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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

The Three Bucket Rule

As we start the new financial year, this is a good time to pause and look at how your monthly income is being used. Let me try and help you rationalise your expenses, EMIs, and savings in a simple and practical manner. If you do not consciously divide your income, it quietly disappears into expenses, EMIs, and lifestyle leakages. The solution is simple: divide your monthly income into three buckets.


The three-bucket approach

For ease of understanding, think of these as three roughly equal parts of one-third each. This may not be mathematically perfect for every person, but it is a very practical framework that creates discipline and clarity in money management.


Bucket 1: Monthly expenses

This includes routine household expenses, bills, groceries, fuel, dining out, lifestyle spending, and other regular outflows. In short, this bucket is meant for your present life and present needs. Ideally, you should try to restrict these expenses to one-third of your monthly income. 


Bucket 2: Loan repayments and EMIs

This includes home loans, car loans, personal loans, education loans, and even credit card dues. While debt may sometimes be necessary, it must remain within control. As a broad thumb rule, this bucket too should not exceed one-third of your monthly income. If your EMI burden regularly crosses this level, it is usually a sign that you are over-leveraged.


The more disciplined you are in Bucket 1 and 2, the more room you create for wealth creation.


Bucket 3: Investments for long-term goals

This is the bucket of delayed gratification, also something that most people neglect. Saving money is not the same as investing money. Investments should be made with the right asset allocation and with clear long-term goals in mind - children’s education, marriage, buying a dream home, a dream car, dream vacation and your retirement. These are goals that cannot usually be met from one month’s income alone. They require regular and purposeful investing.


What if you have no EMIs?

If you do not have loans or EMIs, it becomes even easier. You may be able to invest 40%, 50%, or even more of your income. That is excellent, because the more you direct towards investments, the stronger your future financial position becomes.


Use three bank accounts

A very effective way to implement this system is to maintain three separate bank accounts. The first is the Income Account, where your salary or business income is received. The second is the Expenses and EMIs Account, from which all regular spending and loan repayments are made. The third is the Investments Account, the most important one, from which long-term investments are made.


Present self vs future self

Seen differently, the Expenses Account is for your present self, while the Investments Account is for your future self. Over time, this simple habit creates clarity, discipline, and control. And that is the real goal of personal finance: to ensure that you command your money, instead of letting money rule you.


(The author is a Chartered Accountant and CFA (USA). Financial Advisor. Views personal. He could be reached on 9833133605.)

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