has also left its mark on biomedical waste management. In February 2025, the Minister of Science and Technology, Dr Jitendra Singh, inaugurated Srjanam—India’s first indigenously developed automated biomedical waste treatment plant, or rig, at AIIMS, New Delhi.


This innovative and environmentally friendly technology has been developed by CSIR–NIIST (National Institute for Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram). It represents a significant step forward in the sustainable management of biomedical waste. The Srjanam rig can disinfect pathogenic waste, such as blood, urine, sputum, and laboratory disposables, without relying on costly, energy-intensive incinerators. Remarkably, it also leaves behind a pleasant fragrance, masking the otherwise noxious odours of toxic waste.


Once validated, the technology will be ready for large-scale deployment, pending approval from the relevant authorities.


Managing Thane’s Hospital Waste: How Enviro-Vigil’s Common Biomedical Waste Facility Became a Success Story

While Srjanam represents the future of cutting-edge biomedical waste management, equally inspiring are grassroots efforts that have quietly but effectively tackled the problem for years. One such example comes from Thane, where the NGO Enviro-Vigil has pioneered community-driven solutions.


Before concluding this series on hospital waste management, I would like to highlight the sustained efforts of a Thane-based NGO, Enviro-Vigil (Paryavaran Dakshata Mandal), which has been managing the city’s hospital waste for nearly two decades.


Enviro-Vigil was originally founded in the 1990s by a group of industrialists from Navi Mumbai. For reasons of their own, they later entrusted the organisation to us so that its environmental activities could continue. In 1998–99, Prof. Walavalkar and I, from Bandodkar Science College, Thane, together with Dr Vikas Hajirnis, a medical practitioner serving the poor in Chendani Koliwada, assumed responsibility for carrying the work forward. We were later joined by Mr Ravi Kadam and Mr Prasad Date.


Our initial focus was on raising public awareness in Thane, particularly around household waste management. Around this time, we also attended a two-day workshop on hospital solid waste management at Veer Jijamata Institute of Technology (VJTI) in Mumbai. The expert discussions and presentations proved invaluable for our later work.


By then, the Biomedical Waste (Management and Handling) Rules, 1998, had come into effect, placing the responsibility for establishing common facilities for the collection and treatment of biomedical waste with urban local bodies. Accordingly, Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC) was tasked with creating such a facility for all government and private hospitals within its jurisdiction.


In 2000, Mr K. P. Bakshi (IAS), then Commissioner of TMC, entrusted us with conducting a survey to quantify the category-wise biomedical waste generated across hospitals. Aware of our previous work in waste management, he placed confidence in us to carry out the task. With full sincerity and with the active involvement of our college students, we conducted a comprehensive survey and submitted an exhaustive report. Following this, Enviro-Vigil was formally awarded the project of establishing a common facility for the treatment and disposal of biomedical waste—a responsibility we undertook as an NGO.


Read more about this in my next article. Until then, have a nice weekend.


(The author is an environmentalist.)

Comments

bottom of page