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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

Warriors of Night

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

We name our daughters Durga, Lakshmi and Saraswati; we worship the divine feminine power in the temples but oppress, repress and even attack the feminine power amidst us. That is the irony in the way India sees its women.

After the safety of the daylight fades, women are seen as easy prey by the predators of the night.

We mark the nine nights of Navratri, the festival of the goddess, by celebrating the dedication and valour of nine real-life women who brave the challenges of the night to pursue their dreams.


Part - 4


Never felt unsafe

The singer says there has been a generational change over the last two decades

Never felt unsafe

Work has no timings for Aisha Sayed. Sometimes, she begins her studio recording at 12 AM and finishes by 5 AM; at other times, concerts and live shows start at 9 AM and she’s done by midnight. In her field of work as a performer and singer, Sayed is used to not getting a night’s sleep and often returning home when most of the city is set to wake up. “I have been travelling at night but I have never, ever, felt unsafe in Mumbai,” says the singer-performer who began her career at the age of 13 years. Her father spotted her talent for music and took her to meet a sound engineer who was their neighbour in Bandra. The family helped her get opportunities and from there, her career began.

Being among the top contenders in Indian Idol, season 3, in 2007 catapulted her to fame and it opened up a world of new performance opportunities across the country. “I was just 20 years then and I was travelling the world, performing at the most lavish weddings, staying at the most luxurious hotels and performing at big corporate gigs,” she says. Safety, while on work, is has never been an issue for her for the organizers arrange a security detail for the performers. “They escort us until we reach the room. And since we travel with our team in a big group, there is always safety in numbers,” says Sayed, who sings in 10 languages. Her peers have faced instances of audience members being rowdy. “Once in Delhi, a group of drunk men followed my colleague to her room and kept banging on her door late into the night. But I have been fortunate,” she says.

Work assignments have taken to varied places, from the most luxurious international destinations to far-off venues in the hinterland of India where she’s travelled through dark, dense forested areas. “I have driven through areas where the only light is that of your car’s headlights. Turn around and you see pitch darkness,” says Sayed. She’s always got a little prayer on her lips when travelling through these remote areas for miles together. She recalls a show in Chattisgarh where she had to travel for nine hours at a stretch through remote and forested areas. “No place in our country is as safe as Mumbai,” she stresses. She would know, considering her extensive travels. She advises women to travel in groups while in places that are unfamiliar or unknown and never to venture out at night alone. “Keep your family informed of your whereabouts,” she says.

While her agreements state that proper security at all times, Sayed says that she drives her own car if she’s out at night for parties or personal work but insists that the people of Mumbai are largely helpful and cooperative. A rickshaw driver who once drove to home in the wee hours of the night, after a recording, waited at her gate until the watchman let her in. Friends and colleagues have dropped her home several times.

Mumbai, she feels, has changed—and it’s for the better, in the past two decades. “Earlier, on buses and trains, men would use the crowd as an excuse to touch women inappropriately. That has gone down. There is a generational change that I see,” says Sayed. She used to take the BEST buses and trains to her training classes and for recordings in the early days of her career.

Her timings are inconsistent and her shows take her to various cities and towns. But the Mumbai-bred girl emphasizes that her city is very safe for women, despite the various incidents of violence. “Mumbai is the only place where a woman can wear what she wants, wear bright red lipstick, leave her hair open and look glamorous and still be safe.”

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