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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Why is India Considered the Most Polluting Nation?

In the span of a few decades, India transformed from a clean, green country to a nation struggling under the weight of plastic pollution.

About 30–35 years ago, when I used to travel to a small town near Pune to visit my parents, the landscapes of almost all the villages and towns on the way were open, green, and clean. Vast stretches of grassland, dotted with a few trees and bushes, created a sense of calm and natural beauty. Those journeys were marked by freshness and simplicity, where nature still dominated the surroundings.


Gradually, however, the scenery began to change. Plastic bottles, polythene bags, and other waste materials slowly started appearing along the roadsides and in open fields. What was once an occasional sight has now become an alarming reality. Today, if you travel through the same landscapes, you are likely to be shocked by the extent of plastic litter covering them.


Tree branches now appear “decorated” with hanging polythene bags. Many more lie scattered on the ground, while some are seen ‘flying’ in the air, carried by the slightest breeze or a sudden whirlwind. Large and small plastic bottles, wrappers, and containers are spread everywhere, almost as if they are ‘adorning’ the landscape. The natural beauty has been replaced by an unsettling image of neglect and carelessness.


The situation in cities is no different. A few decades ago, even small and large cities were relatively free from plastic waste. Today, however, almost all cities in India have literally turned into “Plastic Cities,” where plastic litter has become a common and accepted sight.


Interestingly, although India tops the global list as the most plastic-polluting nation, its per capita plastic consumption and waste generation are much lower than in many other countries. For example, Belgium has the highest recorded per capita plastic waste generation, averaging 147.7 kg per person per year, followed by the USA and other high-income developed countries, including China. In comparison, India generates only about 11 kg of plastic waste per person per year. By this measure, India ranks almost at the bottom globally.


This naturally raises an important question: if our per capita plastic waste generation is so low, why is India considered the most plastic-polluting country?


The answer lies in multiple systemic challenges. The first and most critical is the lack of proper infrastructure to collect, segregate, and process plastic waste efficiently. Segregation at the source of generation is the most essential step in waste management, and this is precisely where we lag far behind countries like Belgium and others.


As mentioned in my earlier articles, residents often dispose of unsegregated or mixed waste either along roadsides—leading to the formation of foul-smelling garbage heaps—or into municipal dustbins. These are then collected by the employees of urban local bodies, who themselves have limited facilities to deal with mixed waste effectively.


It has been observed that most towns and cities lack proper waste-processing plants with sanitary landfill sites. Instead, they follow crude and outdated methods such as dumping or landfilling mixed and unsegregated waste. There is a severe shortage of modern sanitary landfills and advanced recycling facilities across the country.


Another crucial missing link is the absence of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in most cities. An MRF is a dedicated facility where mixed or unsegregated, non-compostable solid waste can be temporarily stored and systematically sorted. It allows authorised agencies and the informal sector to segregate, recover, and recycle valuable materials before the remaining waste is sent for processing or disposal.


The establishment of MRFs is a vital step towards scientific and sustainable plastic waste management. Unfortunately, their absence in most urban centres continues to weaken India’s ability to handle plastic responsibly, turning a low per capita waste generator into one of the world’s most visible plastic polluters.

More on this in my next article. Till then, have a good weekend!


(The author is an environmentalist. Views Personal.)

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