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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Good Loans vs Bad Loans: The Choices That Shape Your Financial Future

Loans are easy to get today; the real skill is knowing when not to borrow.

In today’s fast-paced financial world, loans have become an integral part of life. From education to housing and from business growth to personal needs, borrowing is more common than ever. But while loans can be useful, not all have the same impact. Some help you grow financially, while others trap you in long-term debt and stress. Understanding the difference between a good loan and a bad loan is essential.


What Makes a Loan “Good”?

A good loan is one that creates long-term value, adds to your assets, or increases your earning ability. These loans support financial growth instead of draining resources.


1. Asset Creation – Loans used to purchase assets that appreciate, like residential or commercial property, are considered good loans. Property values generally rise over time, turning an EMI into a long-term investment.


2. Enhances Skills and Income – Education loans and business loans are classic examples of good loans. An education loan provides skills that increase future earnings, while a business loan can help expand capacity, increase revenue, and strengthen long-term stability.


3. Affordable Interest and Predictable EMIs – Good loans usually have lower interest rates and stable repayment schedules. They fit into your budget without putting excessive pressure on your monthly finances.


4. Taken With Clear Purpose - Good loans are taken only after understanding the purpose, evaluating the returns, and planning the repayment. These loans come with clarity and future benefits, not emotional decisions.


What Turns a Loan Into a “Bad Loan”?

Bad loans are those that do not create income, lose value quickly, or lead to financial strain. They are rooted more in convenience and lifestyle desires than in financial planning.


1. Consumption-Based Borrowing: Loans taken for travel, luxury shopping, gadgets, or lifestyle upgrades fall into this category. These items lose value within months, leaving the borrower paying EMIs without long-term benefit.


2. High-Interest Borrowing: Instant loans, credit card loans, and short-term personal loans carry extremely high interest rates. While they offer quick cash, they often trap people in cycles of repayments, penalties, and rollover charges.


3. No Return on Investment: Borrowing for depreciating items or non-essential expenses leads to a bad loan. After the excitement fades, the borrower is left with EMI payments but no asset that adds to their wealth.


4. Emotional or Social Pressure: Many people take loans to match trends, maintain lifestyle standards, or fulfil social expectations. Such emotional borrowing is one of the biggest contributors to bad debt.


5. No Leverage in Equity Borrowing to Invest in the Share Market: This is one of the most dangerous forms of bad debt. Taking a loan to invest in stocks, futures and options (F&O), or intraday trading is extremely risky. Markets are unpredictable, losses can exceed capital, and interest continues to accrue even when investments fail.Using leverage in equity with borrowed money can wipe out savings, increase pressure, and push you into a debt trap. Equity investing should always be done with your own money, never with loans.


Why People Fall Into Bad Loans

  • Easy availability of instant loans

  • Lack of financial literacy

  • Overuse of credit cards

  • Influence of social media lifestyle trends

  • Misjudging EMI affordability

  • Desire for quick gratification

  • As borrowing becomes easier, irresponsible borrowing is also rising.


How to Identify a Good Loan Before Borrowing

Before taking any loan, ask yourself:

1. Will this loan increase my income or improve my skills?

2. Will the value of what I’m buying grow or depreciate?

3. Are the interest rates reasonable?

4. Can I repay the EMI comfortably from my monthly income?

5. Is this a genuine need or just a desire?


If a loan adds to your future, it’s a good loan. If it only satisfies a temporary want, it’s a bad loan.


India’s Changing Debt Pattern

India has seen a rise in personal loans, credit card spending, and instant app-based loans. Many young people fall into an “EMI lifestyle”, where much of their salary goes toward repayments. On the positive side, home, education, and business loans still support the financial growth of millions.This growing gap shows that financial education is no longer optional — it’s necessary.


Borrow Wisely, Not Emotionally

Loans are powerful tools. Used correctly, they help you build assets, grow your career, and secure your future. Misused, they create stress, limit freedom, and drain wealth.A good loan builds your life; a bad loan breaks your peace. In an era of easy EMIs and effortless borrowing, real strength lies in making informed, mindful, strategic choices.


(The writer is a Chartered Accountant based in Thane. Views personal.)

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